After watching another pathetic offensive performance by the Rangers, I thought to myself: "What would Andruw Jones have to do to be moved out of the cleanup spot?"
Since April, Jones is hitting .204:
In May, he hit .245...
In June, he hit .170...
In July, he is hitting .195...
During that time, he has produced a .285 OBP. Chris Davis' .202 average and .256 OBP not only resulted in him getting moved down in the order, it led to his demotion to AAA. For Andruw Jones, similar numbers have resulted in solidifying his role ast the starting DH and cleanup hitter!
Seriously, what would Jones have to do to lose playing time or to be dropped in the order? Hit .100? .075?
Similarly, Kinsler has been really bad since April (despite his 2-HR game last night). This year against RH pitchers, Kinsler has produced the very gross line of .216/.298/.400 (.698 OPS). Since right-handed pitchers start about two-thirds of all Major League games, Washington continues to handcuff the team by inserting a leadoff hitter who simply can't hit righties.
Could Kinsler turn it around? Sure. But for almost three months, he has been really bad against righties. When a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, Murphy needs to move into the leadoff spot. He has been very good against righties all season (plus, this sets up a L-R-L lineup combo).
Obviously, Jones and Kinsler are not the only problems within this offense, but when the lineup consistently underachieves, why keep doing the same thing?
Against a right-handed starter:
1. Murphy (consistently producing against righties...including .380 OBP since April)
2. Young (ideal #2 hitter)
3. Hamilton
4. Cruz (.948 OPS vs RH pitchers)
5. Blalock (.908 OPS vs RH pitchers)
6. Kinsler (horrible against RH pitchers: .698 OPS)
7. Byrd/Jones
8. Salty
9. Andrus
Against a left-handed starter:
1. Andrus (.398 OBP vs. LH pitchers)
2. Young
3. Hamilton
4. Kinsler (1.114 OPS vs. LH pitchers can't be wasted on the leadoff spot)
5. Cruz
6. Byrd
7. Salty
8. Blalock/Murphy (both are hitting below .200 vs. LH pitchers)
9. Jones
Makes a lot of sense, but I'm sure that Jones will continue to hit cleanup because, "Hey, he is Andruw Jones and he was good four years ago."
Monday, July 20, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
Smoke and Mirrors
Over the last month, the Texas offense has been really bad. Too many strikeouts, not enough walks and a collective group simply not getting the job done. Luckily for the Rangers, their pitching staff has bailed them out.
That may change moving forward.
Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman have been unusually lucky throughout the first half of 2009. BABIP has been established as an extremely useful statistic. The acronym stands for: Batting-Average-on-Balls-In-Play. In other words, it tracks how often a pitcher gives up a hit when the hitter puts a pitch in play.
Typically, the league average hovers around the .300 mark meaning that, on average, 30% of balls put in play result in a base hit. Let’s take a look at the two Texas starters in question:
Millwood
Since coming to Texas, Millwood has allowed a BABIP of around .335. Last year, when he posted an ERA of 5.07 – his BABIP was .357. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.34 – his BABIP is .267 (90 points lower than 2008), which is below league-average and well below his recent career trend. You might just think that he is making better pitches this year, but upon further review:
Millwood is striking out less this year than he did in 2008...
Millwood is walking more than he did in 2008...
When walk rates go up and k-rates go down, ERA almost always inflates. Instead, Millwood has seen his ERA drop almost two full points.
Feldman
Last year, when Scott Feldman posted a 5.29 ERA, he allowed a BABIP of .285. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.91 – his BABIP is .236 (almost 50 points lower than last year). Is he making better pitches? Possibly, but again:
Felman's walk rates haven’t changed much this year...
Feldman's strikeout rate is almost identical to last year’s...
The difference: he is allowing two less hits for every 9 innings that he pitches.
The Rangers have improved their team defense and that can play a significant role within hits-allowed numbers; however, the defense by itself cannot explain both pitchers’ sudden improvement. If the defensive changes were solely responsible, you would expect the entire staff to see massive improvement within their BABIP numbers. That hasn’t happened. Matt Harrison has seen a dramatic increase in his BABIP this year. Padilla has seen his BABIP remain fairly constant. Brandon McCarthy has a much higher BABIP than it was in 2008.
I hope that I am wrong and am pulling for Millwood and Feldman to continue pitching well, but the numbers generally don’t lie. They aren’t striking more batters out – they aren’t walking fewer batters – they are simply allowing fewer hits. That doesn’t typically happen very often, but we can hope, right?
That may change moving forward.
Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman have been unusually lucky throughout the first half of 2009. BABIP has been established as an extremely useful statistic. The acronym stands for: Batting-Average-on-Balls-In-Play. In other words, it tracks how often a pitcher gives up a hit when the hitter puts a pitch in play.
Typically, the league average hovers around the .300 mark meaning that, on average, 30% of balls put in play result in a base hit. Let’s take a look at the two Texas starters in question:
Millwood
Since coming to Texas, Millwood has allowed a BABIP of around .335. Last year, when he posted an ERA of 5.07 – his BABIP was .357. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.34 – his BABIP is .267 (90 points lower than 2008), which is below league-average and well below his recent career trend. You might just think that he is making better pitches this year, but upon further review:
Millwood is striking out less this year than he did in 2008...
Millwood is walking more than he did in 2008...
When walk rates go up and k-rates go down, ERA almost always inflates. Instead, Millwood has seen his ERA drop almost two full points.
Feldman
Last year, when Scott Feldman posted a 5.29 ERA, he allowed a BABIP of .285. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.91 – his BABIP is .236 (almost 50 points lower than last year). Is he making better pitches? Possibly, but again:
Felman's walk rates haven’t changed much this year...
Feldman's strikeout rate is almost identical to last year’s...
The difference: he is allowing two less hits for every 9 innings that he pitches.
The Rangers have improved their team defense and that can play a significant role within hits-allowed numbers; however, the defense by itself cannot explain both pitchers’ sudden improvement. If the defensive changes were solely responsible, you would expect the entire staff to see massive improvement within their BABIP numbers. That hasn’t happened. Matt Harrison has seen a dramatic increase in his BABIP this year. Padilla has seen his BABIP remain fairly constant. Brandon McCarthy has a much higher BABIP than it was in 2008.
I hope that I am wrong and am pulling for Millwood and Feldman to continue pitching well, but the numbers generally don’t lie. They aren’t striking more batters out – they aren’t walking fewer batters – they are simply allowing fewer hits. That doesn’t typically happen very often, but we can hope, right?
Thursday, July 9, 2009
How could you miss the signs?
My computer has been returned, apparently the victim of an alien abduction. How else do you explain the gibberish coming out of it last week? Granted the Rangers had just finished the worst hitting month in over 15 years, had just dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly Padres at home, and had lost the first game of a 3 game set with the Angels dropping them out of first for the first time in 2 months, but only some unintelligent life from another world would jump to the conclusion that the Rangers were done. Yes there were 2 games left with the Angels and the Rays were coming to town followed by 7 on the road with the Angels and Mariners, but who in their right mind would predict that the Rangers would finish 4-8 in those remaining games. I for one knew that couldn’t be the case as evidenced by the Rangers winning the 2 remaining games with the Angels, sweeping the Rays, and then winning the series in Anaheim.
I mean, come on, it was there for all to see. Hank Blalock was primed to hit game winning home runs, Tommy Hunter was obviously a solid starter on the rise, and I think it was clear that Andruw Jones was about to return to 2005 form. And of course I had no doubt that once the Rangers got to Anaheim they would take care of business and spank the Angels in the first 2 games of that series, but apparently alien civilizations don’t have access to the information or insight that I do.
Since that loss to Anaheim a week ago, the Rangers have won 7 of 9 (including 4 of 5 against LAA) , returned to 1st place, sent Chris Davis to AAA, and the duo of Blalock and Jones has carried the Rangers offensively. I’m not surprised, the evidence was there. Only someone that has not watched these Rangers all year would be expecting a fall. I apologize for the mess coming from this computer last week; it was evidently at the hands of someone who doesn’t understand this Ranger team. Hey move over!! Man this bandwagon is getting crowded.
I mean, come on, it was there for all to see. Hank Blalock was primed to hit game winning home runs, Tommy Hunter was obviously a solid starter on the rise, and I think it was clear that Andruw Jones was about to return to 2005 form. And of course I had no doubt that once the Rangers got to Anaheim they would take care of business and spank the Angels in the first 2 games of that series, but apparently alien civilizations don’t have access to the information or insight that I do.
Since that loss to Anaheim a week ago, the Rangers have won 7 of 9 (including 4 of 5 against LAA) , returned to 1st place, sent Chris Davis to AAA, and the duo of Blalock and Jones has carried the Rangers offensively. I’m not surprised, the evidence was there. Only someone that has not watched these Rangers all year would be expecting a fall. I apologize for the mess coming from this computer last week; it was evidently at the hands of someone who doesn’t understand this Ranger team. Hey move over!! Man this bandwagon is getting crowded.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Why Are We Voting for Ian Kinsler?
Last week, Major League Baseball announced the All Star selections for this year’s mid-season classic. Despite leading the fan vote throughout the entire first-half of the season, Ian Kinsler was edged out by Boston 2nd baseman, Dustin Pedroia. Kinsler has been named as one of five players added to the “Final Vote” group. The “Final Vote” selection provides fans with the ability to vote-in one additional player in each league that did not originally earn a roster spot.
If you are a Ranger fan or have watched any recent Ranger games, you have undoubtedly seen numerous marketing messages imploring you to vote for Ian Kinsler. I can understand why the Texas Ranger organization would want another representative at the All Star game. I can understand why Ranger fans would hope to see another Ranger make the trip to St. Louis.
I don’t understand why any non-Ranger fan/employee would vote for Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has some impressive numbers: 20 homeruns; more than 50 RBI; 16 stolen bases. That all looks impressive – but he hasn’t been nearly as good as his numbers would suggest.
In April, Kinsler produced a ridiculous .322/.384/.656 line. He was one of the best players in baseball and it appeared that he had carried momentum from his great 2008 season into 2009. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 3rd, Kinsler has seen his average drop from .337 to .253; he has seen his OPS drop from 1.092 to .831 and his offensive presence has all but disappeared. In fact, since his hot April start, Kinsler has produced the very ugly line of .231/.320/.462 with an OPS of .782.
If you dig deeper, you will find a more disturbing statistic: while producing a .955 OPS at offensive-inclined Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, he has wilted on the road, posting a measly .679 OPS.
Kinsler has played well during one month of 2009, he has been a non-factor on the road and he just ended an 0-23 slump. Sorry Ranger fans, I just don’t think that resume shouts “All Star selection.”
If you are a Ranger fan or have watched any recent Ranger games, you have undoubtedly seen numerous marketing messages imploring you to vote for Ian Kinsler. I can understand why the Texas Ranger organization would want another representative at the All Star game. I can understand why Ranger fans would hope to see another Ranger make the trip to St. Louis.
I don’t understand why any non-Ranger fan/employee would vote for Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has some impressive numbers: 20 homeruns; more than 50 RBI; 16 stolen bases. That all looks impressive – but he hasn’t been nearly as good as his numbers would suggest.
In April, Kinsler produced a ridiculous .322/.384/.656 line. He was one of the best players in baseball and it appeared that he had carried momentum from his great 2008 season into 2009. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 3rd, Kinsler has seen his average drop from .337 to .253; he has seen his OPS drop from 1.092 to .831 and his offensive presence has all but disappeared. In fact, since his hot April start, Kinsler has produced the very ugly line of .231/.320/.462 with an OPS of .782.
If you dig deeper, you will find a more disturbing statistic: while producing a .955 OPS at offensive-inclined Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, he has wilted on the road, posting a measly .679 OPS.
Kinsler has played well during one month of 2009, he has been a non-factor on the road and he just ended an 0-23 slump. Sorry Ranger fans, I just don’t think that resume shouts “All Star selection.”
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