Michael Jordan. Tiger Woods. David Ortiz. John Elway.
What do those guys have in common? They are all considered “clutch” performers. When the shot-clock is running down, on the 18th green, in the bottom of the ninth, at the two-minute warning…these guys come through. They have ice running through their veins. They are instinctual killers. In crunch-time, these guys get it done.
Michael Young is that guy for the Texas Rangers. In other words, if Texas finds itself in a tight game – Ranger fans want Michael Young at the plate. He works hard, he is committed, he has a smart approach and he finds a way to get the job done, or at least so fans think.
On the flipside - former Ranger Alex Rodriquez has been widely labeled as a "choke-artist" and a guy that produces "hollow" numbers. Sure – he hits 50 homeruns every year – but most of those happen during blowouts and lost-causes, right?
Over at Newberg, we decided to delve further into the discussion on "clutch" hitting. First, we needed to define the parameters surrounding a "clutch" situation. For logistical purposes, we decided to consult baseball-reference and use their "late and close" statistics.
"Late and Close" situations include: "plate-appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck."
In other words - we have defined "clutch" as a time when the game is on the line - after the 6th inning. While any at-bat with runners-in-scoring-position could qualify as "clutch," I just don't believe that a situation in the 1st inning compares to the same situation in the 9th.
I have listed career statistics and "clutch" statistic to determine whether said player actually "rises to the challenge" or "crumbles" during late-game, pressure situations.
Let’s compare the American Hero, Michael Young, to the Dark Villain, Alex Rodriguez:
Clutch: plate-appearances during the 7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
Alex Rodriguez
Career: .306/.389/.578/.967
Clutch: .279/.375/.530/.905
Change in OPS: -.062
Michael Young
Career: .300/.346/.442/.788
Clutch: .262/.301/.358/.659
Change in OPS: -.129
While ARod does see his production drop during the late-stages of a close game, his slip in production is nowhere near that of Young.
Young’s production drops by 16%.
ARod’s production drops by 6%.
That’s a pretty significant difference, and aside from that, ARod still produces an OPS north of .900 in “clutch” situations while Michael Young produces a very Brad Ausmus-like .659, nearly .250 points below ARod.
People want Young to be a clutch performer because he is a "good guy" and has been the face of the franchise for a long time. People remember Young's triple in the All-Star game and they quickly forget his rally-killing double-plays. People will believe what they want to believe, and people want to believe that Young is clutch.
On the flip side, people want ARod to "choke" in big situations because he is an easy guy to root against. People always root against the best. People want to create a chink in ARod's armor by labeling him as a "choke-artist." Unfortunately, the numbers just do not support these beliefs.
For comparison purposes, I have also added statistics for several of Young's teammates and former teammates including: Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd, Nelson Cruz, Milton Bradley and Mark Teixeira..
Josh Hamilton
Career: .300/.370/.538/.908
Clutch: .252/.355/.457/.812
Change in OPS: - .096
Hank Blalock
Career: .274/.337/.465/.802
Clutch: .278/.336/.452/.788
Change in OPS: -.014
Ian Kinsler
Career: .290/.360/.473/.832
Clutch: .254/.350/.354/.704
Change in OPS: -.128
Milton Bradley
Career: .280/.370/.457/.827
Clutch: .278/.376/.474/.850
Change in OPS: +.023
David Murphy
Career: .286/.334/.480/.814
Clutch: .293/.340/.457/.797
Change in OPS: -.017
Marlon Byrd
Career: .278/.343/.407/.750
Clutch: .232/.318/.368/.686 (though he has about an .880 OPS since joining Texas)
Change in OPS: -.064
Mark Teixeira
Career: .290/.378/.541/.919
Clutch: .282/.379/.555/.933
Change in OPS: +.014
Michael Young
Career: .300/.346/.442/.788
Clutch: .262/.301/.358/.659
Change in OPS: -.129
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Career: .261/.328/.400/.728
Clutch: .256/.350/.356/.705
Change in OPS: -.023
Nelson Cruz
Career: .251/.312/.431/.743
Clutch: .231/.302/.359/.661
Change in OPS: -.082
Alex Rodriguez
Career: .306/.389/.578/.967
Clutch: .279/.375/.530/.905
Change in OPS: -.062
Breakdown - Change in OPS during "clutch" situations:
Current Rangers
Blalock: -.014
Murphy: -.017
Salty: -.023
Byrd: -.064
Cruz: -.082
Hamilton: -.096
Kinsler: -.128
Young: - .129
Former Teammates
Bradley: +.023
Teixeira: +.014
ARod: -.062
As you can see, most players experience a drop in production during the later innings. This probably happens because - late in games - teams make pitching decisions based on matchups (ie...left-handed pitcher vs. left-handed batter, etc...). That would help explain why the three switch-hitters (Bradley, Teixeira and Salty) do not experience a large variance in production. If the opponent brings in a lefty, the switch-hitters just flip around to the right-side. Advantage mitigated.
Though most hitters do see a slight dip in production, Young has the biggest Ranger discrepancy between his career statistics and his production during "late and close" situations. Again - no one stat can tell you everything. But after reviewing these numbers, it's difficult to argue that Michael Young "rises to the challenge" in "clutch" situations. If anything, the numbers indicate that he folds during "late and close" situations. In fact – in “late and close situations” – Young is less productive than anyone projected to be in the Rangers’ opening-day lineup.
Sometimes the truth hurts.
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