After a 2-2 road trip in which Dallas defeated two teams with winning records:
Mavericks' record: 25-19 (.568 winning percentage)
vs. losing teams: 18-6 (.750 winning-percentage)
vs. winning teams: 7-13 (.350 winning-percentage)
* 1-7 (.125 winning %) against the top-4 Western Conference teams (LA, SA, DEN, NO)
* 1-3 (.250 winning %) against the top-4 Eastern Conference teams (CLE, BOS, ORL, ATL)
In their 13 losses against winning teams, the Mavericks have lost by an average of 10 points. In other words, Dallas isn't losing at the buzzer, they are getting manhandled.
...
38 Games Remaining
22 games remaining against teams with winning records
16 games remaining against teams with losing records
Ugly Projections
22 games against winning teams x .350 winning % = ~8 wins
16 games against losing teams x .750 winning % = 12 wins
Summary:
Mavs project to go 8-14 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 12-4 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 45-38
Good news: their projections this week are slightly better than last week (43-39)
Bad news: their projections still suggest that Dallas will miss the playoffs
But I have turned a new leaf and have adopted a newly-created philosophy for this year's Mavericks. I am not going to worry about watching the Lakers destroy Dallas in the playoffs. I am not going to worry about Josh Howard's fascination with a hideous outside jump shot. I am not going to remind myself that this team is going nowhere.
Instead, I will simply adjust the NBA time-line a bit. I will consider March and April as the Mavericks' playoff run. During the last month of the season, Dallas will be playing in their postseason. Every game will be meaningful. The AAC should have an electric atmosphere.
Think about it: even if the Mavs make the playoffs this year, they might win one or two games, giving them a total of five or six postseason matches.
If you adopt my view, Dallas will have no less than 15-20 playoff-quality games down the stretch.
Here is my Maverick Playoff Breakdown:
1st-Round: March 15 - 27
During those 12 days, the opponent highlights include the Lakers, Pistons, Hawks and Nuggets. If things go poorly, just like in the real playoffs, Dallas may be out of it before the semifinals begin. But assuming that Dallas wins a few of those contests...the Mavericks will advance to the next stage in their 'playoff' run:
Conference Semifinals: March 29 - April 5
In the 2nd-round, Mavericks' opponents include Cleveland, Miami and Phoenix. Again, they will be challenged, but what else would you expect from the NBA postseason? It will not be easy, but the Mavs will control their own destiny. If they succeed, they will reach their toughest task:
Conference Finals: April 8 - 15
During this brutal stretch, Dallas will face off against Utah, New Orleans (twice) and Houston. The Mavs will play five games in an 8-day stretch, including four games against winning teams. If Dallas can navigate their way through the brutal season finale, they will have advanced to their championship:
Championship Series
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This will be something to look forward to. The underrated Mavericks, led by Dirk and Jason Kidd, against the super-team, led by Kobe Bryant. David vs. Goliath. Dallas Academy vs. Covenant School. Keanu Reevs vs. any other actor. An underdog story for the ages.
If you adopt my view, Dallas qualifying for the playoffs will be like reaching the championship. Playing the Lakers in the 1st-round will BE their championship series.
Does this idea take a little bit of outside-the-box thinking? Sure. Is it slightly pathetic? I think so. But Dallas fans have not had many reasons to celebrate lately. So join me, support the Mavs, and you can witness playoff basketball in March!
No comments:
Post a Comment