The Devin Harris Mirage

I was happy when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by happy, I mean discouraged/depressed/miserable. So let’s try this again:

I was discouragingly and depressingly miserable when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. I don't feel any better after saying it, but like Deion says, "I'm about the truth.”

Obvious-Statement Warning: Trading Harris for Jason Kidd was a very poor move for the Mavericks.

And while it seems like a relatively obvious assessment, I continue to see comments like this, from Eddie Sefco of the Dallas Morning News:

“According to reports leaking out across the country, former Maverick Devin Harris has been named as a reserve to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by the way, there's virtually no way Harris would have reached that height had he stayed in Dallas.”

Why not? Why would there be “no way” for Harris to reach those heights in Dallas?

Take a look at Devin's 2007-2008 Mavericks statistics:

30.4 minutes/game
14.4 points/game
5.3 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%

Now compare to his 2008-2009 Nets' statistics:

35.7 minutes/game
21.6 points/game
6.5 assists/game
2.34 assists/turnover
.439 - FG%
.303 - 3-point FG%

Very solid and his numbers this year are better…but Harris is basically the same player in New Jersey that he was in Dallas - except that he plays five more minutes each game with the Nets than he did with the Mavericks. If Harris had averaged 35.7 minutes per game with Dallas last year, as he does with the Nets this year, look at his factored-out statistics:

35.7 minutes/game
17 points/game
6.2 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%

In other words, if Harris had simply played more minutes while in Dallas, his numbers would be very comparable to his New Jersey All-Star numbers. In reality, there is a very good chance that Harris could have reached “these heights” as a Maverick…he simply needed to play more.

As a Net, Harris does score at a higher rate...but that is a result of taking more shots, not taking better shots. His field-goal percentages this year are much worse than they were in Dallas. If you want to argue that Harris would have never taken as many shots in Dallas as he does in New Jersey, meaning that he would have never averaged 20 points/game, that might hold some water; however, with Howard hurt for much of the season and Stackhouse no longer an option, I would suggest that Harris would be an integral part of the Rick Carlisle’ offense.

Another Interesting Note:

Last year, most Maverick fans and Dallas columnists believed that Avery Johnson needed to go. His offense was nonexistent. He looked overmatched. The players enjoyed his personality about as much as anyone with ears enjoys listening to Kevin Kiley on ESPN. In other words, the players hated him.

In Avery’s “slower-than-a-Jim-Garrett-jog” offense, Harris' production favorably compared to his All-Star statistics. Harris scores more in New Jersey, but his assist-rate is almost identical and his field-goal percentages were much higher when he was a Maverick. Again, his stats are better this year because he plays more minutes than in the past.

Just face it - the trade was horrible. Stop trying to justify it by throwing out qualifications like, "Sure, he is good now...but he never would have been that good as a Maverick." No qualifications are needed. It was a poor trade then, it is a poor trade now.

Simply join me in being happy for Devin.

Greg Ellis - Poor Man's TO

Greg Ellis is at it again. In an exclusive interview with Ben and Skin on 105.3 The FAN, Ellis provided a verbal expose on contradiction.

His Role:
Ellis wants to play every down, not solely in passing situations. He indicated that he was unhappy about the fact that Anthony Spencer generally played on 1st and 2nd down...allowing Ellis to enter the game only on 3rd down plays. He also mentioned that when in the game, he was often asked to drop in coverage rather than rush the passer.

So he did not play on every down, and when in the game, he was not put in the position to make an impact on the game.

Contradiction:
From the age of 23 to 32, Greg Ellis started 133 games. He was the primary pass-rushing option for the Cowboy defense. During those 133 starts, Ellis totaled 56.5 sacks.

During his prime years, in which Ellis was used "properly" as a full-time player focused on rushing the quarterback, he averaged .45 sacks each game. His season high was nine sacks, in 2004.

During the Wade Phillips era, the 32-33 year-old Ellis has been used as a 3rd-down specialist in 29 games. In those 29 games, Ellis has totaled 20.5 sacks.

During his later years, in which Ellis was used "improperly" as a part-time player in passing situations, he averaged .71 sacks each game. His season high was 12.5 sacks, in 2007.

Breakdown:
Prime Years (age 23-31) as a full-time player
124 Games
56.5 Sacks
.45 Sacks/Game

Veteran Years (age 32-33) as a part-time player
29 Games
20.5 Sacks
.71 Sacks/Game

NFL players typically slow down as they approach their mid-30's. Ellis, on the other hand, has increased his productivity during that time. But yet, he feels that he has been used "improperly?" He set his career mark last year by registering 12.5 sacks, 3.5 more than his previous high, but he wasn't positioned to be successful. Really?

In 2008, while being asked to "drop into coverage" on many of his plays, Ellis registered his third highest sack total of his career. But Ellis isn't happy about his role? I don't get it.

Team chemistry:

Ellis indicated that the 2008 Cowboys did not feature good team chemistry. He said that the team consisted of a collection of talent but that each person was not pulling in the same direction. He said that distractions prevented the team from gelling together.

Contradiction:
Greg, when you say that guys were "pulling in different directions," do you mean like when an aging player complains about the way that he is being used, despite the fact that he is coming off of the two most productive seasons of his career? Would that be an example of guys not pulling in the same direction?

Pot, meet kettle. On one hand, Ellis proclaims that the team needs to focus on working towards a common goal, but on the other, he continues to complain about his role on the team.

Guys like Ellis and Owens just don't get it. They are all for team...as long as the team does things their way. Sure, anyone can be a team player when things are going your way, but how do they respond when something goes against them? Ellis and Owens respond by complaining. They don't say that they will have to find a way to be more productive on each opportunity, they just project the blame on others.

And sorry, but for Ellis and Owens, it is not team-first, personal-second...it's personal-first, second, third...team-fourth. Ellis complained immediately after the 2007 season, the season in which Dallas went 13-3, about his lack of playing time.

Owens complained after the second Redskin game in 2008, a game in which Dallas won, about his lack of touches.

Seriously, Ellis is not a bad guy, by all accounts, but Dallas needs someone that can simply call it like it is. They need someone on the staff that can sit a player down and explain the facts to them:

"Greg, you set your career high with 12.5 sacks in 2007...in this system. You made your only Pro Bowl appearance...in this system. You totaled your third-highest sack total of your career in 2008...in this system. We are getting more out of your ability than anyone has up to this point in your career. Period."

Ellis is right about one thing, this team lacks chemistry. Hopefully someone will help him understand that he is part of the problem, not the solution.

Mavericks' Playoff Run Starts Sooner Than You Think

After a 2-2 road trip in which Dallas defeated two teams with winning records:

Mavericks' record: 25-19 (.568 winning percentage)
vs. losing teams: 18-6 (.750 winning-percentage)
vs. winning teams: 7-13 (.350 winning-percentage)
* 1-7 (.125 winning %) against the top-4 Western Conference teams (LA, SA, DEN, NO)
* 1-3 (.250 winning %) against the top-4 Eastern Conference teams (CLE, BOS, ORL, ATL)

In their 13 losses against winning teams, the Mavericks have lost by an average of 10 points. In other words, Dallas isn't losing at the buzzer, they are getting manhandled.

...

38 Games Remaining
22 games remaining against teams with winning records
16 games remaining against teams with losing records

Ugly Projections
22 games against winning teams x .350 winning % = ~8 wins
16 games against losing teams x .750 winning % = 12 wins

Summary:
Mavs project to go 8-14 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 12-4 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 45-38

Good news: their projections this week are slightly better than last week (43-39)
Bad news: their projections still suggest that Dallas will miss the playoffs

But I have turned a new leaf and have adopted a newly-created philosophy for this year's Mavericks. I am not going to worry about watching the Lakers destroy Dallas in the playoffs. I am not going to worry about Josh Howard's fascination with a hideous outside jump shot. I am not going to remind myself that this team is going nowhere.

Instead, I will simply adjust the NBA time-line a bit. I will consider March and April as the Mavericks' playoff run. During the last month of the season, Dallas will be playing in their postseason. Every game will be meaningful. The AAC should have an electric atmosphere.

Think about it: even if the Mavs make the playoffs this year, they might win one or two games, giving them a total of five or six postseason matches.

If you adopt my view, Dallas will have no less than 15-20 playoff-quality games down the stretch.

Here is my Maverick Playoff Breakdown:

1st-Round: March 15 - 27
During those 12 days, the opponent highlights include the Lakers, Pistons, Hawks and Nuggets. If things go poorly, just like in the real playoffs, Dallas may be out of it before the semifinals begin. But assuming that Dallas wins a few of those contests...the Mavericks will advance to the next stage in their 'playoff' run:

Conference Semifinals: March 29 - April 5
In the 2nd-round, Mavericks' opponents include Cleveland, Miami and Phoenix. Again, they will be challenged, but what else would you expect from the NBA postseason? It will not be easy, but the Mavs will control their own destiny. If they succeed, they will reach their toughest task:

Conference Finals: April 8 - 15
During this brutal stretch, Dallas will face off against Utah, New Orleans (twice) and Houston. The Mavs will play five games in an 8-day stretch, including four games against winning teams. If Dallas can navigate their way through the brutal season finale, they will have advanced to their championship:

Championship Series
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

This will be something to look forward to. The underrated Mavericks, led by Dirk and Jason Kidd, against the super-team, led by Kobe Bryant. David vs. Goliath. Dallas Academy vs. Covenant School. Keanu Reevs vs. any other actor. An underdog story for the ages.

If you adopt my view, Dallas qualifying for the playoffs will be like reaching the championship. Playing the Lakers in the 1st-round will BE their championship series.

Does this idea take a little bit of outside-the-box thinking? Sure. Is it slightly pathetic? I think so. But Dallas fans have not had many reasons to celebrate lately. So join me, support the Mavs, and you can witness playoff basketball in March!

Inside the Numbers: The T.O. Myth

When reports surfaced earlier this week suggesting that the Cowboys may cut ties with polarizing receiver, Terrell Owens, Dallas sports conversations heated up. Just like the locker-room, fans are split: those for T.O. and those against T.O.

While both arguments hold some water, they both generally focus on the divisiveness of Owens along the lines of:

Against…."He has a history of destroying organizations..."
For………"T.O. has changed...don't judge him on his past."

Just for a second, let's ignore the fact that Owens has more baggage than Del Griffin in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Let's simply focus our attention on T.O.'s on-field production.

Fans like KB the Cowboy Homer, a frequent caller on the Ben and Skin show, continue to promote that Owens remains an elite receiver. KB has actually perpetuated several T.O. "myths" that need to be debunked:

Myth #1: Owens' year-end stats prove that he is a top-flight receiver.

Let's take a look:

69 catches (22nd in the NFL)
1052 yards (12th...)
65 yards/game (14th...)
15 yards/catch (15th...)
4.2 yards after catch (48th...)
10 Touchdowns (6th...)

Pretty solid numbers and the stats suggest that he might be the 15th-20th best receiver in football. Unfortunately for ‘sit-ups-in-my-driveway,’ simply looking at year-end numbers doesn't tell the whole story.

Owens had zero 100-yard games through the first 10 games of the season. The "elite" receiver did not even broach the 90-yard mark during that period. Throughout the season, T.O. struggled as each Cowboy opponent pressed him at the line of scrimmage. When did that change? In week 11, when the San Francisco 49ers decided that they were going to play a soft cover-2. Their conservative game-plan allowed Dallas receivers to gain a free release off of the line of scrimmage and provided Owens with space to work.

In that game, Owens caught 7 passes for 213 yards. This was one of two 100-yard receiving games for T.O. during 2008. One of two. In other words, this game was a fluke. The 49ers were the ONLY team that chose not to press Owens at the line of scrimmage. T.O. took advantage. While it was fun to watch, that was not the T.O. that we saw all year. It was the exception...the deviation from the norm...the oddity.

Let's look at Owens' numbers if you remove the 49er-anomaly. For statistical balance, I also excluded his worst statistical performance (2 catches, 17 yards at Green Bay). In other words, throw out his best, throw out his worst and let’s see what we get:

14 games
60 catches
822 yards
59 yards/game (27th in the NFL)
13.7 yards/catch (31st...)
9 Touchdowns

So, in 14 of the 16 games, T.O. amassed a very average 57 yards/game. He averaged 13.7 yards/catch. Mediocrity at its best. Which statistics do you believe reflect the "real" Owens? The one game in which the defense backed off? Or the other 15 games in which Owens looked extremely ordinary?

Myth #1...debunked.

Myth #2: As a big-play guy, T.O. consistently threatens opponents with his ability to "break out."

The explosive big-play threat, Owens, totaled six 100-yard games in 2007. In 2008, he produced two. In other words, in 14 games this year, T.O. did not eclipse the century mark in receiving yards. Here is brief list of guys that posted more 100-yard games than Owens:

Andre Johnson (8), Steve Smith (8), Larry Fitzgerald (7), Roddy White (7), Calvin Johnson (5), Greg Jennings (5), Randy Moss (4), Reggie Wayne (4)

I know what you are thinking: 'those are all top-level receivers. There aren't many people that can replicate what guys like Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson bring to the table.' While you are correct, some continue to claim that Owens is an elite receiver...so I thought it might be interesting to compare him to actual top-flight guys.

But then I decided to lower my standards a bit - Owens is 35 - so I created this list of players that also had more 100-yard games during 2008:

Wes Welker (4), Lance Moore (3), Anquan Boldin (3), Brandon Marshall (3), Steve Breaston (3), Eddie Royal (3), Marques Colston (3)

Again, I know what you are thinking: 'OK but those guys all play in pass-happy systems. Of course guys like Welker and Marshall will amass extensive yardage.'

- So I created this list of guys that play with unproven quarterbacks and/or in a normal offensive-system, and included their number of 100-yard games:

Antonio Bryant (6), Lee Evans (4), Bernard Berrian (4), Hines Ward (4), Vincent Jackson (3), Santana Moss (3), Braylon Edwards (3), Dwayne Bowe (2), Desmond Mason (2), Isaac Bruce (2), Donald Driver (2), Justin Gage (2), Matt Jones (2), Desean Jackson (2), TJ Houshmandzadeh (2), Mark Clayton (2) and Dennis Northcutt (2)

This seriously made me laugh out loud. T.O. complains about Romo, the 8th-highest rated quarterback in the NFL, and the guys listed above are matching Owens' production with quarterbacks like: Jeff Garcia, Gus Frerotte, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Tyler Thigpen, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Garrard.

If only T.O. could play with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he would be great again! Sorry T.O., it's just not that hard to find guys that can produce a couple 100-yard games each season. They are all over the place.

Myth #2...debunked.

It all boils down to this: T.O. had one great game in 2008, a game in which the defense decided to play a soft cover-2. In the other 15 games, Owens was extremely ordinary. Sorry, but “elite” receivers don’t produce two 100-yard games. “Elite” receivers don’t lead the league in drops. At this point in his career, T.O. is much closer to Isaac Bruce and Derrick Mason than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson…but don’t expect KB the Cowboy Homer to agree.

Time for a Change

Mavericks 99
Bucks 133

This Mavericks season is like a David Lynch movie: there are several good parts...but in the end, it leads nowhere.

Skin, from the Ben and Skin show on 105.3 The FAN, continues to suggest that it is much more enjoyable to watch a pretty good Mavs team, even if they are not contender, rather than watch a team like the Sacramento Kings, who currently hold the 13th spot in the West. The argument revolves around the fact that the Mavs and Kings were both contending at the same time...and while the Mavs are still decent, the Kings will barely scratch out 20 wins in 2009.

I completely understand that point of view...I just completely disagree with it. Sacramento wasn't competing at the same time as the Mavs, they were about four years ahead of Dallas. Sacramento peaked in 2002 when they reached the Western Conference Finals. Dallas climaxed during the 2006 NBA Finals. Four year difference.

During the four years following the Kings' loss to the Lakers, Sacramento made the playoffs each year but never advanced beyond the semifinals. After their loss to the Lakers in 2002, the organization went straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They were just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.

In 2006, four years after the Kings' collapse, Dallas had a breakdown of their own. The Mavericks lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. In the two years since, Dallas has qualified for the playoffs but has failed to advance beyond the 1st-round. Since the finals' meltdown, the Mavs have gone straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They are just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.

See the familiarities?

Dallas IS the Sacramento Kings, it's just that the Mavs are four years behind in their development process. Want more proof that this team is about as average as you can get? Below are the NBA ranks in most meaningful categories for the Mavericks:

18th - FG %
7th - Defensive FG%
11th - Pts/Game
15th - Defensive Pts/Game
7th - Turnovers
11th - Forced Turnovers
15th - Point Differential

Wow. This isn't a fluke. This isn't simply a bad stretch. This is your Dallas Mavericks. They don't do anything exceptionally well. They don't do anything exceptionally bad. They have become a fan's worst nightmare: a veteran-laden team with no hope.

So, you ask, what can Dallas do to avoid becoming the Kings two years from now? Answer: trade players before they lose value. The Kings fooled themselves into believing that their veteran core was just "a piece" away following the 2002 season (sound familiar) and they waited too long to break that core up:

* The Kings traded Chris Webber in 2005, as a 32-year-old, three years after the team's high-point. Instead of trading him for a significant package, they allowed his value to drop and simply needed to unload his salary...which they did.
* In 2006, they traded Peja Stoyakavic to the Pacers, four years after the team had peaked.
* Last year, Sacramento trade Mike Bibby to the Hawks. The entire NBA understood that the Kings were attempting to unload Bibby, and as a result, the Hawks did not have to trade away any core players to land him.

Now, the Kings are 10-33.

How does this relate to the Mavs? Well, what would Sacramento look like today if they had recognized in 2004 that the core group wasn't getting better? What if they traded Webber when he was 30 instead of 32? What if they traded Peja when he was 26 instead of 28? Bibby 26 instead of 29? Can you understand how much better the Kings would be now if they had done that then?

But they didn't. And why? So that they could make the playoffs for a couple more years only to be slaughtered by the "true" contenders.

How do Maverick fans benefit from watching Dirk, Terry, Kidd and Howard get destroyed by the Lakers in the 1st-round of the playoffs? How will an average veteran team suddenly improve? Easy answer: it won't.

Dirk is 30 right now...and still has tremendous value. At 32-33, not so sure.
Terry is 31 right now...and still has significant value. At 33-34, doubtful.
Kidd is 35 right now...and has value around the league. At 36-37, highly doubtful.

Mark...buddy...do the right thing. Sacrifice a little revenue and success right now for a quicker turnaround in the near future. If not, fans will need to prepare themselves for a 5+ year stretch of really bad, hopeless basketball. Obama's inauguration was appropriately scheduled because it's time for a change.

Cowboys' Coaching Conundrum

After ending the season on a down note, Jerry Jones emphatically defended his head coach, Wade Phillips. Jones preached stability and consistency. He said that Wade "deserved" another chance, considering that 2008 was marred with injuries to Romo, Felix Jones, Terrance Newman, Anthony Spencer, Jason Witten and a slew of others.

All of this happened in 2008. Since then, these coaches have officially become available:

Mike Holmgren - 13 playoff wins; 1 Super Bowl appearance; .542 playoff winning pct.
Mike Shanahan - 8 playoff wins; 2 Super Bowls; .615 playoff winning pct.
Tony Dungy - 7 playoff wins; 1 Super Bowl; .538 playoff winning pct.
Jon Gruden - 5 playoff wins; 1 Super Bowl; .556 playoff winning pct.
Bill Cowher - 12 playoff wins; 1 Super Bowl (2 appearances); .571 playoff winning pct.

At age 61, Wade Phillips has zero playoff wins. ZERO. His winning percentage sits at a crisp .000

On December 28th, when I heard Jerry indicate that Wade was coming back, like most Cowboys fans...I threw up in my mouth a little bit. But being the optimist that I am, I tried to justify the move. The best argument that I could muster was that there really weren't very many good options out there.

I wasn't sold on Garrett after the season he had produced. Haslett? Mangini? Picking between those guys was like deciding whether to attend a Jonas Brothers concert or committing suicide. Neither was a great option...but at least suicide would end quickly!

So, at the time, Jerry really didn't have many good options to choose from. That has changed; Holmgren, Shanahan, Dungy, Gruden and Cowher?! Has there ever been an offseason featuring five Super-Bowl-winning coaches? Not that I can remember.

And while some may suggest that these guys won't work for Jerry Jones, I would disagree. If there is one thing that you can say about Jerry, it's this: he gets what he wants. Like Richard from Tommy Boy said, "he could sell a ketchup popsicle to a lady in white gloves." If Jerry wants one of those guys, chances are, he gets him.

The question remains, what does Jerry want? Is he willing to release some of his power as GM and allow a proven coach to have input on player personnel decisions? Does he want to add some additional excitement to the franchise as they head into Jerry World? Or, does he feel that he inadvertently sabotaged Wade by bringing guys like Pacman on-board? Does Wade deserve a third and deciding season?

I have no idea what Jerry is thinking right now, but I do know one thing: Jerry's decision today is much more difficult than it was on December 28th.

TO, Roommates and Other Ramblings

As was reported by Ed Werder, the Dallas Cowboys will soon consider the option of cutting ties with enigmatic wide-receiver, Terrell Owens. I have to give TO his props though: he has taken his divisive abilities to a whole new level. It appears that the presence of TO has divided not only the locker room, but also has affected the front-office (Stephen Jones - against TO; Jerry Jones - for TO) and the media.

Hell, I despise TO...and even I'm a little torn on the issue. When the Cowboys first signed Owens, it reminded me of a situation I was faced with in college.

I had a college buddy named Chuck. Chuck was the type of guy that could make anything interesting: he was always the life of the party and people were attracted to him. There was never a dull moment around Chuck.

But there was a downside: Chuck was never considered the most responsible friend. In other words, you didn't want to rely on him to pick you up from the airport. He wasn't the guy that you wanted to put in charge of walking your dogs when you were out of town. He was what he was: a fun guy to hang out with.

When moving to new apartments, we decided to allow Chuck to become a new roommate. We justified it by telling ourselves that, with the extra person, we could afford a nicer place, we would have more spending cash and Chuck would really bring a level of excitement to the dwelling. We made it make sense.

At first it worked out great; we had a few parties, it was fun to be around the guy and the extra cash came in handy. But then a few problems crept up. Chuck wasn't great at doing dishes. Chuck's room was littered with week-old chimichangas stuck to plates and cups who's remnants had created their own ecosystem. He was loud at night, he didn't pay his portion of the bills on time and he never recognized that Tuesday night wasn't really the time for a party.

Having a nicer place was cool and so was having a little extra spending dough. But at some point, I wanted to be able to have a normal dinner with my girlfriend without being interrupted by an half-naked Chuck armed with a sombrero and a bong asking me if I had seen his lighter!

Plus, he never went to class so he was always there. Always. I became incresingly annoyed when driving home because I knew that Chuck would be lounging on the couch watching my tv. I knew that the kitchen would be a disaster. I knew the trash would be overflowing. And I knew that, no matter what I said to him, he wasn't going to change. He was Chuck.

It just was no longer worth it.

My girlfriend and I moved out. We got a smaller place, it wasn't as nice, it wasn't as big, the pool wasn't as appealing. But it was just ours. No trashed kitchens. No fights about what show to watch. No sitting in bed debating whether or not to go kick his ass for playing guitar at three in the morning. It was nice.

And while I wouldn't trade that experience, because it gave me some really great stories, it was simply time for us to mature. We probably missed out on some crazy parties, but avoiding those distractions allowed us to focus on school.

And while the Cowboys new 'house' will not be as big or shiny without TO, what good is a nice, big house if you can't enjoy it? Without TO, the Cowboys will be able to focus...and that's a good thing.

Ugly Reality For Mavericks

As noted yesterday, the Mavericks have struggled against teams with winning records. After losing to New Orleans last night, Dallas continued that trend.

Scary Numbers:
Mavericks' record: 22-17 (.564 winning percentage)
vs. winning teams: 5-13 (.280 winning-percentage)
vs. losing teams: 17-4 (.809 winning-percentage)

Up to this point in the season, Dallas has played 21 games against teams with a losing record and only 18 against teams with a winning record. Unfortunately for Dallas, that is about to change.

43 games remaining:
26 games remaining against teams with a winning record
17 games remaining against teams with a losing record

Scary Projections:
26 games against winning teams x .280 winning-percentage (vs winning teams) = 7 wins
17 games against losing teams x .809 winning-percentage (vs losing teams) = 14 wins

Summary:
Mavs project to go 7-19 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 14-3 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 43-39

Last year, Golden State finished at 48-34...and missed the playoffs. Wow.

Mavericks: Turn the Page

The Mavericks are 22-16, have lost three in a row and currently hold the ninth spot in the Western Conference.

Record Breakdown:

* The Mavericks are 5-12 against teams with a winning record.
* 17 of the Mavericks' 22 victories have come against teams with a losing record.

In other words, Dallas beats bad teams and does not beat good teams...a pretty bad trend if you are thinking playoffs.


Like Brett Favre, the Mavericks simply need to recognize that they just aren't very good anymore. Their window of opportunity closed as soon as Dwayne Wade crushed the Mavericks' soul during the 2006 NBA Finals.

It's time to say goodbye to Dirk. It's time to say goodbye to Kidd. It's time to say goodbye to Terry. It's time to start over. Fresh.

Dirk showed last night (44 points) that he is still playing at the top of his game. He has tremendous value around the league. Kidd currently ranks 5th in the NBA in assists/game and is 2nd in steals/game. He has lost a step, but still can offer a contending team experienced point-guard play. Jason Terry has basically wrapped up the 6th-man of the Year Award already. He absolutely has trade value.

If Cuban analyzes this team with his mind instead of his heart, he will realize that they just aren't anywhere close to being a contender. The Dallas' payroll will not allow for any impact players to be added, they do not have any useful draft picks (the Devin Harris trade just keeps on giving) and this whole thing is stale.

I've read this book; I know how it ends. The sooner we close this chapter of Mavericks' basketball, the sooner we can begin the next one.

Neighbors of a Serial Killer

The Texas Rangers have asked Michael Young to change positions and he is not having any of it. After speaking with General Manager Jon Daniels about moving to third base, Young said,

"I'm not playing third base. I'm pretty adamant about my stance. I told them I wanted to be traded."

Have you ever watched a documentary on serial killers? You know, the ones where their neighbors are interviewed and always say something to the effect of, "He was always such a nice man. He was friendly, he helped me trim my tree, etc...I just can't believe that he did this!"

Well, that's kind of how many Ranger fans feel about Michael Young right now. Is comparing Young to a serial killer a little extreme? Probably...but being a lifelong Ranger fan will have that effect on you!

For years, Ranger fans have considered Michael Young a leader. They considered him the "face" of the Ranger organization. He has the reputation of a guy that will do anything to win. He is Mr. Team.

They may now be questioning whether they mislabeled their beloved shortstop. Let's examine:

1. After the 2003 season, when Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees, Michael Young volunteered to move from 2nd base to shortstop. Fans and reporters considered this the ultimate "team-first" move.

But was it really?

Let's see, Young moved from 2nd base to the most important defensive position on the field. Teams value shortstops more than they do 2nd basemen. As a result, shortstops get paid more, on average, than 2nd basemen.

Three years after moving to shortstop, Young received a 5 year, $80 million dollar contract. Coincidence? I think not.

2. During the past few seasons, Young was often quoted as saying that "I am not interested in rebuilding...I am interested in getting better now."

The Rangers attempted to improve "now" by trading away prospects for veteran pitchers Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Brandon McCarthy. The Rangers also lost Armando Galarraga when they signed veteran starter Jason Jennings.

The "win now" moves rewarded Young and the Rangers with one of the worst rotations in baseball. But hey, at least they weren't "rebuilding."

3. In 2007, Texas acquired highly-rated shortstop prospect, Elvis Andrus, in the Mark Teixeira trade. Last week, the Rangers asked Michael Young to slide to 3rd to create an opening for the sweet-fielding Andrus. Young refused and instead, asked to be traded.

He went on to say,

"The biggest misconception is that I was asked to move to third base. I was never asked. I was flat-out told. I was told I was playing third base. I felt that I had absolutely no say. I don't feel like there was any discussion or dialogue about the matter."

If that doesn't say "team," I don't know what does!

Guess what, Mike? Thousands of people have lost their jobs within the last few months. You are a baseball player. You "play" for a living. Sorry that you do not get to make out the lineup and pick your position. Despite earning $80 million over the next five years to play a game, you feel “disrespected” because your boss did not "ask" you to change positions? Really?

Wow.

Look, Young is probably a good guy. He works hard, he plays hard and he has carved out a nice career for himself. He is the self-appointed leader of the Texas Rangers. He has a clean-cut look, is well-spoken and has been extremely productive while in Texas.

Unfortunately for Mike, fans do not ignore "me-first" comments because you are a "good guy." Despite being the "face" of the organization, and after nine productive years with the Texas Rangers, Young will soon be traded.

And like the neighbors of a serial killer, hundreds of fans, who have seen Young as a team-first leader, will be amazed to learn that he is not the guy that they had come to know.

Top 5 Reasons Why Dallas Cut Pacman

#5: Fans were actually looking forward to Patrick Crayton punt-returns...

#4: Instead of the protecting Pacman from others, the security-detail focused on protecting themselves from Pacman...

#3: The Cowboys could handle one arranged shooting, but two...well that crossed the line.

#2: Even Jerry Jones thought that Pacman rambled when speaking...

...and the #1 reason why Dallas cut Pacman:

Jerry realized that Pacman's "hitman" nickname was not a reflection of his tackling ability...

A Little Perspective

Fans tend to see the world as it pertains to their team, their players, their expectations. Many Cowboy fans feel that championship-caliber teams don't lose to teams like the Rams. People continue to suggest that "championship" teams don't lose games that they should win.

Just to add some perspective, I have compiled a list depicting many hideous losses experienced by current playoff teams:

New York Giants
Lost to Cleveland 14-35
Went to OT with Cincinnati

Philadelphia Eagles
Tied with Cincinnati 13-13
Lost to Washington (who had nothing to play for) 3-10

Arizona
Lost to New York Jets 35-56
Lost to Philadelphia 20-48
Lost to New England 13-44

Carolina Panthers
Lost to Tampa Bay 3-27

Minnesota Vikings
Lost to Chicago 41-48

Baltimore Ravens
Lost to Indianapolis 3-31
Lost to New York Giants 10-30

Indianapolis Colts
Lost to Chicago 13-29
Lost to Green Bay 14-34

Miami Dolphins
Lost to Arizona 10-31
Lost to New England 28-48

Pittsburgh Steelers
Lost to Philadelphia 6-15

San Diego Chargers
Lost to Buffalo 14-23
Lost to New Orleans 32-37

Tennessee Titans
Lost to New York Jets 13-34


Yes, the Cowboys have problems. And yes, they need to improve in many areas, but there is a reason why the Giants were destroyed by a horrible Browns team. There is a reason why the Eagles tied the Bengals. There is a reason why only one of the current NFC playoff teams made the tournament last year (Giants).

The reason: parity.

Now that talent level is somewhat equal (sorry Lions), football has become all about execution. The Cowboys do not need an infusion of talent, they need improved execution. How does that happen? Coaching change? Coordinator change? Continuity?

Only time will tell, but Dallas fans need to face the fact that the Cowboys are now just "one of the teams" in the NFL. Having an owner committed to winning no longer allows Dallas to overpay for free-agents. Jerry can no longer have a better backup unit than other team's starters.

America's Team is now just one team in America.

Longhorns: Sweet Validation

Sweet Validation

Not being in the BCS Championship...
Not getting credit for playing defense...
Not winning the Heisman Trophy...

Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns had plenty to be upset about. By completing 71 percent of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns, McCoy took his frustration out on the Ohio State defense. This game, however, was a better battle than most had expected it to be.

Unlike previous years, the Buckeyes did not crumble in the BCS spotlight. The Buckeye offense rushed for more than 200 yards against the Horns' 2nd ranked rushing defense. Daniel Herron capped the Buckeye rushing attack by scoring on a 15-yard touchdown dash late in the 4th quarter. The score gave the Buckeyes a 21-17 lead with 2:05 remaining. There was only one thing standing between Ohio State and their national redemption: Colt McCoy.

The Heisman runner-up took over at the Longhorns' 19-yard-line with 1:55 remaining. He proceeded to complete 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards including converting on a 4th-down play on the Buckeyes' 40-yard-line. Two plays later, from the 26-yard-line, McCoy completed the biggest pass of his Texas career. Quan Cosby caught a short slant across the middle, broke a tackle and streaked towards the end-zone for the winning score.

Texas 24, Ohio State 21 - Classic.

Colt not only proved that he was one of the best quarterbacks in college football, he also validated the Horns' spot in the rankings and helped disprove accusations that Big 12 offenses racked up yards/points due to laxidasical conference defenses. Even Tim Tebow suggested as much.

Bowl results don't appear to validate such claims. So far, four of the five Big-12's top-ranked offensive units have posted impressive results. Texas Tech scored 34 against an SEC opponent, Oklahoma State scored 31 on a PAC-10 team and Missouri scored 30 against Big 10 opposition.

On Monday night, Colt McCoy did what he has done all year: whatever he wanted. Ohio State's "legit" defense had no answers for the Texas star in the second half. Overall, McCoy completed 41 of 58 passes for 413 yards, throwing for two touchdowns and one interception. Wow.

The Buckeye defense had allowed 164 passing yards/game this season. McCoy exceeded that...in the first half. Overall, Texas totaled 488 yards against the Top 5 defense.

Including the Texas victory, the four top-scoring Big 12 bowl teams have averaged 30 points/game against teams from the Big-10, PAC-10 and the SEC.

I don't know if the Big 12 earned national respect.
I don't know if Texas deserves to receive any AP first-place votes.
I don't know if McCoy deserved the Heisman.

I do know one thing: Colt and the Horns have six months to enjoy sweet validation...and they deserve it.

Valley Ranch Exclusive: Cowboys Year in Review

Valley Ranch Exclusive: Cowboys Year in Review


After allowing the season finale to digest, Jerry Jones decided that he needed to meet with Wade Phillips for his annual performance review. The Dallas Sports Keg was able to obtain an exclusive transcript of that conversation:

Jerry: Wade, I appreciate you meeting with me here in Valley Ranch. I apologize for interrupting your off-season slow-walk training, but I felt that we needed to discuss what went wrong this year.

Wade: Well, you said that something went wrong, I never said that. That's what you said.

Jerry: I consider getting beaten by 38 in the final game of the season as an indication that "something went wrong."

Wade: Sure the Eagles beat us on the scoreboard, but we won the 4th quarter 3-0 and we had more passing yards than they did. So if you really think about it, we won two out of three!

Jerry: What about Roy Williams? I traded for another 1st round player to provide this offense with an explosive option opposite TO and you didn't do anything with him. What the hell, Wade?

Wade: Well Jerry, that's kind of a funny story. You see, we already had one Roy Williams on the team...but he is a safety, not a wide-receiver. We didn't realize it until we reviewed the tapes last week, but apparently Jason [Garrett] and I had accidentally added the defensive Roy Williams to our offensive packages instead of the really tall one.

Jerry: That's just unacceptable. And let's discuss these "changes" that you have vowed to make. What types of changes will you be implementing?

Wade: I have heard several people say that you can't teach an old dog new tricks, but I ain't a dog so I have never understood that phrase. Plus, in dog years, I think that I'm only like four years-old, so I still have plenty of time to change.

Jerry: Enough, Wade, our fans want to know what changes you are going to make.

Wade: In 2009, I'm going to be a different man. I'm switching from a box of powdered donuts for my morning breakfast to a box of glazed donuts. You see Jerry, I would get powdered-sugar all over my play-sheets and that led to several in-game mistakes. Remember when we ran the option against the Ravens at the most critical point of our season?

Jerry: Unfortunately, I do.

Wade: That was actually supposed to be "option #2" which would have been a quarterback sneak. But the powdered-sugar covered the "#2" part of the play-sheet...so I figured that the genius, that's what I call Jason, must have designed a new option play. It didn't work, but it sure was fun to watch...wasn't it Jerry?

Jerry: No, it wasn't. Actually, I can't think of many things that were fun to watch this year. I can't do this anymore right now. Mike Shannahan is in town and we are meeting for lunch. We can resume this next week.

Fiesta Bowl: Changing Expectations

Changing Expectations

When the 2008 college football preseason rankings were published, Ohio State generally sat at the top. The Longhorns, on the other hand, were not even picked to finish second...in their own conference. Five months later, the roles are reversed. Texas sits near the top of the rankings and the Buckeyes have just managed to stay within the Top 10. At the beginning of the year, Buckeyes were thinking BCS Championship or bust. Now, a Fiesta Bowl victory would do just fine.

At the beginning of the year, Texas would have been thrilled to know that it would receive a bid to a BCS Bowl. After going 11-1 and beating Oklahoma, Longhorns will arrive in Arizona with a twinkle of disappointment in their eyes. Despite changing expectations, this year's Fiesta Bowl pits two storied franchises against one another and features one of the most anticipated bowl games of the year.

The 2008 Texas Longhorns own an impressive resume. Mac Brown leads a group that excels in every aspect of the game: offensively, defensively and within special teams. There may not be a more well-rounded team in college football.

Texas Offense
Colt McCoy, the Heisman Trophy Runner-Up, leads the 5th-ranked scoring offense in both passing and rushing. He is the heart and soul of this team. McCoy completed 77% of his passes, threw for 32 touchdowns, ran for 576 yards and scored an additional 10 rushing touchdowns.

The offense as a whole littered the national rankings in a multitude of categories. They ranked 5th in scoring, 9th in yards/game, 11th in passing and 2nd in 3rd-down conversion percentage. Texas spreads the field and Colt gets the ball out of his hands quickly. His top two targets, Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby, each have good hands and have combined to catchr 55% of Colt's completions. If Shipley and Cosby are not open, McCoy has shown a propensity to tuck the ball and run for positive yardage.

Texas Defense
The Longhorn's young defense improved as the season progressed. With a squad littered with underclassman, Texas has one of the youngest defensive units in college football. Despite the lack of experience, and despite playing in the score-happy Big 12, Texas ranks 20th in scoring defense, 2nd in rush defense and held their last two opponents to single-digits.

Texas will face an elusive run-pass threat in Terrelle Pryor. The Longhorns have experience facing similarly-styled quarterbacks. Oklahoma State's Zac Robinson, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Baylor's Robert Griffin each present a similar dynamic. Texas played well against each quarterback and should be prepared for the elusive Pryor.

On the line: The Longhorns are not happy about how the BCS played out this year. They feel that they deserve to play in the BCS Championship Game. Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech all tied for the Big 12 South title. Due to tiebreaker rules, Oklahoma was handed the division, despite losing to Texas on a neutral field. Florida, the other national contender, lost at home to an unranked team earlier this season. Texas' only loss came on the road against a Top 10 team on a last-second pass. Texas feels that their body of work stands up against anyone in the nation.

The season is not over. If Texas dominates Ohio State and the BCS Champion does not win convincingly, the Longhorns still have the opportunity to finish 1st in the final AP poll. That should provide Texas with plenty of motivation.

Key Matchup: Texas Defensive Line vs. Terrelle Pryor
In order to contain the Ohio State offense, the Longhorns defensive line must keep Pryor in the pocket. Not only can Pryor hurt you running the ball once he breaks contain, he can also throw well while on the run.


The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing in their 4th BCS Bowl Game in a row. The last two have been rather unkind to the Buckeyes. Not only was Ohio State embarrassed in the last two BCS Championship Games, but the Big Ten conference as a whole lost significant credibility around the country. In addition, Texas and Ohio State played a two-game series in 2005 and 2006. Each team won on the road and this game will provide one team's fans with bragging rights for the foreseeable future.

Ohio State Offense
The Buckeyes play a physical brand of football. Terrelle Pryor leads an offense focused on running the football, playing conservatively and winning the field-position battle. The Buckeyes have the 29th ranked rushing attack and 45th in passing offense. Their 28 points/game ranks 43rd in the country.

Terrelle Pryor, the heralded freshman quarterback, continues to learn on the fly. Despite only passing for less than 125 yards/game, Pryor has posted an 8-1 record as the starter. He extends plays with his feet, he helps move the chains and he doesn't turn the ball over. Chris "Beanie" Wells takes much of the pressure off of his rookie quarterback. Beanie averages 121 yards/game and should be fully healthy for the January 5th contest.

Ohio State Defense
As usual, the Buckeyes are built around a physically-gifted defense. Nationally, they rank 7th in scoring defense, 9th in yards/game, 6th in passing defense and 19th in rushing defense. They have allowed 13 or fewer points in five of their last six games.

The Buckeyes are led by All-American linebacker James Laurinaitis and cornerback Malcolm Jennings, considered to be one of the best defensive-backs in college football. Penn State, who scored 40 points/game, only manage 16 against the stingy Ohio State defense. USC scoring 35 three months ago remains the only blemish for this defensive unit.

On the Line: After being embarrassed in each of the last two BCS Championship Games, the Buckeyes will look to restore credibility to their program and the Big Ten Conference as a whole. If they can knock of a legitimate contending team like Texas, Ohio State can reclaim their place as a year-in, year-out championship-caliber team.

Matchup to Watch: Terrelle Pryor vs. Texas Secondary
Pryor has attempted more than 20 passes in a game only one time, the loss against Penn State. Texas will stack the line of scrimmage and force the Buckeyes to make plays through the passing game.If Ohio State expects to keep this game close going into the 4th quarter, Pryor will be forced to take advantage of a run-focused defense by connecting on big plays through the air.