Coming into this series, most commentary surrounded the juxtaposition of the veteran-laden Mavericks team facing a young and explosive Miami Heat. However, as the series has progressed, 26-year-old LeBron is the player that continues to disappear down the stretch.
Some have opined that LeBron is simply deferring to Wade while others have cited the Dallas defense as a reason for the LeBron Houdini act. Both assertions are probably correct in some respects, but one issue doesn't seem to garner the same level of attention as the aforementioned explanations: LeBron is tired.
"LeBron is 26," Dwyane Wade said. "He’s not going to wear down."
Are we sure about that?
Upon LeBron's arrival, most basketball analysts asserted that Miami's lack of depth would detrimentally affect the team's long-term potential. Commentators referenced the grind of an 82 game regular season and the physical toll dished out during a run through the Eastern Conference postseason. To its credit, the Heat shrugged off the critiques and rolled through the Eastern conference, leaving a trail of bloody teams in their wake. Depth has not been an issue for the team as a whole and the cyborg known as LeBron James has shown no ill-effects of the increased workload.
Until now.
After Game 4, James is now a combined 3-of-12 in the 4th quarter throughout the Finals. Why? Fatigue seems like a logical explanation.
LeBron has been asked to play substantially more minutes per game during this postseason than any other player still standing. Through 19 postseason games, James is averaging 44 minutes/game. Dirk has averaged the most playing time for the Mavericks, coming in at 39 minutes/game.
While that may not seem like a significant difference, consider the fact that each of the players mentioned have played in 19 postseason games this season.
Total Postseason Minutes
LeBron: 836
Dirk: 741
LeBron has played an additional 95 minutes this posteason...essentially equating to playing two more postseason games than Dirk has, in terms of minutes played. And these have not been low-pressure minutes. LeBron's minutes involve being one of the two primary offensive options on every possession of the game while also being asked to lock down one of the opposing team's best scorers. For 44 minutes. Every game. All season long.
Another issue: LeBron's heavy workload didn't begin in the playoffs. During the regular season, James had the sixth-highest per-game average in terms of minutes played at 39 minutes/game. Dirk averaged 34.
Regular Season Minutes
LeBron: 3063
Dirk: 2503
LeBron played 560 more minutes than Dirk during the regular season. In other words, he essentially played almost 12 additional regular season games in terms of minutes played. If you combine the minutes in the regular season with the postseason minutes, James has played approximately 14 more games than Nowitzki throughout this season.
Despite LeBron's gifted athleticism and physical build, playing almost every minute of every game during the regular season and throughout a grueling postseason has to eventually affect one's production.
While we like to believe that James was built with metal and steel, it appears that he may be made of flesh and blood after all.
Showing posts with label Dallas Mavericks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dallas Mavericks. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Podcast #3 - Mavs Win
Podcast #3 - Mavericks Playoff Win
I discuss the Mavericks playoff win, Mark Cuban and Dirk's bad wrap with my good buddy Mike Tennison.
I discuss the Mavericks playoff win, Mark Cuban and Dirk's bad wrap with my good buddy Mike Tennison.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Hope is a Strategy
You can call them old. You can call them unathletic. You can call them pretenders.
But you cannot call the Mavericks quitters. After the gut-wrenching loss on Saturday, this team had every reason to tank Game 4 last night. The team faced the impossible task of attempting to overcome a 3-0 series deficit while facing a team that had beaten them seven straight times during the season.
After the meltdown on Saturday, I half-expected Dallas to not show up last night. But Dirk and Co. did show up. Despite trailing throughout the majority of the game, the Mavericks continued to fight. Every time they rallied to get within a couple of points, Denver would hit an off-balance three or get to the foul-line. But Dallas was relentless.
Dirk dominated (as he has all series long, despite his comments regarding Denver's defense). Barea added a spark off the bench. Overall - given the situation - it was a fun game to watch. Does Dallas have a chance of winning this series? Um...no. But in a sport where teams constantly fold when facing insurmountable odds, it was refreshing to see guys playing hard until the final seconds.
Dallas will now travel to Denver to face the Nuggets in Game 5. It's a long shot, but what if the Mavericks find a way to scratch out a Game 5 win in Denver? They haven't been blown out during any game in this series and they have been within striking distance during the 4th quarter of each road game.
Yes, it's unlikely that Dallas pulls another one out...but what if they do? What if Chauncy Billups rolls an ankle? What if Carmelo tweaks his back? Crazier things have happened.
And if Dallas could somehow squeak out a game on the road, this will suddenly be a series again. If nothing else, last night gave Mavericks fan hope - and that is all that we could ask for.
But you cannot call the Mavericks quitters. After the gut-wrenching loss on Saturday, this team had every reason to tank Game 4 last night. The team faced the impossible task of attempting to overcome a 3-0 series deficit while facing a team that had beaten them seven straight times during the season.
After the meltdown on Saturday, I half-expected Dallas to not show up last night. But Dirk and Co. did show up. Despite trailing throughout the majority of the game, the Mavericks continued to fight. Every time they rallied to get within a couple of points, Denver would hit an off-balance three or get to the foul-line. But Dallas was relentless.
Dirk dominated (as he has all series long, despite his comments regarding Denver's defense). Barea added a spark off the bench. Overall - given the situation - it was a fun game to watch. Does Dallas have a chance of winning this series? Um...no. But in a sport where teams constantly fold when facing insurmountable odds, it was refreshing to see guys playing hard until the final seconds.
Dallas will now travel to Denver to face the Nuggets in Game 5. It's a long shot, but what if the Mavericks find a way to scratch out a Game 5 win in Denver? They haven't been blown out during any game in this series and they have been within striking distance during the 4th quarter of each road game.
Yes, it's unlikely that Dallas pulls another one out...but what if they do? What if Chauncy Billups rolls an ankle? What if Carmelo tweaks his back? Crazier things have happened.
And if Dallas could somehow squeak out a game on the road, this will suddenly be a series again. If nothing else, last night gave Mavericks fan hope - and that is all that we could ask for.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The Worst 30 Seconds of the Year
Hopefully you Mavericks' fans have had time to wipe away the tears. The missed foul call will continue to garner the most attention around the Dallas area (the league has announced that the game officials did "miss" the foul call), but that isn't the story - at least not to me. I hate to twist the knife, but let's look at the last 31 seconds of Saturday's game:
Take a look:
Dallas took a 4-point lead with 31.1 seconds remaining in the game. Denver proceeded to take a timeout. Dallas simply needed to play good, solid defense and, if nothing else, force the Nuggets to use some clock. That didn't happen.
Denver inbounded the ball and Carmelo Anthony scored in 2.6 seconds. Seriously? 2.6 seconds of defense? In the biggest game of the season - coming out of a timeout - that's all the Mavs had to offer? If they would have played - I don't know - seven seconds of defense, that would have probably been enough. If the Mavericks could have held Denver scoreless for seven freaking seconds, even if they scored, the Nuggets would have then faced the uphill battle of fouling Dallas in an attempt to get the ball back.
Allowing Denver to score in 2.6 seconds left 28.5 seconds on the game-clock, resulting in a 4.5-second difference between the game-clock and the shot-clock. instead of having to foul, Denver just needed a defensive stand. This leads us to the next Dallas miscue...
As mentioned above, there was a 4.5-second difference between the game-clock and shot-clock (28.5 to 24). If Dallas could have simply run clock and gotten a shot off with 1-2 seconds left on the shot-clock, Denver - at best - would have gotten the ball back with 2-3 seconds remaining. That didn't happen.
With 10 seconds remaining on the shot-clock, Dirk began his offensive approach. After spinning and adding a pump-fake, Dirk implausibly took a shot with 5 seconds remaining on the shot-clock. Denver rebounded the miss with 6.5 seconds left in the game.
I love Dirk, but that is simply unacceptable. Think about it: Dirk shot with 5 seconds remaining on the shot-clock and Denver rebounded with 6.5 seconds. Had Dirk used the remaining 5 seconds before shooting, Denver maybe gets the ball back with 2 seconds left. Two seconds on the clock limits the offensive team to a catch-and-shoot situation. Six seconds provides an offense with all kinds of options...as we had the pleasure of seeing.
All that matters now is that Dallas trails 3-0. Was a foul-call missed? Sure...it sucks, but let's not pretend that the missed-call cost the Mavericks the game. When you have a 4-point lead...at home...with 31 seconds remaining...you don't lose without making significant mistakes. The Mavericks need only look in the mirror should they want to see the Game 3 culprits.
* Terry 3pt Shot - [DAL 105-101] - 00:31.1
* Denver Timout - 00:31.1
* Anthony Driving Dunk Shot - [DEN 103-105] - 00:28.5
* Dallas Timeout - 00:21.1
* Nowitzki Jump Shot - Billups Rebound - 00:06.5
* Anthony 3pt Shot - [DEN 106-105] - 00:01.0
* Dallas Timeout - 00:01.0
* Nowitzki 3pt Shot - [DEN 106-105] - Final
Take a look:
Dallas took a 4-point lead with 31.1 seconds remaining in the game. Denver proceeded to take a timeout. Dallas simply needed to play good, solid defense and, if nothing else, force the Nuggets to use some clock. That didn't happen.
Denver inbounded the ball and Carmelo Anthony scored in 2.6 seconds. Seriously? 2.6 seconds of defense? In the biggest game of the season - coming out of a timeout - that's all the Mavs had to offer? If they would have played - I don't know - seven seconds of defense, that would have probably been enough. If the Mavericks could have held Denver scoreless for seven freaking seconds, even if they scored, the Nuggets would have then faced the uphill battle of fouling Dallas in an attempt to get the ball back.
Allowing Denver to score in 2.6 seconds left 28.5 seconds on the game-clock, resulting in a 4.5-second difference between the game-clock and the shot-clock. instead of having to foul, Denver just needed a defensive stand. This leads us to the next Dallas miscue...
As mentioned above, there was a 4.5-second difference between the game-clock and shot-clock (28.5 to 24). If Dallas could have simply run clock and gotten a shot off with 1-2 seconds left on the shot-clock, Denver - at best - would have gotten the ball back with 2-3 seconds remaining. That didn't happen.
With 10 seconds remaining on the shot-clock, Dirk began his offensive approach. After spinning and adding a pump-fake, Dirk implausibly took a shot with 5 seconds remaining on the shot-clock. Denver rebounded the miss with 6.5 seconds left in the game.
I love Dirk, but that is simply unacceptable. Think about it: Dirk shot with 5 seconds remaining on the shot-clock and Denver rebounded with 6.5 seconds. Had Dirk used the remaining 5 seconds before shooting, Denver maybe gets the ball back with 2 seconds left. Two seconds on the clock limits the offensive team to a catch-and-shoot situation. Six seconds provides an offense with all kinds of options...as we had the pleasure of seeing.
All that matters now is that Dallas trails 3-0. Was a foul-call missed? Sure...it sucks, but let's not pretend that the missed-call cost the Mavericks the game. When you have a 4-point lead...at home...with 31 seconds remaining...you don't lose without making significant mistakes. The Mavericks need only look in the mirror should they want to see the Game 3 culprits.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Brett Shipp is a Sad, Little Man
Dirk Nowitzki comments, from the Dallas Morning News:
Why does Brett Shipp suck so bad?
"It's pretty obvious that I'm going through a tough time in my personal life right now," Dirk said. "Like I always have, I want to kind of keep my private life private...I'm more than happy to answer basketball questions, but I think at this point, I just can't talk about it."
Dirk's session with the media horde ended abruptly when WFAA Ch. 8's Brett Shipp attempted to ask about claims by Cristal Taylor, the 37-year-old woman arrested, that she is engaged to Dirk and pregnant with his child.
"I'm not commenting on that," Dirk said repeatedly.
Why does Brett Shipp suck so bad?
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Getting a Raw Deal
Take a look at these playoff numbers:
25.1 points/game
11.0 rebounds/game
45% shooting
87.6% free-throw shooter
37% three-point shooter
Pretty impressive, right? You would think that someone who produces these type of post-season numbers would deserve the most utmost respect from players and former players around the league. He doesn't.
Dirk Nowitzki has become one of the best playoff producers in the history of the NBA. Every year, he takes his game to another level when the playoffs begin. He scores more. He drives more. He rebounds more. And yes, he is criticized more.
After the first game of the Denver series, Dirk was asked about the three different defenders that the Nuggets threw at him and what they each do to make his life difficult. He responded by saying:
TNT analysts Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Chris Webber took this opportunity to blast Nowitzki. Webber suggested that Dirk was "soft" because,
Barkley dogpiled by adding,
Kenny then claimed,
I love Kenny and Charles, but what the hell are they talking about? Seriously. Dirk was asked about each defender and what each does differently. He answered the question. He said that Birdman was long and challenged shots while Kenyon Martin and Nene were more physical.
He didn't say that they 'could stop him.'
He didn't say that he hated playing them.
He didn't say that he couldn't score against them.
He simply described their defensive styles.
I just don't get it. If Dirk had scored 10 points in each game and then said that Denver's defense was just 'too good to overcome,' I could understand the criticism. But Dirk isn't struggling. In actuality, he is dominating.
For the series, Dirk is shooting 54% (23 of 42), has averaged 31.5 points/game and has pulled down 19 rebounds. Last night, the day after "giving props" to Denver's defense, Dirk put a 35 spot on the Nuggets. If Dirk hadn't said anything, would he have scored 50?
Dirk is just a guy that can't win. Despite having better numbers in the playoffs than he does in the regular season, Dirk still deals with accusations that he can't produce in the clutch (I guess haters missed Game 7 in San Antonio during the Finals' run). Despite refining his game and driving to the rim (something that he was accused of being afraid to do early in his career), Dirk still doesn't get the calls that Wade, Kobe, Lebron and company get.
And despite constantly saying/doing the right things, he can't avoid criticism. It's just idiotic. Dirk gets less respect than any other NBA Superstar that I can remember. The guy has transformed into one of the greatest post-season scorers of all time, and instead of hearing, I don't know - about the fact that he is torching Denver in this series, we only hear that Dirk is "soft" and said something that Kobe would "never" say.
It's really sickening. Maybe on Saturday, when Dirk lights up the scoreboard for another 35 points, he will cheap-shot Kenyon Martin in the back of the head...you know, to gain some street-cred. Apparently, that's what it's all about.
25.1 points/game
11.0 rebounds/game
45% shooting
87.6% free-throw shooter
37% three-point shooter
Pretty impressive, right? You would think that someone who produces these type of post-season numbers would deserve the most utmost respect from players and former players around the league. He doesn't.
Dirk Nowitzki has become one of the best playoff producers in the history of the NBA. Every year, he takes his game to another level when the playoffs begin. He scores more. He drives more. He rebounds more. And yes, he is criticized more.
After the first game of the Denver series, Dirk was asked about the three different defenders that the Nuggets threw at him and what they each do to make his life difficult. He responded by saying:
I think Birdman does a good job because he’s so long. He contests my shot. Martin and Nene are stronger and they try to body me more and Birdman’s just long and when I shoot he can still jump up there and contest the shot. So, yeah, they’ve got three very good defenders.
TNT analysts Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Chris Webber took this opportunity to blast Nowitzki. Webber suggested that Dirk was "soft" because,
I’ve never heard a scorer, I’ve never heard a true warrior, a dog, say 'this guy can check me.'[Dirk didn't say that]
Barkley dogpiled by adding,
One of the keys to being a great player is having so much confidence in yourself…for Dirk to say that guys can stop him, that’s just not cool.[He didn't say that, either]
Kenny then claimed,
It feeds the stereotype that this guy is playing a little soft.[No it doesn't..it just feeds the stereotype that Dirk can understand and speak English]
I love Kenny and Charles, but what the hell are they talking about? Seriously. Dirk was asked about each defender and what each does differently. He answered the question. He said that Birdman was long and challenged shots while Kenyon Martin and Nene were more physical.
He didn't say that they 'could stop him.'
He didn't say that he hated playing them.
He didn't say that he couldn't score against them.
He simply described their defensive styles.
I just don't get it. If Dirk had scored 10 points in each game and then said that Denver's defense was just 'too good to overcome,' I could understand the criticism. But Dirk isn't struggling. In actuality, he is dominating.
For the series, Dirk is shooting 54% (23 of 42), has averaged 31.5 points/game and has pulled down 19 rebounds. Last night, the day after "giving props" to Denver's defense, Dirk put a 35 spot on the Nuggets. If Dirk hadn't said anything, would he have scored 50?
Dirk is just a guy that can't win. Despite having better numbers in the playoffs than he does in the regular season, Dirk still deals with accusations that he can't produce in the clutch (I guess haters missed Game 7 in San Antonio during the Finals' run). Despite refining his game and driving to the rim (something that he was accused of being afraid to do early in his career), Dirk still doesn't get the calls that Wade, Kobe, Lebron and company get.
And despite constantly saying/doing the right things, he can't avoid criticism. It's just idiotic. Dirk gets less respect than any other NBA Superstar that I can remember. The guy has transformed into one of the greatest post-season scorers of all time, and instead of hearing, I don't know - about the fact that he is torching Denver in this series, we only hear that Dirk is "soft" and said something that Kobe would "never" say.
It's really sickening. Maybe on Saturday, when Dirk lights up the scoreboard for another 35 points, he will cheap-shot Kenyon Martin in the back of the head...you know, to gain some street-cred. Apparently, that's what it's all about.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Mavs Remain Resiliant
Dallas beat the Miami Heat yesterday, 98-96. Dirk stepped up, Kidd hit a key shot and Josh Howard - yes that Josh Howard - made a huge impact in the 4th quarter.
Howard was the story - playing only his second game in the last month - scored 18 and made several big plays down the stretch (including taking the game-winning charge with two seconds remaining).
But to me, the more important take away from last night lies within one number: 5.
By winning last night, the Mavericks improved to 17-4 in games decided by five points or less. That has to be significant, right?
Think about playoff basketball: aren't post-season series often decided in the last few minutes of each game? Isn't that what playoff basketball is all about?
I am not completely drunk on Maverick kool-aid, but I am excited to see that this team continues to play resilient basketball. Do they have giant letdowns about once each month? Sure. But for the most part - in big, meaningful games - this team plays hard:
And despite the negative connotation surrounding the prospect of fielding an "old" team, there is something to be said for experience. Jason Kidd appears to have no problem taking - and making - big shots in clutch-time. Dirk is a stud. Terry consistently hits big shots. This team simply presents some very difficult end-game matchup scenarios for their opponents.
The team isn't great - but they have piqued my interest. If they can avoid having a giant letdown in the playoffs, an opening-series showdown with Los Angeles could be interesting.
Howard was the story - playing only his second game in the last month - scored 18 and made several big plays down the stretch (including taking the game-winning charge with two seconds remaining).
But to me, the more important take away from last night lies within one number: 5.
By winning last night, the Mavericks improved to 17-4 in games decided by five points or less. That has to be significant, right?
Think about playoff basketball: aren't post-season series often decided in the last few minutes of each game? Isn't that what playoff basketball is all about?
I am not completely drunk on Maverick kool-aid, but I am excited to see that this team continues to play resilient basketball. Do they have giant letdowns about once each month? Sure. But for the most part - in big, meaningful games - this team plays hard:
And despite the negative connotation surrounding the prospect of fielding an "old" team, there is something to be said for experience. Jason Kidd appears to have no problem taking - and making - big shots in clutch-time. Dirk is a stud. Terry consistently hits big shots. This team simply presents some very difficult end-game matchup scenarios for their opponents.
The team isn't great - but they have piqued my interest. If they can avoid having a giant letdown in the playoffs, an opening-series showdown with Los Angeles could be interesting.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Van Gundy is a Genius
The Mavericks lost another tough road game, this time against the Lakers. Despite a valiant Maverick' comeback, Kobe led the Lakers to a 107-100 victory, sending the Mavericks home after going 2-2 on their 4-game road trip.
Luckily for us, we had the opportunity to listen to the best NBA commentators in the business. Mark Jackson, Jeff Van Gundy and Mike Breen could make a Kings-Clippers game interesting. During this broadcast, after being asked about the Mavericks' "inconsistency," Jeff Van Gundy had a very interesting and accurate take:
Man that makes sense. Think about it: The Jazz have a losing record on the road...are they "consistent?" Portland has lost to the Clippers, Bobcats and the Thunder...are they "consistent?" The Spurs have lost to Milwaukee twice and the Knicks...are they "consistent?"
In the NBA, you are one of three things: 1) an elite team (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic); 2) a hideous team (Wizards, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Thunder, Raptors)...or: 3) in the middle. The Mavericks are clearly "in the middle."
Van Gundy went on to say [paraphrased]:
Again - right on the money. Mavericks' fans have been spoiled by having the opportunity to watch the second most winning franchise this decade (behind San Antonio). Fans now expect Dallas to win 55 games and earn a top spot in the playoffs. It's just not that easy.
As Van Gundy stated, the NBA is about talent. Right now, Dallas just doesn't matchup with the elite teams in the league. We all need to understand that every non-elite team in the league has inconsistent stretches during the season. Every team has a few really bad losses, a few surprising wins and a lot of games decided in the last five minutes. We all need to lower the expectations. Dallas is in the same boat as Utah, Portland, Houston, Denver and New Orleans. Or as Van Gundy said:
Luckily for us, we had the opportunity to listen to the best NBA commentators in the business. Mark Jackson, Jeff Van Gundy and Mike Breen could make a Kings-Clippers game interesting. During this broadcast, after being asked about the Mavericks' "inconsistency," Jeff Van Gundy had a very interesting and accurate take:
"Everyone always wants to label a team as 'inconsistent.' Guess what? There are very few teams that are consistent: the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, Grizzlies and Wizards. Those teams are all consistent: either consistently good - or consistently bad. Everyone else is in the middle."
Man that makes sense. Think about it: The Jazz have a losing record on the road...are they "consistent?" Portland has lost to the Clippers, Bobcats and the Thunder...are they "consistent?" The Spurs have lost to Milwaukee twice and the Knicks...are they "consistent?"
In the NBA, you are one of three things: 1) an elite team (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic); 2) a hideous team (Wizards, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Thunder, Raptors)...or: 3) in the middle. The Mavericks are clearly "in the middle."
Van Gundy went on to say [paraphrased]:
"Of course Dallas has experienced more bad losses this year than in years past. They aren't nearly as talented today as they have been in recent years. Just look at the floor right now - look who is playing: Bass, Singleton, Barea, Wright and Terry. The Mavericks just don't have the talent that they used to have. It's easy to say that 'this team underperformed' or 'that team underperformed,' but it generally comes down to talent. I think that it's a gross misstatement to claim that this Dallas team has underperformed."
Again - right on the money. Mavericks' fans have been spoiled by having the opportunity to watch the second most winning franchise this decade (behind San Antonio). Fans now expect Dallas to win 55 games and earn a top spot in the playoffs. It's just not that easy.
As Van Gundy stated, the NBA is about talent. Right now, Dallas just doesn't matchup with the elite teams in the league. We all need to understand that every non-elite team in the league has inconsistent stretches during the season. Every team has a few really bad losses, a few surprising wins and a lot of games decided in the last five minutes. We all need to lower the expectations. Dallas is in the same boat as Utah, Portland, Houston, Denver and New Orleans. Or as Van Gundy said:
"The Mavericks are right where they should be."
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Mavericks: Better Off Without Howard?
I will complete a more detailed writeup on this subject - but for now - just peruse the "Josh Howard Effect" on the Mavericks:
Record
Dallas’ Record with Howard (45 games):
• 27-18 = .600 winning %
Dallas without Howard (20 games):
• 13-7 = .650 winning %
Points
Points scored with Howard:
• 4516 points/45 games = 100.36
• 100.36 points/game
Points scored without Howard:
• 2069 points/20 games = 103.45
• 103.45 points/game
Point allowed with Howard:
• 4470 points allowed/45 = 99.33
• 99.33 points allowed/game
Points allowed without Howard:
• 2006 points allowed/20 = 100.30
• 100.30 points allowed/game
Point Differential with Howard:
• +1.03
Point Differential without Howard:
• +3.15
Summary
• Dallas has a better winning % without Josh Howard (.650 vs .600).
• Factored out Record (for an entire season):
.650 winning %: 53-29
.600 winning %: 49-33
• Josh Howard has a -2.12 points/game effect on the Mavericks.
• Dallas allows about 1 more point/game without Howard.
• Dallas scored about 3 more points/game without Howard.
Record
Dallas’ Record with Howard (45 games):
• 27-18 = .600 winning %
Dallas without Howard (20 games):
• 13-7 = .650 winning %
Points
Points scored with Howard:
• 4516 points/45 games = 100.36
• 100.36 points/game
Points scored without Howard:
• 2069 points/20 games = 103.45
• 103.45 points/game
Point allowed with Howard:
• 4470 points allowed/45 = 99.33
• 99.33 points allowed/game
Points allowed without Howard:
• 2006 points allowed/20 = 100.30
• 100.30 points allowed/game
Point Differential with Howard:
• +1.03
Point Differential without Howard:
• +3.15
Summary
• Dallas has a better winning % without Josh Howard (.650 vs .600).
• Factored out Record (for an entire season):
.650 winning %: 53-29
.600 winning %: 49-33
• Josh Howard has a -2.12 points/game effect on the Mavericks.
• Dallas allows about 1 more point/game without Howard.
• Dallas scored about 3 more points/game without Howard.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
BASADSKMVDAA Awards - Part One
My buddies Ben and Skin recently asked, "who is the most valuable athlete in the DFW Metroplex?" They didn't ask "who is the best player/athlete," they asked about the "most valuable."
Webster's Definition of Value:
a fair return or equivalent in goods, services, or money for something exchanged
In other words, value directly relates to price. Dirk is a great player - but he is paid like a great player. As a result, he is not the most valuable player in the metroplex - at least not for this exercise.
Dallas Sports Keg will be taking on a 3-part series over the next few days titled: Ben-and-Skin's-and-Dallas-Sports-Keg's-Most-Valuable-DFW-Athlete-Award...also known as BASADSKMVDAA. Not the catchiest moniker - but we're not a freakin' advertising agency! We will examine the Mavericks, Cowboys and Rangers (since Bob Sturm is the only guy in town that watches hockey - we chose not to include the Stars in this exercise).
Part One: Mavericks
Brandon Bass - $826k
19 minutes/game
8.6 points
4.4 rebounds
To compare
Erick Dampier - $9.55 mm
23.6 minutes/game
5.5 points/game
7.2 rebounds/game
Other than the Dampier household, Maverick fans believe that Bass is the better option. If you take salaries into account - it's absolutely no contest.
- Side Note -
When Erick had his first child, do you think that he was only allowed to hold him while standing in a jump-house? Seriously, there is no way the family entrusted stonehands with a baby on any non-bouncy flooring, right? Or maybe they created the "Erick-baby-holding-room" IN the house - installed bouncy floors and walls - that way, when Erick inevitably dropped the infant, he would simply bounce around the room until he finally came to rest.
You know - maybe they could design the room similar to a basketball-return system - the one where when you shoot and the ball travels down a tunnel of netting only to return to the original shooting location. They could build the room angled in a way that would allow the baby to be dropped - bounce harmlessly off the floor, walls and ceiling - before rolling back to Damp's feet. At that point, Erick could again pick up the baby - and seconds later - when he dropped him again, the process would repeat! I am almost positive that the Dampier house has a room like this. If not, he should. Seriously - we are saving lives here!
- Back to original programming -
Dampier makes about 11.5 times more than Bass despite producing similar results. Bass wins this contest - stonehands down.
Mavericks #2
JJ Barea - $1.5 mm
19 minutes/game
7.4 points
3.3 assists
1.40 turnovers
Jason Kidd - $21.3 mm
35 minutes/game
9 points
8.4 assists
2.33 turnovers
Barea's numbers factored out assuming that he also averaged 35 minutes/game, as Kidd does:
Barea (projected totals given 35 minutes/game)
13.6 points (.389 points/minute x 35 minutes)
6.1 assists (.174 assists/minute x 35 minutes)
2.58 turnovers (.074 turnovers/game x 35 minutes)
Obviously, we have to make several assumptions to build these types of comparisons. Could Kidd still hold the "lunch-pale" title if he was only asked to play 20 minutes/game? Would Barea's tiny Puerto-Rican heart hold up for 35 minutes each night? We could go on and on...
But regardless of the assumptions made, Barea appears to be a bargain. He makes about 14-times less than Kidd - yet he scores at a higher rate. Though Kidd still maintains an advantage in the assist department, their overall numbers remain fairly comparable.
Barea scores more points.
Kidd dishes out more assists.
Both turn the ball over at a similar rate.
One makes $21.3 million; one makes $1.5 million.
Bass and Barea are obviously the two most valuable players on the current Mavericks' roster. Deciding between the two was difficult - but please enter our thought process:
Brandon Bass is a 6'8, 240-pound black guy. He is supposed to be a bad-ass athlete. It would actually be an embarrassment to him (and his family) if he wasn't a professional athlete. Barea is a 5'10 Puerto-Rican. He should be pimpin' someone's ride - not playing in the NBA.
When Bass walks into the gym, everyone looks and says, "Man...that dude must play football or basketball. He's a beast!" When Barea enters a gym, you want to hand him your dirty towel and let him know that "shower #3 has some kind of weird fungus and you should probably do some scrubbing."
Congratulations, JJ Barea. By winning the Mavericks' most valuable player award, you have been entered into the BASADSKMVDAA Finals where you will face off against the most valuable players selected from the Dallas Cowboys and the Texas Rangers.
Webster's Definition of Value:
a fair return or equivalent in goods, services, or money for something exchanged
In other words, value directly relates to price. Dirk is a great player - but he is paid like a great player. As a result, he is not the most valuable player in the metroplex - at least not for this exercise.
Dallas Sports Keg will be taking on a 3-part series over the next few days titled: Ben-and-Skin's-and-Dallas-Sports-Keg's-Most-Valuable-DFW-Athlete-Award...also known as BASADSKMVDAA. Not the catchiest moniker - but we're not a freakin' advertising agency! We will examine the Mavericks, Cowboys and Rangers (since Bob Sturm is the only guy in town that watches hockey - we chose not to include the Stars in this exercise).
Part One: Mavericks
Brandon Bass - $826k
19 minutes/game
8.6 points
4.4 rebounds
To compare
Erick Dampier - $9.55 mm
23.6 minutes/game
5.5 points/game
7.2 rebounds/game
Other than the Dampier household, Maverick fans believe that Bass is the better option. If you take salaries into account - it's absolutely no contest.
- Side Note -
When Erick had his first child, do you think that he was only allowed to hold him while standing in a jump-house? Seriously, there is no way the family entrusted stonehands with a baby on any non-bouncy flooring, right? Or maybe they created the "Erick-baby-holding-room" IN the house - installed bouncy floors and walls - that way, when Erick inevitably dropped the infant, he would simply bounce around the room until he finally came to rest.
You know - maybe they could design the room similar to a basketball-return system - the one where when you shoot and the ball travels down a tunnel of netting only to return to the original shooting location. They could build the room angled in a way that would allow the baby to be dropped - bounce harmlessly off the floor, walls and ceiling - before rolling back to Damp's feet. At that point, Erick could again pick up the baby - and seconds later - when he dropped him again, the process would repeat! I am almost positive that the Dampier house has a room like this. If not, he should. Seriously - we are saving lives here!
- Back to original programming -
Dampier makes about 11.5 times more than Bass despite producing similar results. Bass wins this contest - stonehands down.
Mavericks #2
JJ Barea - $1.5 mm
19 minutes/game
7.4 points
3.3 assists
1.40 turnovers
Jason Kidd - $21.3 mm
35 minutes/game
9 points
8.4 assists
2.33 turnovers
Barea's numbers factored out assuming that he also averaged 35 minutes/game, as Kidd does:
Barea (projected totals given 35 minutes/game)
13.6 points (.389 points/minute x 35 minutes)
6.1 assists (.174 assists/minute x 35 minutes)
2.58 turnovers (.074 turnovers/game x 35 minutes)
Obviously, we have to make several assumptions to build these types of comparisons. Could Kidd still hold the "lunch-pale" title if he was only asked to play 20 minutes/game? Would Barea's tiny Puerto-Rican heart hold up for 35 minutes each night? We could go on and on...
But regardless of the assumptions made, Barea appears to be a bargain. He makes about 14-times less than Kidd - yet he scores at a higher rate. Though Kidd still maintains an advantage in the assist department, their overall numbers remain fairly comparable.
Barea scores more points.
Kidd dishes out more assists.
Both turn the ball over at a similar rate.
One makes $21.3 million; one makes $1.5 million.
Bass and Barea are obviously the two most valuable players on the current Mavericks' roster. Deciding between the two was difficult - but please enter our thought process:
Brandon Bass is a 6'8, 240-pound black guy. He is supposed to be a bad-ass athlete. It would actually be an embarrassment to him (and his family) if he wasn't a professional athlete. Barea is a 5'10 Puerto-Rican. He should be pimpin' someone's ride - not playing in the NBA.
When Bass walks into the gym, everyone looks and says, "Man...that dude must play football or basketball. He's a beast!" When Barea enters a gym, you want to hand him your dirty towel and let him know that "shower #3 has some kind of weird fungus and you should probably do some scrubbing."
Congratulations, JJ Barea. By winning the Mavericks' most valuable player award, you have been entered into the BASADSKMVDAA Finals where you will face off against the most valuable players selected from the Dallas Cowboys and the Texas Rangers.
Friday, January 30, 2009
The Devin Harris Mirage
I was happy when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by happy, I mean discouraged/depressed/miserable. So let’s try this again:
I was discouragingly and depressingly miserable when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. I don't feel any better after saying it, but like Deion says, "I'm about the truth.”
Obvious-Statement Warning: Trading Harris for Jason Kidd was a very poor move for the Mavericks.
And while it seems like a relatively obvious assessment, I continue to see comments like this, from Eddie Sefco of the Dallas Morning News:
Why not? Why would there be “no way” for Harris to reach those heights in Dallas?
Take a look at Devin's 2007-2008 Mavericks statistics:
30.4 minutes/game
14.4 points/game
5.3 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%
Now compare to his 2008-2009 Nets' statistics:
35.7 minutes/game
21.6 points/game
6.5 assists/game
2.34 assists/turnover
.439 - FG%
.303 - 3-point FG%
Very solid and his numbers this year are better…but Harris is basically the same player in New Jersey that he was in Dallas - except that he plays five more minutes each game with the Nets than he did with the Mavericks. If Harris had averaged 35.7 minutes per game with Dallas last year, as he does with the Nets this year, look at his factored-out statistics:
35.7 minutes/game
17 points/game
6.2 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%
In other words, if Harris had simply played more minutes while in Dallas, his numbers would be very comparable to his New Jersey All-Star numbers. In reality, there is a very good chance that Harris could have reached “these heights” as a Maverick…he simply needed to play more.
As a Net, Harris does score at a higher rate...but that is a result of taking more shots, not taking better shots. His field-goal percentages this year are much worse than they were in Dallas. If you want to argue that Harris would have never taken as many shots in Dallas as he does in New Jersey, meaning that he would have never averaged 20 points/game, that might hold some water; however, with Howard hurt for much of the season and Stackhouse no longer an option, I would suggest that Harris would be an integral part of the Rick Carlisle’ offense.
Another Interesting Note:
Last year, most Maverick fans and Dallas columnists believed that Avery Johnson needed to go. His offense was nonexistent. He looked overmatched. The players enjoyed his personality about as much as anyone with ears enjoys listening to Kevin Kiley on ESPN. In other words, the players hated him.
In Avery’s “slower-than-a-Jim-Garrett-jog” offense, Harris' production favorably compared to his All-Star statistics. Harris scores more in New Jersey, but his assist-rate is almost identical and his field-goal percentages were much higher when he was a Maverick. Again, his stats are better this year because he plays more minutes than in the past.
Just face it - the trade was horrible. Stop trying to justify it by throwing out qualifications like, "Sure, he is good now...but he never would have been that good as a Maverick." No qualifications are needed. It was a poor trade then, it is a poor trade now.
Simply join me in being happy for Devin.
I was discouragingly and depressingly miserable when I heard that Devin Harris was recently added to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. I don't feel any better after saying it, but like Deion says, "I'm about the truth.”
Obvious-Statement Warning: Trading Harris for Jason Kidd was a very poor move for the Mavericks.
And while it seems like a relatively obvious assessment, I continue to see comments like this, from Eddie Sefco of the Dallas Morning News:
“According to reports leaking out across the country, former Maverick Devin Harris has been named as a reserve to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. And by the way, there's virtually no way Harris would have reached that height had he stayed in Dallas.”
Why not? Why would there be “no way” for Harris to reach those heights in Dallas?
Take a look at Devin's 2007-2008 Mavericks statistics:
30.4 minutes/game
14.4 points/game
5.3 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%
Now compare to his 2008-2009 Nets' statistics:
35.7 minutes/game
21.6 points/game
6.5 assists/game
2.34 assists/turnover
.439 - FG%
.303 - 3-point FG%
Very solid and his numbers this year are better…but Harris is basically the same player in New Jersey that he was in Dallas - except that he plays five more minutes each game with the Nets than he did with the Mavericks. If Harris had averaged 35.7 minutes per game with Dallas last year, as he does with the Nets this year, look at his factored-out statistics:
35.7 minutes/game
17 points/game
6.2 assists/game
2.22 assists/turnover
.483 - FG%
.357 - 3-point FG%
In other words, if Harris had simply played more minutes while in Dallas, his numbers would be very comparable to his New Jersey All-Star numbers. In reality, there is a very good chance that Harris could have reached “these heights” as a Maverick…he simply needed to play more.
As a Net, Harris does score at a higher rate...but that is a result of taking more shots, not taking better shots. His field-goal percentages this year are much worse than they were in Dallas. If you want to argue that Harris would have never taken as many shots in Dallas as he does in New Jersey, meaning that he would have never averaged 20 points/game, that might hold some water; however, with Howard hurt for much of the season and Stackhouse no longer an option, I would suggest that Harris would be an integral part of the Rick Carlisle’ offense.
Another Interesting Note:
Last year, most Maverick fans and Dallas columnists believed that Avery Johnson needed to go. His offense was nonexistent. He looked overmatched. The players enjoyed his personality about as much as anyone with ears enjoys listening to Kevin Kiley on ESPN. In other words, the players hated him.
In Avery’s “slower-than-a-Jim-Garrett-jog” offense, Harris' production favorably compared to his All-Star statistics. Harris scores more in New Jersey, but his assist-rate is almost identical and his field-goal percentages were much higher when he was a Maverick. Again, his stats are better this year because he plays more minutes than in the past.
Just face it - the trade was horrible. Stop trying to justify it by throwing out qualifications like, "Sure, he is good now...but he never would have been that good as a Maverick." No qualifications are needed. It was a poor trade then, it is a poor trade now.
Simply join me in being happy for Devin.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Mavericks' Playoff Run Starts Sooner Than You Think
After a 2-2 road trip in which Dallas defeated two teams with winning records:
Mavericks' record: 25-19 (.568 winning percentage)
vs. losing teams: 18-6 (.750 winning-percentage)
vs. winning teams: 7-13 (.350 winning-percentage)
* 1-7 (.125 winning %) against the top-4 Western Conference teams (LA, SA, DEN, NO)
* 1-3 (.250 winning %) against the top-4 Eastern Conference teams (CLE, BOS, ORL, ATL)
In their 13 losses against winning teams, the Mavericks have lost by an average of 10 points. In other words, Dallas isn't losing at the buzzer, they are getting manhandled.
...
38 Games Remaining
22 games remaining against teams with winning records
16 games remaining against teams with losing records
Ugly Projections
22 games against winning teams x .350 winning % = ~8 wins
16 games against losing teams x .750 winning % = 12 wins
Summary:
Mavs project to go 8-14 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 12-4 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 45-38
Good news: their projections this week are slightly better than last week (43-39)
Bad news: their projections still suggest that Dallas will miss the playoffs
But I have turned a new leaf and have adopted a newly-created philosophy for this year's Mavericks. I am not going to worry about watching the Lakers destroy Dallas in the playoffs. I am not going to worry about Josh Howard's fascination with a hideous outside jump shot. I am not going to remind myself that this team is going nowhere.
Instead, I will simply adjust the NBA time-line a bit. I will consider March and April as the Mavericks' playoff run. During the last month of the season, Dallas will be playing in their postseason. Every game will be meaningful. The AAC should have an electric atmosphere.
Think about it: even if the Mavs make the playoffs this year, they might win one or two games, giving them a total of five or six postseason matches.
If you adopt my view, Dallas will have no less than 15-20 playoff-quality games down the stretch.
Here is my Maverick Playoff Breakdown:
1st-Round: March 15 - 27
During those 12 days, the opponent highlights include the Lakers, Pistons, Hawks and Nuggets. If things go poorly, just like in the real playoffs, Dallas may be out of it before the semifinals begin. But assuming that Dallas wins a few of those contests...the Mavericks will advance to the next stage in their 'playoff' run:
Conference Semifinals: March 29 - April 5
In the 2nd-round, Mavericks' opponents include Cleveland, Miami and Phoenix. Again, they will be challenged, but what else would you expect from the NBA postseason? It will not be easy, but the Mavs will control their own destiny. If they succeed, they will reach their toughest task:
Conference Finals: April 8 - 15
During this brutal stretch, Dallas will face off against Utah, New Orleans (twice) and Houston. The Mavs will play five games in an 8-day stretch, including four games against winning teams. If Dallas can navigate their way through the brutal season finale, they will have advanced to their championship:
Championship Series
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This will be something to look forward to. The underrated Mavericks, led by Dirk and Jason Kidd, against the super-team, led by Kobe Bryant. David vs. Goliath. Dallas Academy vs. Covenant School. Keanu Reevs vs. any other actor. An underdog story for the ages.
If you adopt my view, Dallas qualifying for the playoffs will be like reaching the championship. Playing the Lakers in the 1st-round will BE their championship series.
Does this idea take a little bit of outside-the-box thinking? Sure. Is it slightly pathetic? I think so. But Dallas fans have not had many reasons to celebrate lately. So join me, support the Mavs, and you can witness playoff basketball in March!
Mavericks' record: 25-19 (.568 winning percentage)
vs. losing teams: 18-6 (.750 winning-percentage)
vs. winning teams: 7-13 (.350 winning-percentage)
* 1-7 (.125 winning %) against the top-4 Western Conference teams (LA, SA, DEN, NO)
* 1-3 (.250 winning %) against the top-4 Eastern Conference teams (CLE, BOS, ORL, ATL)
In their 13 losses against winning teams, the Mavericks have lost by an average of 10 points. In other words, Dallas isn't losing at the buzzer, they are getting manhandled.
...
38 Games Remaining
22 games remaining against teams with winning records
16 games remaining against teams with losing records
Ugly Projections
22 games against winning teams x .350 winning % = ~8 wins
16 games against losing teams x .750 winning % = 12 wins
Summary:
Mavs project to go 8-14 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 12-4 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 45-38
Good news: their projections this week are slightly better than last week (43-39)
Bad news: their projections still suggest that Dallas will miss the playoffs
But I have turned a new leaf and have adopted a newly-created philosophy for this year's Mavericks. I am not going to worry about watching the Lakers destroy Dallas in the playoffs. I am not going to worry about Josh Howard's fascination with a hideous outside jump shot. I am not going to remind myself that this team is going nowhere.
Instead, I will simply adjust the NBA time-line a bit. I will consider March and April as the Mavericks' playoff run. During the last month of the season, Dallas will be playing in their postseason. Every game will be meaningful. The AAC should have an electric atmosphere.
Think about it: even if the Mavs make the playoffs this year, they might win one or two games, giving them a total of five or six postseason matches.
If you adopt my view, Dallas will have no less than 15-20 playoff-quality games down the stretch.
Here is my Maverick Playoff Breakdown:
1st-Round: March 15 - 27
During those 12 days, the opponent highlights include the Lakers, Pistons, Hawks and Nuggets. If things go poorly, just like in the real playoffs, Dallas may be out of it before the semifinals begin. But assuming that Dallas wins a few of those contests...the Mavericks will advance to the next stage in their 'playoff' run:
Conference Semifinals: March 29 - April 5
In the 2nd-round, Mavericks' opponents include Cleveland, Miami and Phoenix. Again, they will be challenged, but what else would you expect from the NBA postseason? It will not be easy, but the Mavs will control their own destiny. If they succeed, they will reach their toughest task:
Conference Finals: April 8 - 15
During this brutal stretch, Dallas will face off against Utah, New Orleans (twice) and Houston. The Mavs will play five games in an 8-day stretch, including four games against winning teams. If Dallas can navigate their way through the brutal season finale, they will have advanced to their championship:
Championship Series
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This will be something to look forward to. The underrated Mavericks, led by Dirk and Jason Kidd, against the super-team, led by Kobe Bryant. David vs. Goliath. Dallas Academy vs. Covenant School. Keanu Reevs vs. any other actor. An underdog story for the ages.
If you adopt my view, Dallas qualifying for the playoffs will be like reaching the championship. Playing the Lakers in the 1st-round will BE their championship series.
Does this idea take a little bit of outside-the-box thinking? Sure. Is it slightly pathetic? I think so. But Dallas fans have not had many reasons to celebrate lately. So join me, support the Mavs, and you can witness playoff basketball in March!
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Time for a Change
Mavericks 99
Bucks 133
This Mavericks season is like a David Lynch movie: there are several good parts...but in the end, it leads nowhere.
Skin, from the Ben and Skin show on 105.3 The FAN, continues to suggest that it is much more enjoyable to watch a pretty good Mavs team, even if they are not contender, rather than watch a team like the Sacramento Kings, who currently hold the 13th spot in the West. The argument revolves around the fact that the Mavs and Kings were both contending at the same time...and while the Mavs are still decent, the Kings will barely scratch out 20 wins in 2009.
I completely understand that point of view...I just completely disagree with it. Sacramento wasn't competing at the same time as the Mavs, they were about four years ahead of Dallas. Sacramento peaked in 2002 when they reached the Western Conference Finals. Dallas climaxed during the 2006 NBA Finals. Four year difference.
During the four years following the Kings' loss to the Lakers, Sacramento made the playoffs each year but never advanced beyond the semifinals. After their loss to the Lakers in 2002, the organization went straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They were just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.
In 2006, four years after the Kings' collapse, Dallas had a breakdown of their own. The Mavericks lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. In the two years since, Dallas has qualified for the playoffs but has failed to advance beyond the 1st-round. Since the finals' meltdown, the Mavs have gone straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They are just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.
See the familiarities?
Dallas IS the Sacramento Kings, it's just that the Mavs are four years behind in their development process. Want more proof that this team is about as average as you can get? Below are the NBA ranks in most meaningful categories for the Mavericks:
18th - FG %
7th - Defensive FG%
11th - Pts/Game
15th - Defensive Pts/Game
7th - Turnovers
11th - Forced Turnovers
15th - Point Differential
Wow. This isn't a fluke. This isn't simply a bad stretch. This is your Dallas Mavericks. They don't do anything exceptionally well. They don't do anything exceptionally bad. They have become a fan's worst nightmare: a veteran-laden team with no hope.
So, you ask, what can Dallas do to avoid becoming the Kings two years from now? Answer: trade players before they lose value. The Kings fooled themselves into believing that their veteran core was just "a piece" away following the 2002 season (sound familiar) and they waited too long to break that core up:
* The Kings traded Chris Webber in 2005, as a 32-year-old, three years after the team's high-point. Instead of trading him for a significant package, they allowed his value to drop and simply needed to unload his salary...which they did.
* In 2006, they traded Peja Stoyakavic to the Pacers, four years after the team had peaked.
* Last year, Sacramento trade Mike Bibby to the Hawks. The entire NBA understood that the Kings were attempting to unload Bibby, and as a result, the Hawks did not have to trade away any core players to land him.
Now, the Kings are 10-33.
How does this relate to the Mavs? Well, what would Sacramento look like today if they had recognized in 2004 that the core group wasn't getting better? What if they traded Webber when he was 30 instead of 32? What if they traded Peja when he was 26 instead of 28? Bibby 26 instead of 29? Can you understand how much better the Kings would be now if they had done that then?
But they didn't. And why? So that they could make the playoffs for a couple more years only to be slaughtered by the "true" contenders.
How do Maverick fans benefit from watching Dirk, Terry, Kidd and Howard get destroyed by the Lakers in the 1st-round of the playoffs? How will an average veteran team suddenly improve? Easy answer: it won't.
Dirk is 30 right now...and still has tremendous value. At 32-33, not so sure.
Terry is 31 right now...and still has significant value. At 33-34, doubtful.
Kidd is 35 right now...and has value around the league. At 36-37, highly doubtful.
Mark...buddy...do the right thing. Sacrifice a little revenue and success right now for a quicker turnaround in the near future. If not, fans will need to prepare themselves for a 5+ year stretch of really bad, hopeless basketball. Obama's inauguration was appropriately scheduled because it's time for a change.
Bucks 133
This Mavericks season is like a David Lynch movie: there are several good parts...but in the end, it leads nowhere.
Skin, from the Ben and Skin show on 105.3 The FAN, continues to suggest that it is much more enjoyable to watch a pretty good Mavs team, even if they are not contender, rather than watch a team like the Sacramento Kings, who currently hold the 13th spot in the West. The argument revolves around the fact that the Mavs and Kings were both contending at the same time...and while the Mavs are still decent, the Kings will barely scratch out 20 wins in 2009.
I completely understand that point of view...I just completely disagree with it. Sacramento wasn't competing at the same time as the Mavs, they were about four years ahead of Dallas. Sacramento peaked in 2002 when they reached the Western Conference Finals. Dallas climaxed during the 2006 NBA Finals. Four year difference.
During the four years following the Kings' loss to the Lakers, Sacramento made the playoffs each year but never advanced beyond the semifinals. After their loss to the Lakers in 2002, the organization went straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They were just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.
In 2006, four years after the Kings' collapse, Dallas had a breakdown of their own. The Mavericks lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. In the two years since, Dallas has qualified for the playoffs but has failed to advance beyond the 1st-round. Since the finals' meltdown, the Mavs have gone straight downhill. No more Conference Championship appearances. No more "contending." They are just a group of veteran players getting worse each year...leading nowhere.
See the familiarities?
Dallas IS the Sacramento Kings, it's just that the Mavs are four years behind in their development process. Want more proof that this team is about as average as you can get? Below are the NBA ranks in most meaningful categories for the Mavericks:
18th - FG %
7th - Defensive FG%
11th - Pts/Game
15th - Defensive Pts/Game
7th - Turnovers
11th - Forced Turnovers
15th - Point Differential
Wow. This isn't a fluke. This isn't simply a bad stretch. This is your Dallas Mavericks. They don't do anything exceptionally well. They don't do anything exceptionally bad. They have become a fan's worst nightmare: a veteran-laden team with no hope.
So, you ask, what can Dallas do to avoid becoming the Kings two years from now? Answer: trade players before they lose value. The Kings fooled themselves into believing that their veteran core was just "a piece" away following the 2002 season (sound familiar) and they waited too long to break that core up:
* The Kings traded Chris Webber in 2005, as a 32-year-old, three years after the team's high-point. Instead of trading him for a significant package, they allowed his value to drop and simply needed to unload his salary...which they did.
* In 2006, they traded Peja Stoyakavic to the Pacers, four years after the team had peaked.
* Last year, Sacramento trade Mike Bibby to the Hawks. The entire NBA understood that the Kings were attempting to unload Bibby, and as a result, the Hawks did not have to trade away any core players to land him.
Now, the Kings are 10-33.
How does this relate to the Mavs? Well, what would Sacramento look like today if they had recognized in 2004 that the core group wasn't getting better? What if they traded Webber when he was 30 instead of 32? What if they traded Peja when he was 26 instead of 28? Bibby 26 instead of 29? Can you understand how much better the Kings would be now if they had done that then?
But they didn't. And why? So that they could make the playoffs for a couple more years only to be slaughtered by the "true" contenders.
How do Maverick fans benefit from watching Dirk, Terry, Kidd and Howard get destroyed by the Lakers in the 1st-round of the playoffs? How will an average veteran team suddenly improve? Easy answer: it won't.
Dirk is 30 right now...and still has tremendous value. At 32-33, not so sure.
Terry is 31 right now...and still has significant value. At 33-34, doubtful.
Kidd is 35 right now...and has value around the league. At 36-37, highly doubtful.
Mark...buddy...do the right thing. Sacrifice a little revenue and success right now for a quicker turnaround in the near future. If not, fans will need to prepare themselves for a 5+ year stretch of really bad, hopeless basketball. Obama's inauguration was appropriately scheduled because it's time for a change.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Ugly Reality For Mavericks
As noted yesterday, the Mavericks have struggled against teams with winning records. After losing to New Orleans last night, Dallas continued that trend.
Scary Numbers:
Mavericks' record: 22-17 (.564 winning percentage)
vs. winning teams: 5-13 (.280 winning-percentage)
vs. losing teams: 17-4 (.809 winning-percentage)
Up to this point in the season, Dallas has played 21 games against teams with a losing record and only 18 against teams with a winning record. Unfortunately for Dallas, that is about to change.
43 games remaining:
26 games remaining against teams with a winning record
17 games remaining against teams with a losing record
Scary Projections:
26 games against winning teams x .280 winning-percentage (vs winning teams) = 7 wins
17 games against losing teams x .809 winning-percentage (vs losing teams) = 14 wins
Summary:
Mavs project to go 7-19 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 14-3 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 43-39
Last year, Golden State finished at 48-34...and missed the playoffs. Wow.
Scary Numbers:
Mavericks' record: 22-17 (.564 winning percentage)
vs. winning teams: 5-13 (.280 winning-percentage)
vs. losing teams: 17-4 (.809 winning-percentage)
Up to this point in the season, Dallas has played 21 games against teams with a losing record and only 18 against teams with a winning record. Unfortunately for Dallas, that is about to change.
43 games remaining:
26 games remaining against teams with a winning record
17 games remaining against teams with a losing record
Scary Projections:
26 games against winning teams x .280 winning-percentage (vs winning teams) = 7 wins
17 games against losing teams x .809 winning-percentage (vs losing teams) = 14 wins
Summary:
Mavs project to go 7-19 in games remaining against winning teams.
Mavs project to go 14-3 in games remaining against losing teams.
Mavs project to finish with a final record of 43-39
Last year, Golden State finished at 48-34...and missed the playoffs. Wow.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Mavericks: Turn the Page
The Mavericks are 22-16, have lost three in a row and currently hold the ninth spot in the Western Conference.
Record Breakdown:
* The Mavericks are 5-12 against teams with a winning record.
* 17 of the Mavericks' 22 victories have come against teams with a losing record.
In other words, Dallas beats bad teams and does not beat good teams...a pretty bad trend if you are thinking playoffs.
Like Brett Favre, the Mavericks simply need to recognize that they just aren't very good anymore. Their window of opportunity closed as soon as Dwayne Wade crushed the Mavericks' soul during the 2006 NBA Finals.
It's time to say goodbye to Dirk. It's time to say goodbye to Kidd. It's time to say goodbye to Terry. It's time to start over. Fresh.
Dirk showed last night (44 points) that he is still playing at the top of his game. He has tremendous value around the league. Kidd currently ranks 5th in the NBA in assists/game and is 2nd in steals/game. He has lost a step, but still can offer a contending team experienced point-guard play. Jason Terry has basically wrapped up the 6th-man of the Year Award already. He absolutely has trade value.
If Cuban analyzes this team with his mind instead of his heart, he will realize that they just aren't anywhere close to being a contender. The Dallas' payroll will not allow for any impact players to be added, they do not have any useful draft picks (the Devin Harris trade just keeps on giving) and this whole thing is stale.
I've read this book; I know how it ends. The sooner we close this chapter of Mavericks' basketball, the sooner we can begin the next one.
Record Breakdown:
* The Mavericks are 5-12 against teams with a winning record.
* 17 of the Mavericks' 22 victories have come against teams with a losing record.
In other words, Dallas beats bad teams and does not beat good teams...a pretty bad trend if you are thinking playoffs.
Like Brett Favre, the Mavericks simply need to recognize that they just aren't very good anymore. Their window of opportunity closed as soon as Dwayne Wade crushed the Mavericks' soul during the 2006 NBA Finals.
It's time to say goodbye to Dirk. It's time to say goodbye to Kidd. It's time to say goodbye to Terry. It's time to start over. Fresh.
Dirk showed last night (44 points) that he is still playing at the top of his game. He has tremendous value around the league. Kidd currently ranks 5th in the NBA in assists/game and is 2nd in steals/game. He has lost a step, but still can offer a contending team experienced point-guard play. Jason Terry has basically wrapped up the 6th-man of the Year Award already. He absolutely has trade value.
If Cuban analyzes this team with his mind instead of his heart, he will realize that they just aren't anywhere close to being a contender. The Dallas' payroll will not allow for any impact players to be added, they do not have any useful draft picks (the Devin Harris trade just keeps on giving) and this whole thing is stale.
I've read this book; I know how it ends. The sooner we close this chapter of Mavericks' basketball, the sooner we can begin the next one.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Chinese Democracy = Dallas Mavericks?
While watching the Mavericks roll last night on TNT, I couldn't help but make a few observations:
While this team doesn't look like a legitimate contender in the West, it's still exciting to see that they have crawled their way to a couple of games above .500 after sleepwalking to a 2-7 start. And while Shawne Williams and JJ Barea may not have the talent or pedigree of most NBA players, they have one thing that the Mavericks desperately needed: hunger.
Prior to 2008, JJ Barea and Shawne Williams had combined to average about 21 minutes/game.
Stretching over their last seven contests, the two unheralded players have averaged 37 minutes/game. They have both responded by playing hard, fighting for loose balls, crashing the boards and simply out-hustling their opponents. In other words, these guys are hungry...not just to win, but to earn playing time. Thinking back about recent seasons, would you have described any of the Mavericks as "hungry" for playing time? I know that I wouldn't.
Over the last two years, the Dallas' window of opportunity was closing faster than the Stars' organization threw Sean Avery under the bus. During that time, the Mavericks' primary bench players included:
Every good team needs a few "high-energy" players like Eduardo Najera, Luke Walton, Rajon Rondo: guys that weren't highly touted coming out of school and enter the league with a chip on their shoulder, determined to make a difference in each game by outworking their opponents.
The Mavericks either haven't had young, hungry guys recently or certain coaches (rhymes with Stavery Bonson), refused to hand the reigns to inexperienced players (see the Devin Harris trade). Whatever the reason, Rick Carlisle appears willing to give the young guys a chance, and so far, it's paying dividends.
It has been fun to watch the Mavericks add the much-needed infusion of youth an energy to the mix; however, anytime you play inexperienced players, there will be growing pains. Up to this point, Carlisle appears to have a necessary ingredient needed to deal with young players, as stated by Axl Rose:
"Patience."
- Dirk looks like he is having fun out there. Over the last two seasons, I'm not sure that was the case.
- At one point in the 2nd quarter, I was reminded of the new Guns 'N Roses album, Chinese Democracy: "I recognize Axl...but who in the hell are the rest of those guys?!"
- The G-N-R similarities don't end there: Rick Carlisle appears to be very "democratic" with playing time, and just like Axl, he continues to move forward with new faces playing different roles. So far, Carlisle has used 10 different starting lineups, in 18 games, and during their recent hot streak, the 1st-year coach has given many unknown/unproven players extended minutes.
While this team doesn't look like a legitimate contender in the West, it's still exciting to see that they have crawled their way to a couple of games above .500 after sleepwalking to a 2-7 start. And while Shawne Williams and JJ Barea may not have the talent or pedigree of most NBA players, they have one thing that the Mavericks desperately needed: hunger.
Prior to 2008, JJ Barea and Shawne Williams had combined to average about 21 minutes/game.
Stretching over their last seven contests, the two unheralded players have averaged 37 minutes/game. They have both responded by playing hard, fighting for loose balls, crashing the boards and simply out-hustling their opponents. In other words, these guys are hungry...not just to win, but to earn playing time. Thinking back about recent seasons, would you have described any of the Mavericks as "hungry" for playing time? I know that I wouldn't.
Over the last two years, the Dallas' window of opportunity was closing faster than the Stars' organization threw Sean Avery under the bus. During that time, the Mavericks' primary bench players included:
- Jerry Stackhouse: NBA Veteran
- Eddie Jones: NBA Veteran
- Juwan Howard: NBA Veteran
- Greg Buckner: NBA Veteran
- Anthony Johnson: NBA Veteran
Every good team needs a few "high-energy" players like Eduardo Najera, Luke Walton, Rajon Rondo: guys that weren't highly touted coming out of school and enter the league with a chip on their shoulder, determined to make a difference in each game by outworking their opponents.
The Mavericks either haven't had young, hungry guys recently or certain coaches (rhymes with Stavery Bonson), refused to hand the reigns to inexperienced players (see the Devin Harris trade). Whatever the reason, Rick Carlisle appears willing to give the young guys a chance, and so far, it's paying dividends.
It has been fun to watch the Mavericks add the much-needed infusion of youth an energy to the mix; however, anytime you play inexperienced players, there will be growing pains. Up to this point, Carlisle appears to have a necessary ingredient needed to deal with young players, as stated by Axl Rose:
"Patience."
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Why Avery was fired...
Many suggest that Avery Johnson was fired because of his unwillingness to delegate tasks, his overbearing nature or his inability to just let the "plaiy-errs" play! That was not the case.
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