Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Miami Heat: Validity of Original Concerns

Coming into this series, most commentary surrounded the juxtaposition of the veteran-laden Mavericks team facing a young and explosive Miami Heat. However, as the series has progressed, 26-year-old LeBron is the player that continues to disappear down the stretch.

Some have opined that LeBron is simply deferring to Wade while others have cited the Dallas defense as a reason for the LeBron Houdini act. Both assertions are probably correct in some respects, but one issue doesn't seem to garner the same level of attention as the aforementioned explanations: LeBron is tired.

"LeBron is 26," Dwyane Wade said. "He’s not going to wear down."

Are we sure about that?

Upon LeBron's arrival, most basketball analysts asserted that Miami's lack of depth would detrimentally affect the team's long-term potential. Commentators referenced the grind of an 82 game regular season and the physical toll dished out during a run through the Eastern Conference postseason. To its credit, the Heat shrugged off the critiques and rolled through the Eastern conference, leaving a trail of bloody teams in their wake. Depth has not been an issue for the team as a whole and the cyborg known as LeBron James has shown no ill-effects of the increased workload.

Until now.

After Game 4, James is now a combined 3-of-12 in the 4th quarter throughout the Finals. Why? Fatigue seems like a logical explanation.

LeBron has been asked to play substantially more minutes per game during this postseason than any other player still standing. Through 19 postseason games, James is averaging 44 minutes/game. Dirk has averaged the most playing time for the Mavericks, coming in at 39 minutes/game.

While that may not seem like a significant difference, consider the fact that each of the players mentioned have played in 19 postseason games this season.

Total Postseason Minutes
LeBron: 836
Dirk: 741

LeBron has played an additional 95 minutes this posteason...essentially equating to playing two more postseason games than Dirk has, in terms of minutes played. And these have not been low-pressure minutes. LeBron's minutes involve being one of the two primary offensive options on every possession of the game while also being asked to lock down one of the opposing team's best scorers. For 44 minutes. Every game. All season long.

Another issue: LeBron's heavy workload didn't begin in the playoffs. During the regular season, James had the sixth-highest per-game average in terms of minutes played at 39 minutes/game. Dirk averaged 34.

Regular Season Minutes
LeBron: 3063
Dirk: 2503

LeBron played 560 more minutes than Dirk during the regular season. In other words, he essentially played almost 12 additional regular season games in terms of minutes played. If you combine the minutes in the regular season with the postseason minutes, James has played approximately 14 more games than Nowitzki throughout this season.

Despite LeBron's gifted athleticism and physical build, playing almost every minute of every game during the regular season and throughout a grueling postseason has to eventually affect one's production.

While we like to believe that James was built with metal and steel, it appears that he may be made of flesh and blood after all.