Time for a Change

Mavericks 99
Bucks 133

This Mavericks season is like a David Lynch movie: there are several good parts...but in the end, it leads nowhere.

Skin, from the Ben and Skin show on 105.3 The FAN, continues to suggest that it is much more enjoyable to watch a pretty good Mavs team, even if they are not contender, rather than watch a team like the Sacramento Kings, who currently hold the 13th spot in the West. The argument revolves around the fact that the Mavs and Kings were both contending at the same time...and while the Mavs are still decent, the Kings will barely scratch out 20 wins in 2009.

I completely understand that point of view...I just completely disagree with it. Sacramento wasn't competing at the same time as the Mavs, they were about four years ahead of Dallas. Sacramento peaked in 2002 when they reached the Western Conference Finals. Dallas climaxed during the 2006 NBA Finals. Four year difference.

During the four years following the Kings' loss to the Lakers, Sacramento made the playoffs each year but never advanced beyond the semifinals. After their loss to the Lakers in 2002, the organization went straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They were just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.

In 2006, four years after the Kings' collapse, Dallas had a breakdown of their own. The Mavericks lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. In the two years since, Dallas has qualified for the playoffs but has failed to advance beyond the 1st-round. Since the finals' meltdown, the Mavs have gone straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They are just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.

See the familiarities?

Dallas IS the Sacramento Kings, it's just that the Mavs are four years behind in their development process. Want more proof that this team is about as average as you can get? Below are the NBA ranks in most meaningful categories for the Mavericks:

18th - FG %
7th - Defensive FG%
11th - Pts/Game
15th - Defensive Pts/Game
7th - Turnovers
11th - Forced Turnovers
15th - Point Differential

Wow. This isn't a fluke. This isn't simply a bad stretch. This is your Dallas Mavericks. They don't do anything exceptionally well. They don't do anything exceptionally bad. They have become a fan's worst nightmare: a veteran-laden team with no hope.

So, you ask, what can Dallas do to avoid becoming the Kings two years from now? Answer: trade players before they lose value. The Kings fooled themselves into believing that their veteran core was just "a piece" away following the 2002 season (sound familiar) and they waited too long to break that core up:

* The Kings traded Chris Webber in 2005, as a 32-year-old, three years after the team's high-point. Instead of trading him for a significant package, they allowed his value to drop and simply needed to unload his salary...which they did.
* In 2006, they traded Peja Stoyakavic to the Pacers, four years after the team had peaked.
* Last year, Sacramento trade Mike Bibby to the Hawks. The entire NBA understood that the Kings were attempting to unload Bibby, and as a result, the Hawks did not have to trade away any core players to land him.

Now, the Kings are 10-33.

How does this relate to the Mavs? Well, what would Sacramento look like today if they had recognized in 2004 that the core group wasn't getting better? What if they traded Webber when he was 30 instead of 32? What if they traded Peja when he was 26 instead of 28? Bibby 26 instead of 29? Can you understand how much better the Kings would be now if they had done that then?

But they didn't. And why? So that they could make the playoffs for a couple more years only to be slaughtered by the "true" contenders.

How do Maverick fans benefit from watching Dirk, Terry, Kidd and Howard get destroyed by the Lakers in the 1st-round of the playoffs? How will an average veteran team suddenly improve? Easy answer: it won't.

Dirk is 30 right now...and still has tremendous value. At 32-33, not so sure.
Terry is 31 right now...and still has significant value. At 33-34, doubtful.
Kidd is 35 right now...and has value around the league. At 36-37, highly doubtful.

Mark...buddy...do the right thing. Sacrifice a little revenue and success right now for a quicker turnaround in the near future. If not, fans will need to prepare themselves for a 5+ year stretch of really bad, hopeless basketball. Obama's inauguration was appropriately scheduled because it's time for a change.