Friday, January 30, 2009

The Devin Harris Mirage

I was happy when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by happy, I mean discouraged/depressed/miserable. So let’s try this again:

I was discouragingly and depressingly miserable when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. I don't feel any better after saying it, but like Deion says, "I'm about the truth.”

Obvious-Statement Warning: Trading Harris for Jason Kidd was a very poor move for the Mavericks.

And while it seems like a relatively obvious assessment, I continue to see comments like this, from Eddie Sefco of the Dallas Morning News:
“According to reports leaking out across the country, former Maverick Devin Harris has been named as a reserve to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by the way, there's virtually no way Harris would have reached that height had he stayed in Dallas.

Why not? Why would there be “no way” for Harris to reach those heights in Dallas?

Take a look at Devin's 2007-2008 Mavericks statistics:

30.4 minutes/game
14.4 points/game
5.3 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%

Now compare to his 2008-2009 Nets' statistics:

35.7 minutes/game
21.6 points/game
6.5 assists/game
2.34 assists/turnover
.439 - FG%
.303 - 3-point FG%

Very solid and his numbers this year are better…but Harris is basically the same player in New Jersey that he was in Dallas - except that he plays five more minutes each game with the Nets than he did with the Mavericks. If Harris had averaged 35.7 minutes per game with Dallas last year, as he does with the Nets this year, look at his factored-out statistics:

35.7 minutes/game
17 points/game
6.2 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%

In other words, if Harris had simply played more minutes while in Dallas, his numbers would be very comparable to his New Jersey All-Star numbers. In reality, there is a very good chance that Harris could have reached “these heights” as a Maverick…he simply needed to play more.

As a Net, Harris does score at a higher rate...but that is a result of taking more shots, not taking better shots. His field-goal percentages this year are much worse than they were in Dallas. If you want to argue that Harris would have never taken as many shots in Dallas as he does in New Jersey, meaning that he would have never averaged 20 points/game, that might hold some water; however, with Howard hurt for much of the season and Stackhouse no longer an option, I would suggest that Harris would be an integral part of the Rick Carlisle’ offense.

Another Interesting Note:

Last year, most Maverick fans and Dallas columnists believed that Avery Johnson needed to go. His offense was nonexistent. He looked overmatched. The players enjoyed his personality about as much as anyone with ears enjoys listening to Kevin Kiley on ESPN. In other words, the players hated him.

In Avery’s “slower-than-a-Jim-Garrett-jog” offense, Harris' production favorably compared to his All-Star statistics. Harris scores more in New Jersey, but his assist-rate is almost identical and his field-goal percentages were much higher when he was a Maverick. Again, his stats are better this year because he plays more minutes than in the past.

Just face it - the trade was horrible. Stop trying to justify it by throwing out qualifications like, "Sure, he is good now...but he never would have been that good as a Maverick." No qualifications are needed. It was a poor trade then, it is a poor trade now.

Simply join me in being happy for Devin.

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