Coming into this series, most commentary surrounded the juxtaposition of the veteran-laden Mavericks team facing a young and explosive Miami Heat. However, as the series has progressed, 26-year-old LeBron is the player that continues to disappear down the stretch.
Some have opined that LeBron is simply deferring to Wade while others have cited the Dallas defense as a reason for the LeBron Houdini act. Both assertions are probably correct in some respects, but one issue doesn't seem to garner the same level of attention as the aforementioned explanations: LeBron is tired.
"LeBron is 26," Dwyane Wade said. "He’s not going to wear down."
Are we sure about that?
Upon LeBron's arrival, most basketball analysts asserted that Miami's lack of depth would detrimentally affect the team's long-term potential. Commentators referenced the grind of an 82 game regular season and the physical toll dished out during a run through the Eastern Conference postseason. To its credit, the Heat shrugged off the critiques and rolled through the Eastern conference, leaving a trail of bloody teams in their wake. Depth has not been an issue for the team as a whole and the cyborg known as LeBron James has shown no ill-effects of the increased workload.
Until now.
After Game 4, James is now a combined 3-of-12 in the 4th quarter throughout the Finals. Why? Fatigue seems like a logical explanation.
LeBron has been asked to play substantially more minutes per game during this postseason than any other player still standing. Through 19 postseason games, James is averaging 44 minutes/game. Dirk has averaged the most playing time for the Mavericks, coming in at 39 minutes/game.
While that may not seem like a significant difference, consider the fact that each of the players mentioned have played in 19 postseason games this season.
Total Postseason Minutes
LeBron: 836
Dirk: 741
LeBron has played an additional 95 minutes this posteason...essentially equating to playing two more postseason games than Dirk has, in terms of minutes played. And these have not been low-pressure minutes. LeBron's minutes involve being one of the two primary offensive options on every possession of the game while also being asked to lock down one of the opposing team's best scorers. For 44 minutes. Every game. All season long.
Another issue: LeBron's heavy workload didn't begin in the playoffs. During the regular season, James had the sixth-highest per-game average in terms of minutes played at 39 minutes/game. Dirk averaged 34.
Regular Season Minutes
LeBron: 3063
Dirk: 2503
LeBron played 560 more minutes than Dirk during the regular season. In other words, he essentially played almost 12 additional regular season games in terms of minutes played. If you combine the minutes in the regular season with the postseason minutes, James has played approximately 14 more games than Nowitzki throughout this season.
Despite LeBron's gifted athleticism and physical build, playing almost every minute of every game during the regular season and throughout a grueling postseason has to eventually affect one's production.
While we like to believe that James was built with metal and steel, it appears that he may be made of flesh and blood after all.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
The Paul Molitor Myth
The Paul Molitor Myth
It remains unlikely that Michael Young is traded before the season starts (as discussed in detail by Jamey Newberg here).
In summation, in order to avoid weakening the 2011 club, Texas would need to trade Young for a player that could help the Rangers win this year. Unfortunately, teams that would be interested in a 34-year-old DH/second-baseman are also looking to contend in 2011 – meaning that they are unlikely to trade away players who can contribute this year.
During the last week (and more generally, over the last couple of years), many pundits have suggested that Michael Young will end his career as a Paul Molitor-type DH. Like Young, Molitor came up as a second-baseman and then moved around the diamond, eventually settling at DH for the last portion of his career. Molitor began getting the majority of his starts at DH when he turned 34 (the current age of Young). Realistically, that’s where the similarities stop.
Beginning at age 34, Molitor posted these numbers as a primary DH:
Age 34: .325/.399/.489 (.888)
Age 35: .320/.389/.461 (.851)
Age 36: .332/.402/.509 (.911)
Age 37: .341/.410/.518 (.927)
Average: .330/.400/.494 (.894)
Here are Young’s last four seasons (age 30-33):
Age 30: .315/.366/.418 (.783)
Age 31: .284/.339/.402 (.741)
Age 32: .322/.374/.518 (.892)
Age 33: .284/.330/.444 (.774)
Average: .301/.352/.445 (.798)
During the last four years for Young, years that are typically considered near the “prime” for most players, he has managed to produce an average yearly OPS slightly below .800.
During the four years in which Molitor was age 34 – 37, years in which players typically decline, he produced an average yearly OPS slightly below .900.
How about home/away splits?
Molitor During Age 34-37 Seasons:
Home OPS: .910
Away OPS: .876
Young During Age 30- 33 Seasons:
Home OPS: .855 (very similar to his career Home OPS of .859)
Away OPS: .742 (very similar to his career Away OPS of .733)
Though Molitor was a better hitter at home, he was still a very above-average hitter on the road.
Young, on the other hand, has been an above-average hitter at home and a below-average hitter on the road. If Young’s ability to consistently produce really is a strength of his, one must take into account the fact that he is consistently a below-average hitter away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
The goal is not to suggest that Young is a bad hitter or a useless player. In fact, he could be a very valuable part of this team moving forward. But this is just a reality check. For whatever reason, Young is considered by many Rangers fans as a great player (Evan Grant recently suggested placing a statue of Young in RBiA). But putting aside the intangibles that he possesses (assuming you consider them relevant), Young’s on-field production is solid but unspectacular. Put Young on the Washington Nationals and people in the DFW area wouldn't even consider labeling him as a "great" player. On the flip side, Paul Molitor was one of the best hitters in baseball for a significant period of time (before the PED era).
Michael Young is the Rangers’ best option at full-time DH for 2011 and who knows, maybe he will have a late-career boom as a DH. But, based on his recent numbers and his career production, it seems unrealistic to suggest that Michael Young will become a Molitor-clone at DH. We should be satisfied if Young can muster average ML production from this point forward and we should refrain from creating expectations for Young that he will never fulfill.
It remains unlikely that Michael Young is traded before the season starts (as discussed in detail by Jamey Newberg here).
In summation, in order to avoid weakening the 2011 club, Texas would need to trade Young for a player that could help the Rangers win this year. Unfortunately, teams that would be interested in a 34-year-old DH/second-baseman are also looking to contend in 2011 – meaning that they are unlikely to trade away players who can contribute this year.
During the last week (and more generally, over the last couple of years), many pundits have suggested that Michael Young will end his career as a Paul Molitor-type DH. Like Young, Molitor came up as a second-baseman and then moved around the diamond, eventually settling at DH for the last portion of his career. Molitor began getting the majority of his starts at DH when he turned 34 (the current age of Young). Realistically, that’s where the similarities stop.
Beginning at age 34, Molitor posted these numbers as a primary DH:
Age 34: .325/.399/.489 (.888)
Age 35: .320/.389/.461 (.851)
Age 36: .332/.402/.509 (.911)
Age 37: .341/.410/.518 (.927)
Average: .330/.400/.494 (.894)
Here are Young’s last four seasons (age 30-33):
Age 30: .315/.366/.418 (.783)
Age 31: .284/.339/.402 (.741)
Age 32: .322/.374/.518 (.892)
Age 33: .284/.330/.444 (.774)
Average: .301/.352/.445 (.798)
During the last four years for Young, years that are typically considered near the “prime” for most players, he has managed to produce an average yearly OPS slightly below .800.
During the four years in which Molitor was age 34 – 37, years in which players typically decline, he produced an average yearly OPS slightly below .900.
How about home/away splits?
Molitor During Age 34-37 Seasons:
Home OPS: .910
Away OPS: .876
Young During Age 30- 33 Seasons:
Home OPS: .855 (very similar to his career Home OPS of .859)
Away OPS: .742 (very similar to his career Away OPS of .733)
Though Molitor was a better hitter at home, he was still a very above-average hitter on the road.
Young, on the other hand, has been an above-average hitter at home and a below-average hitter on the road. If Young’s ability to consistently produce really is a strength of his, one must take into account the fact that he is consistently a below-average hitter away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
The goal is not to suggest that Young is a bad hitter or a useless player. In fact, he could be a very valuable part of this team moving forward. But this is just a reality check. For whatever reason, Young is considered by many Rangers fans as a great player (Evan Grant recently suggested placing a statue of Young in RBiA). But putting aside the intangibles that he possesses (assuming you consider them relevant), Young’s on-field production is solid but unspectacular. Put Young on the Washington Nationals and people in the DFW area wouldn't even consider labeling him as a "great" player. On the flip side, Paul Molitor was one of the best hitters in baseball for a significant period of time (before the PED era).
Michael Young is the Rangers’ best option at full-time DH for 2011 and who knows, maybe he will have a late-career boom as a DH. But, based on his recent numbers and his career production, it seems unrealistic to suggest that Michael Young will become a Molitor-clone at DH. We should be satisfied if Young can muster average ML production from this point forward and we should refrain from creating expectations for Young that he will never fulfill.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Neighbors of a Serial Killer: Part Two
On January 12, 2009...I wrote this regarding Michael Young's trade request:
Neighbors of a Serial Killer
January 12, 2009
The Texas Rangers have asked Michael Young to change positions and he is not having any of it. After speaking with General Manager Jon Daniels about moving to third base, Young said,
Have you ever seen a news story on a serial killer? You know, the ones where their neighbors are interviewed and always say something to the effect of, "He was always such a nice man. He was friendly, he helped me trim my tree, and seemed like a great guy. I just can't believe that he did this!"
Well, that's kind of how many Ranger fans feel about Michael Young right now. Is comparing Young to a serial killer a little extreme? Probably...but being a lifelong Ranger fan will have that effect on you!
For years, Ranger fans have considered Michael Young a leader. They considered him the "face" of the Ranger organization. He has the reputation of a guy that will do anything to win. He is Mr. Team.
They may now be questioning whether they mislabeled their beloved shortstop. Let's examine:
1. After the 2003 season, when Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees, Michael Young volunteered to move from 2nd base to shortstop. Fans and reporters considered this the ultimate "team-first" move.
But was it really?
Let's see, Young moved from 2nd base to the most important defensive position on the field. Teams value shortstops more than they do 2nd basemen. As a result, shortstops get paid more, on average, than 2nd basemen.
Three years after moving to shortstop, Young received a 5 year, $80 million dollar contract. Coincidence?
2. During the past few seasons, Young was often quoted as saying that "I am not interested in rebuilding...I am interested in getting better now."
The Rangers attempted to improve "now" by trading away prospects for veteran pitchers Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Brandon McCarthy. The Rangers also lost Armando Galarraga when they signed veteran starter Jason Jennings.
The "win now" moves rewarded Young and the Rangers with one of the worst rotations in baseball. But hey, at least they weren't "rebuilding."
3. In 2007, Texas acquired highly-rated shortstop prospect, Elvis Andrus, in the Mark Teixeira trade. Last week, the Rangers asked Michael Young to slide to 3rd to create an opening for the sweet-fielding Andrus. Young refused and instead, asked to be traded.
He went on to say,
If that doesn't say "team," I don't know what does!
Guess what, Mike? Thousands of people have lost their jobs within the last few months. You are a baseball player. You "play" for a living. Sorry that you do not get to make out the lineup and pick your position. Despite earning $80 million over the next five years to play a game, you feel “disrespected” because your boss did not "ask" you to change positions? Really?
Wow.
Look, Young is probably a good guy. He works hard, he plays hard and he has carved out a nice career for himself. He is the self-appointed leader of the Texas Rangers. He has a clean-cut look, is well-spoken and has been extremely productive while in Texas.
Unfortunately for Mike, fans do not ignore "me-first" comments because you are a "good guy." Despite being the "face" of the organization, and after nine productive years with the Texas Rangers, Young will soon be traded.
And like the neighbors of a serial killer, hundreds of fans, who have seen Young as a team-first leader, will be amazed to learn that he is not the guy that they had come to know.
____________
This week, Young demanded a trade for the second time.
This scenario obviously differs from the situation in 2009 (mainly that the Rangers are coming off of a World Series appearance and look poised to continue getting better...something that might be important to a guy that is "all about" winning), but the theme remains the same: Michael Young is not some super-do-anything-to-help-the-team-win-leader that many thought he was. He is just a guy.
In 2009, the organization was concerned about the ripple effect that trading Young might have had, both in the clubhouse and with the fans. Having an ALCS banner and players like Andrus, Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, and Feliz makes losing the "ultimate team-guy" much, much easier.
I hope that Jon Daniels honors Young's request and trades him to Baltimore so he can be a great "team-guy" on a 65-win club.
Neighbors of a Serial Killer
January 12, 2009
The Texas Rangers have asked Michael Young to change positions and he is not having any of it. After speaking with General Manager Jon Daniels about moving to third base, Young said,
I'm not playing third base. I'm pretty adamant about my stance. I told them I wanted to be traded.
Have you ever seen a news story on a serial killer? You know, the ones where their neighbors are interviewed and always say something to the effect of, "He was always such a nice man. He was friendly, he helped me trim my tree, and seemed like a great guy. I just can't believe that he did this!"
Well, that's kind of how many Ranger fans feel about Michael Young right now. Is comparing Young to a serial killer a little extreme? Probably...but being a lifelong Ranger fan will have that effect on you!
For years, Ranger fans have considered Michael Young a leader. They considered him the "face" of the Ranger organization. He has the reputation of a guy that will do anything to win. He is Mr. Team.
They may now be questioning whether they mislabeled their beloved shortstop. Let's examine:
1. After the 2003 season, when Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees, Michael Young volunteered to move from 2nd base to shortstop. Fans and reporters considered this the ultimate "team-first" move.
But was it really?
Let's see, Young moved from 2nd base to the most important defensive position on the field. Teams value shortstops more than they do 2nd basemen. As a result, shortstops get paid more, on average, than 2nd basemen.
Three years after moving to shortstop, Young received a 5 year, $80 million dollar contract. Coincidence?
2. During the past few seasons, Young was often quoted as saying that "I am not interested in rebuilding...I am interested in getting better now."
The Rangers attempted to improve "now" by trading away prospects for veteran pitchers Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Brandon McCarthy. The Rangers also lost Armando Galarraga when they signed veteran starter Jason Jennings.
The "win now" moves rewarded Young and the Rangers with one of the worst rotations in baseball. But hey, at least they weren't "rebuilding."
3. In 2007, Texas acquired highly-rated shortstop prospect, Elvis Andrus, in the Mark Teixeira trade. Last week, the Rangers asked Michael Young to slide to 3rd to create an opening for the sweet-fielding Andrus. Young refused and instead, asked to be traded.
He went on to say,
The biggest misconception is that I was asked to move to third base. I was never asked. I was flat-out told. I was told I was playing third base. I felt that I had absolutely no say. I don't feel like there was any discussion or dialogue about the matter.
If that doesn't say "team," I don't know what does!
Guess what, Mike? Thousands of people have lost their jobs within the last few months. You are a baseball player. You "play" for a living. Sorry that you do not get to make out the lineup and pick your position. Despite earning $80 million over the next five years to play a game, you feel “disrespected” because your boss did not "ask" you to change positions? Really?
Wow.
Look, Young is probably a good guy. He works hard, he plays hard and he has carved out a nice career for himself. He is the self-appointed leader of the Texas Rangers. He has a clean-cut look, is well-spoken and has been extremely productive while in Texas.
Unfortunately for Mike, fans do not ignore "me-first" comments because you are a "good guy." Despite being the "face" of the organization, and after nine productive years with the Texas Rangers, Young will soon be traded.
And like the neighbors of a serial killer, hundreds of fans, who have seen Young as a team-first leader, will be amazed to learn that he is not the guy that they had come to know.
____________
This week, Young demanded a trade for the second time.
This scenario obviously differs from the situation in 2009 (mainly that the Rangers are coming off of a World Series appearance and look poised to continue getting better...something that might be important to a guy that is "all about" winning), but the theme remains the same: Michael Young is not some super-do-anything-to-help-the-team-win-leader that many thought he was. He is just a guy.
In 2009, the organization was concerned about the ripple effect that trading Young might have had, both in the clubhouse and with the fans. Having an ALCS banner and players like Andrus, Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, and Feliz makes losing the "ultimate team-guy" much, much easier.
I hope that Jon Daniels honors Young's request and trades him to Baltimore so he can be a great "team-guy" on a 65-win club.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Dallas Cowboys: I want Fun Bobby back!
Dallas Cowboys: Where is Fun Bobby?
Do you remember the episode of Friends in which the show introduced “Fun Bobby?” Bobby made people laugh, he created a uniquely energetic atmosphere and, quite simply, things were more exciting when Bobby was around. The problem: Bobby’s “fun” personality was a result of a drinking problem.
The seven generic white “friends” decided that they needed to do something. The group banded together and eventually helped Bobby quit drinking. The problem: Bobby was no longer “fun.” Without alcohol, Bobby was just another guy with very little to offer (and please ignore the indirect “why you should drink” message).
Cowboys’ fans – say hello to “No Fun Tony.”
That’s right; you got what you asked for. Since taking over as the starter, Romo has been one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. But instead of recognizing Romo’s unique ability to make plays that no other quarterback could make, the fans just wanted to talk about turnovers.
Every time the Cowboys lost, Dallas sports-talk was littered with “Jeds from Garland” telling the world that, “This team just cain’t win with a guy like Romo who dun goes and throws them interceptions!”
Well Jed, you got what you wanted. Romo is no longer fun to watch. He no longer consistently makes amazing plays. The constant and seemingly never-ending chirping about turnovers finally got to Tony (or Garrett) – and a below-average offense is the result.
How did San Diego score their first touchdown? Philip Rivers took a shot down the field – Dallas interfered on the play – and San Diego was given the ball at the 2-yard-line. Sounds pretty simple.
Romo no longer takes shots down the field. He doesn’t look for the big play (at least not in big games). If Romo avoids trouble in the pocket, he isn’t looking downfield; he is looking for his check-down receiver. In other words, you have turned one of the NFL’s most unique weapons into Kyle Orton.
Congratulations.
The fans that united to collectively whine and complain about Romo’s “carelessness” with the ball now have the opportunity to watch this Dallas team scratch and crawl to score 17 points. When Romo was clicking on all cylinders, 17 points was a decent total for one quarter. Romo hasn’t turned the ball over in December and Dallas is 0-2. He currently has the lowest turnover ratio of his career – and yet the offense has become less productive. But hey, that’s what everyone wanted, right?
Romo is a natural-born playmaker. Did his creativity and willingness to take chances occasionally lead to mistakes? Of course it did. But when Romo was playing free and loose, his positive impact on the offense far outweighed his occasional mishap.
Do you remember the youthful exuberance that used to surround Tony? Can you recall how electric Texas Stadium became when Romo stepped onto the field? Now, none of that happens. The fans aren’t excited, the players look disinterested and Romo himself doesn’t look confident. Two years ago, if you had told me that Romo would not exude confidence when he stepped on the field, I would have called you Sarah Palin crazy!
Early on in his career, Romo’s ability to make big plays defined him as a quarterback – and I can’t help but think that this coaching staff (with help from constant criticism by the fans/media) has simply taken that risk-taking mentality away from him. Though Romo has connected on 14 big plays (40+ yards) this season, only three of them have come during meaningful times in meaningful games (2 against Philadelphia; 1 against Green Bay). A more detailed breakdown follows:
• Week 2: Loss to the Giants 33-31 (0 big plays)
• Week 4: Loss at the Broncos 17-10 (1 big play less than 2:00 remaining)
• Week 10: Loss at the Packers 17-7 (1 big play)
• Week 13: Loss at the Giants 31-24 (0 big plays)
• Week 14: Loss to the Chargers 20-17 (0 big plays)
This team doesn’t make big plays against quality teams. Against Oakland and Seattle, Dallas receivers will break a tackle and create a big play. But in close games against decent teams, Dallas simply doesn’t take many (if any) shots down the field.
And no, T.O. isn’t the difference. T.O. played in Dallas last year and, outside of the San Francisco game, the team didn’t connect on many explosive plays. This isn’t a personnel issue – this is a mentality issue. Romo no longer appears to have the playmaker mentality. He doesn’t strike fear into opposing defense and he isn’t walking with the same swagger that he used to own. He simply looks like just another guy.
I don’t know about you, but I want “Fun Bobby” back!
Do you remember the episode of Friends in which the show introduced “Fun Bobby?” Bobby made people laugh, he created a uniquely energetic atmosphere and, quite simply, things were more exciting when Bobby was around. The problem: Bobby’s “fun” personality was a result of a drinking problem.
The seven generic white “friends” decided that they needed to do something. The group banded together and eventually helped Bobby quit drinking. The problem: Bobby was no longer “fun.” Without alcohol, Bobby was just another guy with very little to offer (and please ignore the indirect “why you should drink” message).
Cowboys’ fans – say hello to “No Fun Tony.”
That’s right; you got what you asked for. Since taking over as the starter, Romo has been one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. But instead of recognizing Romo’s unique ability to make plays that no other quarterback could make, the fans just wanted to talk about turnovers.
Every time the Cowboys lost, Dallas sports-talk was littered with “Jeds from Garland” telling the world that, “This team just cain’t win with a guy like Romo who dun goes and throws them interceptions!”
Well Jed, you got what you wanted. Romo is no longer fun to watch. He no longer consistently makes amazing plays. The constant and seemingly never-ending chirping about turnovers finally got to Tony (or Garrett) – and a below-average offense is the result.
How did San Diego score their first touchdown? Philip Rivers took a shot down the field – Dallas interfered on the play – and San Diego was given the ball at the 2-yard-line. Sounds pretty simple.
Romo no longer takes shots down the field. He doesn’t look for the big play (at least not in big games). If Romo avoids trouble in the pocket, he isn’t looking downfield; he is looking for his check-down receiver. In other words, you have turned one of the NFL’s most unique weapons into Kyle Orton.
Congratulations.
The fans that united to collectively whine and complain about Romo’s “carelessness” with the ball now have the opportunity to watch this Dallas team scratch and crawl to score 17 points. When Romo was clicking on all cylinders, 17 points was a decent total for one quarter. Romo hasn’t turned the ball over in December and Dallas is 0-2. He currently has the lowest turnover ratio of his career – and yet the offense has become less productive. But hey, that’s what everyone wanted, right?
Romo is a natural-born playmaker. Did his creativity and willingness to take chances occasionally lead to mistakes? Of course it did. But when Romo was playing free and loose, his positive impact on the offense far outweighed his occasional mishap.
Do you remember the youthful exuberance that used to surround Tony? Can you recall how electric Texas Stadium became when Romo stepped onto the field? Now, none of that happens. The fans aren’t excited, the players look disinterested and Romo himself doesn’t look confident. Two years ago, if you had told me that Romo would not exude confidence when he stepped on the field, I would have called you Sarah Palin crazy!
Early on in his career, Romo’s ability to make big plays defined him as a quarterback – and I can’t help but think that this coaching staff (with help from constant criticism by the fans/media) has simply taken that risk-taking mentality away from him. Though Romo has connected on 14 big plays (40+ yards) this season, only three of them have come during meaningful times in meaningful games (2 against Philadelphia; 1 against Green Bay). A more detailed breakdown follows:
• Week 2: Loss to the Giants 33-31 (0 big plays)
• Week 4: Loss at the Broncos 17-10 (1 big play less than 2:00 remaining)
• Week 10: Loss at the Packers 17-7 (1 big play)
• Week 13: Loss at the Giants 31-24 (0 big plays)
• Week 14: Loss to the Chargers 20-17 (0 big plays)
This team doesn’t make big plays against quality teams. Against Oakland and Seattle, Dallas receivers will break a tackle and create a big play. But in close games against decent teams, Dallas simply doesn’t take many (if any) shots down the field.
And no, T.O. isn’t the difference. T.O. played in Dallas last year and, outside of the San Francisco game, the team didn’t connect on many explosive plays. This isn’t a personnel issue – this is a mentality issue. Romo no longer appears to have the playmaker mentality. He doesn’t strike fear into opposing defense and he isn’t walking with the same swagger that he used to own. He simply looks like just another guy.
I don’t know about you, but I want “Fun Bobby” back!
Monday, August 17, 2009
Things You Should Never Do!
After attending at least 30 Ranger games this year, Blair and I were discussing yesterday that we should make a list of things you should never do at a Ranger game.
- Never do the wave..........no matter how hot, how boring, or how ignorant you are
- Never wear a glove if you're over 9 years old
- If you fail and wear a glove, please never cower behind the glove while your girlfriend takes a foul ball off the side of the face
- Never "deke" the guy behind you by pretending that you're going to catch the hotshot headed your way.........only to move at the last second
- Never bring Eddie in a game that matters
- Never say "how could anyone be worse than Chris Davis" ie see Hank Blalock
- Never expect Wash to play the game by the "book"
- Never wear a tank top if you weigh in over 300lbs
- Never expect Wash to have an actual plan or role for his bullpen
- Never think you're gonna see Blalock walk
- Never look for Kinsler to hit to the opposite field..........unless of course he's just late
- Never think that MY is not the best player on the field.........period! (Unless we play the Cardinals)
- Never regret bringing Elvis up to plas SS and moving MY over
- Never order cotton candy if you're over 9 (see glove admonition above)
- Never lose a home series to Minnesota, San Diego, or Oakland (oops 0-3 there)
Monday, July 20, 2009
What would Jones have to do?
After watching another pathetic offensive performance by the Rangers, I thought to myself: "What would Andruw Jones have to do to be moved out of the cleanup spot?"
Since April, Jones is hitting .204:
In May, he hit .245...
In June, he hit .170...
In July, he is hitting .195...
During that time, he has produced a .285 OBP. Chris Davis' .202 average and .256 OBP not only resulted in him getting moved down in the order, it led to his demotion to AAA. For Andruw Jones, similar numbers have resulted in solidifying his role ast the starting DH and cleanup hitter!
Seriously, what would Jones have to do to lose playing time or to be dropped in the order? Hit .100? .075?
Similarly, Kinsler has been really bad since April (despite his 2-HR game last night). This year against RH pitchers, Kinsler has produced the very gross line of .216/.298/.400 (.698 OPS). Since right-handed pitchers start about two-thirds of all Major League games, Washington continues to handcuff the team by inserting a leadoff hitter who simply can't hit righties.
Could Kinsler turn it around? Sure. But for almost three months, he has been really bad against righties. When a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, Murphy needs to move into the leadoff spot. He has been very good against righties all season (plus, this sets up a L-R-L lineup combo).
Obviously, Jones and Kinsler are not the only problems within this offense, but when the lineup consistently underachieves, why keep doing the same thing?
Against a right-handed starter:
1. Murphy (consistently producing against righties...including .380 OBP since April)
2. Young (ideal #2 hitter)
3. Hamilton
4. Cruz (.948 OPS vs RH pitchers)
5. Blalock (.908 OPS vs RH pitchers)
6. Kinsler (horrible against RH pitchers: .698 OPS)
7. Byrd/Jones
8. Salty
9. Andrus
Against a left-handed starter:
1. Andrus (.398 OBP vs. LH pitchers)
2. Young
3. Hamilton
4. Kinsler (1.114 OPS vs. LH pitchers can't be wasted on the leadoff spot)
5. Cruz
6. Byrd
7. Salty
8. Blalock/Murphy (both are hitting below .200 vs. LH pitchers)
9. Jones
Makes a lot of sense, but I'm sure that Jones will continue to hit cleanup because, "Hey, he is Andruw Jones and he was good four years ago."
Since April, Jones is hitting .204:
In May, he hit .245...
In June, he hit .170...
In July, he is hitting .195...
During that time, he has produced a .285 OBP. Chris Davis' .202 average and .256 OBP not only resulted in him getting moved down in the order, it led to his demotion to AAA. For Andruw Jones, similar numbers have resulted in solidifying his role ast the starting DH and cleanup hitter!
Seriously, what would Jones have to do to lose playing time or to be dropped in the order? Hit .100? .075?
Similarly, Kinsler has been really bad since April (despite his 2-HR game last night). This year against RH pitchers, Kinsler has produced the very gross line of .216/.298/.400 (.698 OPS). Since right-handed pitchers start about two-thirds of all Major League games, Washington continues to handcuff the team by inserting a leadoff hitter who simply can't hit righties.
Could Kinsler turn it around? Sure. But for almost three months, he has been really bad against righties. When a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, Murphy needs to move into the leadoff spot. He has been very good against righties all season (plus, this sets up a L-R-L lineup combo).
Obviously, Jones and Kinsler are not the only problems within this offense, but when the lineup consistently underachieves, why keep doing the same thing?
Against a right-handed starter:
1. Murphy (consistently producing against righties...including .380 OBP since April)
2. Young (ideal #2 hitter)
3. Hamilton
4. Cruz (.948 OPS vs RH pitchers)
5. Blalock (.908 OPS vs RH pitchers)
6. Kinsler (horrible against RH pitchers: .698 OPS)
7. Byrd/Jones
8. Salty
9. Andrus
Against a left-handed starter:
1. Andrus (.398 OBP vs. LH pitchers)
2. Young
3. Hamilton
4. Kinsler (1.114 OPS vs. LH pitchers can't be wasted on the leadoff spot)
5. Cruz
6. Byrd
7. Salty
8. Blalock/Murphy (both are hitting below .200 vs. LH pitchers)
9. Jones
Makes a lot of sense, but I'm sure that Jones will continue to hit cleanup because, "Hey, he is Andruw Jones and he was good four years ago."
Friday, July 10, 2009
Smoke and Mirrors
Over the last month, the Texas offense has been really bad. Too many strikeouts, not enough walks and a collective group simply not getting the job done. Luckily for the Rangers, their pitching staff has bailed them out.
That may change moving forward.
Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman have been unusually lucky throughout the first half of 2009. BABIP has been established as an extremely useful statistic. The acronym stands for: Batting-Average-on-Balls-In-Play. In other words, it tracks how often a pitcher gives up a hit when the hitter puts a pitch in play.
Typically, the league average hovers around the .300 mark meaning that, on average, 30% of balls put in play result in a base hit. Let’s take a look at the two Texas starters in question:
Millwood
Since coming to Texas, Millwood has allowed a BABIP of around .335. Last year, when he posted an ERA of 5.07 – his BABIP was .357. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.34 – his BABIP is .267 (90 points lower than 2008), which is below league-average and well below his recent career trend. You might just think that he is making better pitches this year, but upon further review:
Millwood is striking out less this year than he did in 2008...
Millwood is walking more than he did in 2008...
When walk rates go up and k-rates go down, ERA almost always inflates. Instead, Millwood has seen his ERA drop almost two full points.
Feldman
Last year, when Scott Feldman posted a 5.29 ERA, he allowed a BABIP of .285. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.91 – his BABIP is .236 (almost 50 points lower than last year). Is he making better pitches? Possibly, but again:
Felman's walk rates haven’t changed much this year...
Feldman's strikeout rate is almost identical to last year’s...
The difference: he is allowing two less hits for every 9 innings that he pitches.
The Rangers have improved their team defense and that can play a significant role within hits-allowed numbers; however, the defense by itself cannot explain both pitchers’ sudden improvement. If the defensive changes were solely responsible, you would expect the entire staff to see massive improvement within their BABIP numbers. That hasn’t happened. Matt Harrison has seen a dramatic increase in his BABIP this year. Padilla has seen his BABIP remain fairly constant. Brandon McCarthy has a much higher BABIP than it was in 2008.
I hope that I am wrong and am pulling for Millwood and Feldman to continue pitching well, but the numbers generally don’t lie. They aren’t striking more batters out – they aren’t walking fewer batters – they are simply allowing fewer hits. That doesn’t typically happen very often, but we can hope, right?
That may change moving forward.
Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman have been unusually lucky throughout the first half of 2009. BABIP has been established as an extremely useful statistic. The acronym stands for: Batting-Average-on-Balls-In-Play. In other words, it tracks how often a pitcher gives up a hit when the hitter puts a pitch in play.
Typically, the league average hovers around the .300 mark meaning that, on average, 30% of balls put in play result in a base hit. Let’s take a look at the two Texas starters in question:
Millwood
Since coming to Texas, Millwood has allowed a BABIP of around .335. Last year, when he posted an ERA of 5.07 – his BABIP was .357. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.34 – his BABIP is .267 (90 points lower than 2008), which is below league-average and well below his recent career trend. You might just think that he is making better pitches this year, but upon further review:
Millwood is striking out less this year than he did in 2008...
Millwood is walking more than he did in 2008...
When walk rates go up and k-rates go down, ERA almost always inflates. Instead, Millwood has seen his ERA drop almost two full points.
Feldman
Last year, when Scott Feldman posted a 5.29 ERA, he allowed a BABIP of .285. This year, while posting an ERA of 3.91 – his BABIP is .236 (almost 50 points lower than last year). Is he making better pitches? Possibly, but again:
Felman's walk rates haven’t changed much this year...
Feldman's strikeout rate is almost identical to last year’s...
The difference: he is allowing two less hits for every 9 innings that he pitches.
The Rangers have improved their team defense and that can play a significant role within hits-allowed numbers; however, the defense by itself cannot explain both pitchers’ sudden improvement. If the defensive changes were solely responsible, you would expect the entire staff to see massive improvement within their BABIP numbers. That hasn’t happened. Matt Harrison has seen a dramatic increase in his BABIP this year. Padilla has seen his BABIP remain fairly constant. Brandon McCarthy has a much higher BABIP than it was in 2008.
I hope that I am wrong and am pulling for Millwood and Feldman to continue pitching well, but the numbers generally don’t lie. They aren’t striking more batters out – they aren’t walking fewer batters – they are simply allowing fewer hits. That doesn’t typically happen very often, but we can hope, right?
Thursday, July 9, 2009
How could you miss the signs?
My computer has been returned, apparently the victim of an alien abduction. How else do you explain the gibberish coming out of it last week? Granted the Rangers had just finished the worst hitting month in over 15 years, had just dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly Padres at home, and had lost the first game of a 3 game set with the Angels dropping them out of first for the first time in 2 months, but only some unintelligent life from another world would jump to the conclusion that the Rangers were done. Yes there were 2 games left with the Angels and the Rays were coming to town followed by 7 on the road with the Angels and Mariners, but who in their right mind would predict that the Rangers would finish 4-8 in those remaining games. I for one knew that couldn’t be the case as evidenced by the Rangers winning the 2 remaining games with the Angels, sweeping the Rays, and then winning the series in Anaheim.
I mean, come on, it was there for all to see. Hank Blalock was primed to hit game winning home runs, Tommy Hunter was obviously a solid starter on the rise, and I think it was clear that Andruw Jones was about to return to 2005 form. And of course I had no doubt that once the Rangers got to Anaheim they would take care of business and spank the Angels in the first 2 games of that series, but apparently alien civilizations don’t have access to the information or insight that I do.
Since that loss to Anaheim a week ago, the Rangers have won 7 of 9 (including 4 of 5 against LAA) , returned to 1st place, sent Chris Davis to AAA, and the duo of Blalock and Jones has carried the Rangers offensively. I’m not surprised, the evidence was there. Only someone that has not watched these Rangers all year would be expecting a fall. I apologize for the mess coming from this computer last week; it was evidently at the hands of someone who doesn’t understand this Ranger team. Hey move over!! Man this bandwagon is getting crowded.
I mean, come on, it was there for all to see. Hank Blalock was primed to hit game winning home runs, Tommy Hunter was obviously a solid starter on the rise, and I think it was clear that Andruw Jones was about to return to 2005 form. And of course I had no doubt that once the Rangers got to Anaheim they would take care of business and spank the Angels in the first 2 games of that series, but apparently alien civilizations don’t have access to the information or insight that I do.
Since that loss to Anaheim a week ago, the Rangers have won 7 of 9 (including 4 of 5 against LAA) , returned to 1st place, sent Chris Davis to AAA, and the duo of Blalock and Jones has carried the Rangers offensively. I’m not surprised, the evidence was there. Only someone that has not watched these Rangers all year would be expecting a fall. I apologize for the mess coming from this computer last week; it was evidently at the hands of someone who doesn’t understand this Ranger team. Hey move over!! Man this bandwagon is getting crowded.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Why Are We Voting for Ian Kinsler?
Last week, Major League Baseball announced the All Star selections for this year’s mid-season classic. Despite leading the fan vote throughout the entire first-half of the season, Ian Kinsler was edged out by Boston 2nd baseman, Dustin Pedroia. Kinsler has been named as one of five players added to the “Final Vote” group. The “Final Vote” selection provides fans with the ability to vote-in one additional player in each league that did not originally earn a roster spot.
If you are a Ranger fan or have watched any recent Ranger games, you have undoubtedly seen numerous marketing messages imploring you to vote for Ian Kinsler. I can understand why the Texas Ranger organization would want another representative at the All Star game. I can understand why Ranger fans would hope to see another Ranger make the trip to St. Louis.
I don’t understand why any non-Ranger fan/employee would vote for Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has some impressive numbers: 20 homeruns; more than 50 RBI; 16 stolen bases. That all looks impressive – but he hasn’t been nearly as good as his numbers would suggest.
In April, Kinsler produced a ridiculous .322/.384/.656 line. He was one of the best players in baseball and it appeared that he had carried momentum from his great 2008 season into 2009. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 3rd, Kinsler has seen his average drop from .337 to .253; he has seen his OPS drop from 1.092 to .831 and his offensive presence has all but disappeared. In fact, since his hot April start, Kinsler has produced the very ugly line of .231/.320/.462 with an OPS of .782.
If you dig deeper, you will find a more disturbing statistic: while producing a .955 OPS at offensive-inclined Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, he has wilted on the road, posting a measly .679 OPS.
Kinsler has played well during one month of 2009, he has been a non-factor on the road and he just ended an 0-23 slump. Sorry Ranger fans, I just don’t think that resume shouts “All Star selection.”
If you are a Ranger fan or have watched any recent Ranger games, you have undoubtedly seen numerous marketing messages imploring you to vote for Ian Kinsler. I can understand why the Texas Ranger organization would want another representative at the All Star game. I can understand why Ranger fans would hope to see another Ranger make the trip to St. Louis.
I don’t understand why any non-Ranger fan/employee would vote for Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has some impressive numbers: 20 homeruns; more than 50 RBI; 16 stolen bases. That all looks impressive – but he hasn’t been nearly as good as his numbers would suggest.
In April, Kinsler produced a ridiculous .322/.384/.656 line. He was one of the best players in baseball and it appeared that he had carried momentum from his great 2008 season into 2009. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 3rd, Kinsler has seen his average drop from .337 to .253; he has seen his OPS drop from 1.092 to .831 and his offensive presence has all but disappeared. In fact, since his hot April start, Kinsler has produced the very ugly line of .231/.320/.462 with an OPS of .782.
If you dig deeper, you will find a more disturbing statistic: while producing a .955 OPS at offensive-inclined Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, he has wilted on the road, posting a measly .679 OPS.
Kinsler has played well during one month of 2009, he has been a non-factor on the road and he just ended an 0-23 slump. Sorry Ranger fans, I just don’t think that resume shouts “All Star selection.”
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Blessing in Disguise
The Rangers just lost 2 of 3 at home to the lowly Padres and last night began a 3 game series with the Division leading Angels with a loss. The Rangers have 12 games left before the All Star break including 5 against the Angels (2 at home and 3 on the road) 3 against the hottest team (and maybe most talented) team in the AL, the Tampa Bay Rays, and 4 on the road against the resurrected Mariners. There is a better than good chance that the Rangers come out of this stretch with a 4-8 record. This could, and probably will, end most thoughts that the Rangers will contend for a Division title this year. The Rangers were at least a year ahead of schedule anyway but it's unfortunate because you simply never know when you might be back in a position to contend.
The good news: this should force the Rangers to become sellers at the deadline. Padilla might have damaged his value by giving up 5 straight hits in the 6th last night (all of them shots including 2 homers) but he might have some value in the marketplace...assuming that Texas would pick up a significant piece of his salary. Texas also has an array of average major-leaguers on the bench that can be had for a bus ticket. Hopefully someone sees value in the left-handed bat of Blalock. Regrettably, that last statement includes his strongest attribute. The fact that he hits (in Ranger vocabulary meaning swings) from the left side of the plate is his biggest attribute. I think even Ranger management finally had seen enough of the all or nothing (most often nothing) swing of Blalock as Triple A call-up Julio Borbon took over DH duties last night.
The Rangers are also rich at the catcher position and there is always value there. Maybe a little overexposure this year has tarnished Teagarden's star somewhat, but just take a look around the league; there aren’t that many serviceable catchers that have the upside that he does. I’m not sure that they can get today what they could have last year, but he should have some worth out there.
I know the knee-jerk Ranger fans are always looking to move CJ (inexplicably after a 315 ft home run…CJ how could you) but this is one player that management should say hands off. He has wicked stuff and has shown he can close games, a rare commodity. He has the makeup and the stuff to be a top line closer anywhere in the league and he is just 29. This is fairly young by bullpen standards.
All things considered, the lack of offense and the swoon in June has been disappointing, but in the end it may serve the Rangers and Ranger fans well. The temptation to sacrifice a prospect or two for another bat or a starting pitcher has to be diminished by the play on the field of late. In reality, this team is more than one and probably two above average major leaguers from catching the Angels. Let’s stand pat and let the kids grow. Just wait till next year...oh yeah I think I’ve said that before.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Texas Rangers Offense: The Ugly Truth
Over the last month, Rangers fans have been subjected to something not familiar to these parts: bad offense. Yes – that’s right – the Texas Rangers are having major offensive issues.
For the month of June, Texas owns the 2nd lowest batting average (.218), the worst on-base percentage (.277) and has scored the 2nd fewest runs in all of baseball. I never thought that I would say this but, the Texas Rangers have no offense.
Many continue to wonder why this is happening. Is this a result of Milton Bradley leaving? Partly. Is this happening because Josh Hamilton is hurt? That’s definitely part of it. But there might be larger factors at play that Texas fans do not want to recognize: maybe this offense just isn’t very good.
Think about it: on any given day, the Rangers’ lineup includes Chris Davis, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz. None of those guys have even two full years of major-league experience.
Texas consistently relies on young and inexperienced players to complete more than half of their lineup. What did you expect? Most young players initially struggle upon making it to the big-leagues – Texas just happens to have more young guys than most teams. Remember, 2009 was meant to be a developmental year for the organization. Andrus, Davis, Salty, Teagarden and Cruz were slotted to get extended playing time to help Rangers’ General Manager, Jon Daniels, determine what players will be here for the long-haul.
Before the season, most expected Texas to struggle. Luckily for the metroplex, Texas got off to a hot start and has provided the area with some really exciting baseball through June. Yes, the offense has really struggled recently, but you have to keep things in perspective. It’s not all about this year – it’s about building a core of players that will be here for the next decade. Most young guys don’t step into a major-league lineup and immediately light it up. It generally takes time and we are witnessing that development take place at the major-league level.
Don’t give up on these guys and don’t call for changes. This is a young, promising team that has limitless potential. Like with any young team, there will be bumps along the road – but that doesn’t mean that you decide to go a different direction.
For the month of June, Texas owns the 2nd lowest batting average (.218), the worst on-base percentage (.277) and has scored the 2nd fewest runs in all of baseball. I never thought that I would say this but, the Texas Rangers have no offense.
Many continue to wonder why this is happening. Is this a result of Milton Bradley leaving? Partly. Is this happening because Josh Hamilton is hurt? That’s definitely part of it. But there might be larger factors at play that Texas fans do not want to recognize: maybe this offense just isn’t very good.
Think about it: on any given day, the Rangers’ lineup includes Chris Davis, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz. None of those guys have even two full years of major-league experience.
Texas consistently relies on young and inexperienced players to complete more than half of their lineup. What did you expect? Most young players initially struggle upon making it to the big-leagues – Texas just happens to have more young guys than most teams. Remember, 2009 was meant to be a developmental year for the organization. Andrus, Davis, Salty, Teagarden and Cruz were slotted to get extended playing time to help Rangers’ General Manager, Jon Daniels, determine what players will be here for the long-haul.
Before the season, most expected Texas to struggle. Luckily for the metroplex, Texas got off to a hot start and has provided the area with some really exciting baseball through June. Yes, the offense has really struggled recently, but you have to keep things in perspective. It’s not all about this year – it’s about building a core of players that will be here for the next decade. Most young guys don’t step into a major-league lineup and immediately light it up. It generally takes time and we are witnessing that development take place at the major-league level.
Don’t give up on these guys and don’t call for changes. This is a young, promising team that has limitless potential. Like with any young team, there will be bumps along the road – but that doesn’t mean that you decide to go a different direction.
Friday, June 19, 2009
What has happened to Taylor Teagarden?
From my dad last night:
Aside from the Teagarden issue, last night Texas implemented another brilliant 9th inning strategy. Marlon Byrd was on first-base and, while the team trailed by 2, he decided to steal second. Though the replay showed that he was thrown out, the umpire called him safe. Despite successfully stealing the bag, this is just another example verifying that this team simply doesn’t understand baseball fundamentals. When you are trailing by 2 in the 9th – and you aren’t even the tying run – you do not risk getting thrown out trying to steal. That’s baseball 101.
At some point, these mental errors are going to cost this team. It’s one thing to play “stupid” baseball when you aren’t a very good team. But when you are in first place and in the middle of a pennant race, a couple stupid mistakes could be the difference between winning the pennant and watching the playoffs from your couch. Hopefully Texas realizes that sooner rather than later.
Well last night I saw something I have never seen before...well at least not in baseball. Padilla scored by going 5-hole against Taylor Teagarden. Unfortunately they're on the same team and they weren't playing hockey. Yes, that's right, Taylor missed a fastball right between his legs. At least it wasn't in a crucial situation...that is unless you think that having the bases-loaded constitutes a crucial situation.
Later that inning, on a play at the plate, Teagarden is inexplicably two feet in front of the baseline instead of near homeplate. As usual, Cruz's throw comes in like a heat-seeking missile, but Teagarden is so far in front of the plate that he can't apply the tag. If he just sets up the way any average catcher would, the ball still reaches him in the air and he's in position to make the tag. Once again, at least it wasn't in a crucial situation...that is unless you think keeping the other team from scoring is somehow important to the final outcome.
This kid has gone from being a top-rated prospect to barely being a usable backup. He has been totally over matched all year at the plate (see Chris Davis) and now his defense is so unreliable that I can't remember a time when the Rangers have had such a poor backup behind the plate. I actually felt sorry for Padilla last night - and it takes a lot for that to happen.
Aside from the Teagarden issue, last night Texas implemented another brilliant 9th inning strategy. Marlon Byrd was on first-base and, while the team trailed by 2, he decided to steal second. Though the replay showed that he was thrown out, the umpire called him safe. Despite successfully stealing the bag, this is just another example verifying that this team simply doesn’t understand baseball fundamentals. When you are trailing by 2 in the 9th – and you aren’t even the tying run – you do not risk getting thrown out trying to steal. That’s baseball 101.
At some point, these mental errors are going to cost this team. It’s one thing to play “stupid” baseball when you aren’t a very good team. But when you are in first place and in the middle of a pennant race, a couple stupid mistakes could be the difference between winning the pennant and watching the playoffs from your couch. Hopefully Texas realizes that sooner rather than later.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Washington Hates "The Book"
The Rangers pulled out a thrilling victory last night in 10 innings. The win helped Texas maintain a 2-game lead in the AL West and helped Ron Washington avoid having to answer questions about his insane management strategy in the 9th.
Situation:
In the bottom of the 9th, the Astros brought in their stud closer, Jose Valverde. The right-hander promptly allowed a leadoff double to Marlon Byrd bringing up Chris Davis.
The situation called for a bunt; however, throughout his ML career, Davis had never bunted. He did not bunt in this situation either. Instead, he flew out in a rather hapless at-bat. After a Jarrod Saltalamacchia strikeout, Omar Vizquel walked towards the plate.
Vizquel was hitting .323 on the season and had been 3-8 against Valverde, including being 2 for his last 2. Vizquel had gone 1-3 during the game and had looked pretty locked-in at the plate. It seemed like a good situation for the Rangers but...
Enter Ron Washington.
Instead of letting the scrappy Vizquel face Valverde, Washington summoned for a pinch-hitter. Andruw Jones exited the dugout, took a few practice swings and stepped to the plate.
Wait a minute! Andruw Jones? Really? Washington not only went against "the book," he burned it (and I'm not sure that Washington's "book" isn't just a picture-book to begin with...). Let's take a look at just how stupid the decision was:
Washington removed a hitter that:
created a lefty-righty matchup...
was hitting .323 on the season...
had played the entire game and looked good at the plate (1-3)...
and he replaced him with a hitter that:
created a righty-righty matchup...
was hitting .143 in June...
had not played all night and was coming into the game "cold."
Jones struck out on 3 pitches. Well done Wash, well done.
Here is a quote from my dad after Washington received his extension last week:
Washington just looks like he is guessing out there. If you are going to pinch-hit in the 9th, you pinch-hit Andrus for Davis (who is hitting .200) and move the runner over.
Runner at 3rd, one out and numerous ways in which you can score.
Washington is simply an over-manager. He apparently believes that going "by the book" is simply too easy. Too many times in his tenure in Texas, he has made decisions based on a "gut" feeling. Like my dad said, sometimes it works - but most of the time it doesn't. They call it "the book" for a reason: it usually works.
If Texas wants to contend throughout all of 2009, Washington better get his ego in-check. Stop trying to be the genius that constantly goes against the grain. Just play it by the numbers: try to create lefty-righty matchups; stop using Guardado during close games; don't create something that isn't there.
Use the book Ron, use the book.
Situation:
In the bottom of the 9th, the Astros brought in their stud closer, Jose Valverde. The right-hander promptly allowed a leadoff double to Marlon Byrd bringing up Chris Davis.
The situation called for a bunt; however, throughout his ML career, Davis had never bunted. He did not bunt in this situation either. Instead, he flew out in a rather hapless at-bat. After a Jarrod Saltalamacchia strikeout, Omar Vizquel walked towards the plate.
Vizquel was hitting .323 on the season and had been 3-8 against Valverde, including being 2 for his last 2. Vizquel had gone 1-3 during the game and had looked pretty locked-in at the plate. It seemed like a good situation for the Rangers but...
Enter Ron Washington.
Instead of letting the scrappy Vizquel face Valverde, Washington summoned for a pinch-hitter. Andruw Jones exited the dugout, took a few practice swings and stepped to the plate.
Wait a minute! Andruw Jones? Really? Washington not only went against "the book," he burned it (and I'm not sure that Washington's "book" isn't just a picture-book to begin with...). Let's take a look at just how stupid the decision was:
Washington removed a hitter that:
created a lefty-righty matchup...
was hitting .323 on the season...
had played the entire game and looked good at the plate (1-3)...
and he replaced him with a hitter that:
created a righty-righty matchup...
was hitting .143 in June...
had not played all night and was coming into the game "cold."
Jones struck out on 3 pitches. Well done Wash, well done.
Here is a quote from my dad after Washington received his extension last week:
Look - sometimes good moves don't work, sometimes dumb moves do, but playing it by “the book" works more times than not...that's how it became "the book!” This team needs Wash to just get out of the way...try not to trip over the bats and balls as we roll them out there.
Washington just looks like he is guessing out there. If you are going to pinch-hit in the 9th, you pinch-hit Andrus for Davis (who is hitting .200) and move the runner over.
Runner at 3rd, one out and numerous ways in which you can score.
Washington is simply an over-manager. He apparently believes that going "by the book" is simply too easy. Too many times in his tenure in Texas, he has made decisions based on a "gut" feeling. Like my dad said, sometimes it works - but most of the time it doesn't. They call it "the book" for a reason: it usually works.
If Texas wants to contend throughout all of 2009, Washington better get his ego in-check. Stop trying to be the genius that constantly goes against the grain. Just play it by the numbers: try to create lefty-righty matchups; stop using Guardado during close games; don't create something that isn't there.
Use the book Ron, use the book.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Where do they go from here?
The Texas Rangers just completed murderer’s row within their schedule. During the last 25 games, Texas played six against the Yankees, three against the Red Sox, four against the Blue Jays, three against the Tigers and three against the Dodgers, the team who currently sports the best record in all of baseball.
Despite 19 of the 25 being against teams with winnings records, Texas managed to hang tough by going 12-13 during that stretch. Though Texas’ division lead has been trimmed to two games, there is good news on the horizon: 8 of their next 11 games will be against teams with sub-.500 records.
The schedule for the next two weeks features three against the Astros, three against the Giants, three versus the Diamondbacks and another three-game set against the Padres. Their combined records are 118-133.
Texas needs to take advantage of the next two weeks because, after their series with San Diego, Texas will face another tough scheduling challenge including three against the Angels, four against the Mariners, three against the Twins and three against the Red Sox.
With Josh Hamilton out for an extended period of time and Frankie Francisco unavailable until Saturday (at the earliest), the Rangers will have to overcome some adversity. But over the next month, Texas will have the opportunity to establish themselves as legitimate contenders or, if things do not go well, they could once again prove that this isn’t their year.
It’s going to be fun to watch and whether they play well or not, it's fun to talk about possible contention in June rather than “wait ‘til next year” discussions.
Despite 19 of the 25 being against teams with winnings records, Texas managed to hang tough by going 12-13 during that stretch. Though Texas’ division lead has been trimmed to two games, there is good news on the horizon: 8 of their next 11 games will be against teams with sub-.500 records.
The schedule for the next two weeks features three against the Astros, three against the Giants, three versus the Diamondbacks and another three-game set against the Padres. Their combined records are 118-133.
Texas needs to take advantage of the next two weeks because, after their series with San Diego, Texas will face another tough scheduling challenge including three against the Angels, four against the Mariners, three against the Twins and three against the Red Sox.
With Josh Hamilton out for an extended period of time and Frankie Francisco unavailable until Saturday (at the earliest), the Rangers will have to overcome some adversity. But over the next month, Texas will have the opportunity to establish themselves as legitimate contenders or, if things do not go well, they could once again prove that this isn’t their year.
It’s going to be fun to watch and whether they play well or not, it's fun to talk about possible contention in June rather than “wait ‘til next year” discussions.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Lewinisms...
I have decided to begin tracking the "Lewinisms" uttered by Texas Rangers' play-by-play guy, Josh Lewin. First, we need to define a Lewinism:
Lewinism: any statement made during a baseball game that indicates a complete lack of baseball knowledge, leaving the audience temporarily motionless as they attempt to comprehend what was just said.
The "Lewinism" updates will detail numerous items verifying that Josh Lewin actually knows nothing about baseball.
Number One:
Today against the Dodgers, Lewin stated,
You may be asking yourself, "What James Loney is Lewin talking about? The only James Loney that I'm aware of is not a power-hitter and has actually been criticized because of his lack of power."
Confusion is the correct response. Yes, the "powerful" Loney has managed to tally an impressive two homeruns this year in 63 games. Yep, he's on pace for anywhere from 5-6 homeruns this year. He is a very, very "powerful" 1st baseman.
Grieve just responded with, "Well, Loney is more of a Lyle Overbay or Mark Grace-type hitter."
And then came the funniest part of the exchange: Lewin responded with, "Yep."
He doesn't even recognize when someone is attempting to call him out! If Grieve wasn't such a nice guy, he would respond more along these lines: "Actually Josh, you are completely wrong. Loney is not a "power" guy - he is a "contact" guy...a fact that renders your previous comment absolutely meaningless."
Grieve has to call him out at some point. It has to happen...someone tell me that it has to happen.
Number Two:
In the top of the 7th inning of today's game, Brad Ausmus walked to the plate. Lewin casually mentioned that
Already?! Ausmas was drafted in 1987! He has played in the MLs for 17 seasons. 17! But he has "already" moved into the top 10 in games-played. That's like going back to the 1500's and saying, "Did you year about that Michelangelo guy? He already finished the Sistine Chapel!"
"Cal Ripken already became the record-holder for consecutive games played." This is fun...you should try it.
Number Three:
This is an email from my dad on Saturday:
...like a slider without the spin?!" Seriously, I can't make this stuff up! What' next?...
Seriously, which of those two questions is more insane? I have thought about it for a few minutes now and I'm still not sure. I can't believe it...really, I can't. Absolute unintentional greatness!
The Rangers have a day off tomorrow but will take the field again on Tuesday. Needless to say, there will be a "Lewinism" update on Wednesday.
Lewinism: any statement made during a baseball game that indicates a complete lack of baseball knowledge, leaving the audience temporarily motionless as they attempt to comprehend what was just said.
The "Lewinism" updates will detail numerous items verifying that Josh Lewin actually knows nothing about baseball.
Number One:
Today against the Dodgers, Lewin stated,
"TAG (Tom Grieve), despite all the power that Loney brings to the table - he is a guy that walks almost as much as he strikes out."
You may be asking yourself, "What James Loney is Lewin talking about? The only James Loney that I'm aware of is not a power-hitter and has actually been criticized because of his lack of power."
Confusion is the correct response. Yes, the "powerful" Loney has managed to tally an impressive two homeruns this year in 63 games. Yep, he's on pace for anywhere from 5-6 homeruns this year. He is a very, very "powerful" 1st baseman.
Grieve just responded with, "Well, Loney is more of a Lyle Overbay or Mark Grace-type hitter."
And then came the funniest part of the exchange: Lewin responded with, "Yep."
He doesn't even recognize when someone is attempting to call him out! If Grieve wasn't such a nice guy, he would respond more along these lines: "Actually Josh, you are completely wrong. Loney is not a "power" guy - he is a "contact" guy...a fact that renders your previous comment absolutely meaningless."
Grieve has to call him out at some point. It has to happen...someone tell me that it has to happen.
Number Two:
In the top of the 7th inning of today's game, Brad Ausmus walked to the plate. Lewin casually mentioned that
"...Ausmus is already in the top 10 in terms of games-caught by major-league catchers."
Already?! Ausmas was drafted in 1987! He has played in the MLs for 17 seasons. 17! But he has "already" moved into the top 10 in games-played. That's like going back to the 1500's and saying, "Did you year about that Michelangelo guy? He already finished the Sistine Chapel!"
"Cal Ripken already became the record-holder for consecutive games played." This is fun...you should try it.
Number Three:
This is an email from my dad on Saturday:
In the 3rd inning, Josh wanted TAG to explain exactly what a cutter is: "So it’s like a slider but without the spin?"
Really? Are you kidding me? Without the spin? I would love to see Lewin explain the physics behind that one.
...like a slider without the spin?!" Seriously, I can't make this stuff up! What' next?...
"So the curve is like the fastball except that your arm curls around your head before you throw it, right?
Seriously, which of those two questions is more insane? I have thought about it for a few minutes now and I'm still not sure. I can't believe it...really, I can't. Absolute unintentional greatness!
The Rangers have a day off tomorrow but will take the field again on Tuesday. Needless to say, there will be a "Lewinism" update on Wednesday.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Why Don't You Like Magic?
Why don't you like Magic?
No, I’m not talking about the creepy type of magic that you see a pizza-delivery-guy/magician/clown do at a 4-year-old’s birthday party; I’m talking about the Orlando Magic. There is zero hype around this year’s NBA Finals. Seriously, it has drawn slightly more attention than a Petty Theft concert.
I just don’t know why. The Lakers obviously own a huge following – Lakers’ “fans” come out of the woodwork this time of year. Suddenly your coworker is wearing a Kobe jersey and has “always been a Lakers fan.” Los Angeles has a storied history and Kobe is one of the best players in the league – so I get why they would attract otherwise neutral fans.
But why don’t people like this Orlando team? Dwight Howard is one of the most talented and charismatic players in the game. He entertains during the dunk-contest, he plays hard, he doesn’t get into off-the-court trouble…he is the type of superstar that you want on your team. But for some reason, people don't connect with him and I’m not sure why.
When the Spurs were putting everyone to sleep during their championship runs, I could fully understand and appreciate why no one outside of San Antonio cared. They were simply boring all the way around. Their coach was boring; their superstar was boring; their style of play was boring. Like hockey and soccer – I get why people aren’t interested (ie…it’s really boring).
Orlando is the complete opposite. Porn-Stache - I mean Stan Van Gundy - is a pretty funny coach, whether it’s intentional or not. Dwight Howard has 15-minute conversations with Jack Nicholson before games in LA. Orlando runs up and down the court and shoots a ton of 3’s. They should be the team that neutral fans gravitate to, but I honestly can’t remember a Finals series that has had less appeal for the average sports fan.
Even the Spurs and Ben-Stein-Duncan had more appeal – even if it was people tuning in simply to root against them. Why aren’t the Lakers looked at as villains – and in turn – Orlando as the saviors? Why aren’t people taking an interest in rooting against Kobe? He is an easy guy to dislike.
After thinking about this for a while, I developed an explanation that I call the “Ruined Dream Theory.” Basically, it states that all neutral fans want to see the two best and most interesting teams match up in the championship game. Celtics-Lakers. Cowboys-Steelers. Yankees-Cubs. This year, all fans - in addition to the NBA Commissioner – wanted a Lebron-Kobe finale. During the Orlando-Cleveland series, everyone not living in Orlando was pulling for the fighting Lebrons to pull out a series win leading to the dream match-up in the Finals. Orlando needed to lose for this to happen...so people began to root against them.
In a way, I believe that fans have turned on Orlando because the Magic inadvertently ruined this NBA season. All year, everyone has talked about how great it would be to see King James face off against Kobe - but the dream has been ruined and Orlando is to blame.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I am beginning to hate Orlando. Kobe vs. James? It doesn’t get better than that…and it was all flushed down the drain by the stupid Orlando Magic.
Based on this newly found theory – please join me in boycotting the remaining Finals’ games. If the viewer-ship remains low, Commissioner David Stern will be forced to, once again, resort to “fixing” the NBA Playoffs…and we will all be better off for it.
No, I’m not talking about the creepy type of magic that you see a pizza-delivery-guy/magician/clown do at a 4-year-old’s birthday party; I’m talking about the Orlando Magic. There is zero hype around this year’s NBA Finals. Seriously, it has drawn slightly more attention than a Petty Theft concert.
I just don’t know why. The Lakers obviously own a huge following – Lakers’ “fans” come out of the woodwork this time of year. Suddenly your coworker is wearing a Kobe jersey and has “always been a Lakers fan.” Los Angeles has a storied history and Kobe is one of the best players in the league – so I get why they would attract otherwise neutral fans.
But why don’t people like this Orlando team? Dwight Howard is one of the most talented and charismatic players in the game. He entertains during the dunk-contest, he plays hard, he doesn’t get into off-the-court trouble…he is the type of superstar that you want on your team. But for some reason, people don't connect with him and I’m not sure why.
When the Spurs were putting everyone to sleep during their championship runs, I could fully understand and appreciate why no one outside of San Antonio cared. They were simply boring all the way around. Their coach was boring; their superstar was boring; their style of play was boring. Like hockey and soccer – I get why people aren’t interested (ie…it’s really boring).
Orlando is the complete opposite. Porn-Stache - I mean Stan Van Gundy - is a pretty funny coach, whether it’s intentional or not. Dwight Howard has 15-minute conversations with Jack Nicholson before games in LA. Orlando runs up and down the court and shoots a ton of 3’s. They should be the team that neutral fans gravitate to, but I honestly can’t remember a Finals series that has had less appeal for the average sports fan.
Even the Spurs and Ben-Stein-Duncan had more appeal – even if it was people tuning in simply to root against them. Why aren’t the Lakers looked at as villains – and in turn – Orlando as the saviors? Why aren’t people taking an interest in rooting against Kobe? He is an easy guy to dislike.
After thinking about this for a while, I developed an explanation that I call the “Ruined Dream Theory.” Basically, it states that all neutral fans want to see the two best and most interesting teams match up in the championship game. Celtics-Lakers. Cowboys-Steelers. Yankees-Cubs. This year, all fans - in addition to the NBA Commissioner – wanted a Lebron-Kobe finale. During the Orlando-Cleveland series, everyone not living in Orlando was pulling for the fighting Lebrons to pull out a series win leading to the dream match-up in the Finals. Orlando needed to lose for this to happen...so people began to root against them.
In a way, I believe that fans have turned on Orlando because the Magic inadvertently ruined this NBA season. All year, everyone has talked about how great it would be to see King James face off against Kobe - but the dream has been ruined and Orlando is to blame.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I am beginning to hate Orlando. Kobe vs. James? It doesn’t get better than that…and it was all flushed down the drain by the stupid Orlando Magic.
Based on this newly found theory – please join me in boycotting the remaining Finals’ games. If the viewer-ship remains low, Commissioner David Stern will be forced to, once again, resort to “fixing” the NBA Playoffs…and we will all be better off for it.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Ron Washington Option
After the Texas Rangers picked up Ron Washington’s contract option for 2010, I emailed my dad to see what he thought:
Blair @ 8:23am
Dad – what do you think about Washington coming back next year?
Dad @ 8:34am
OK, let me get this straight...through one-third of the season, Texas is 9 games over .500 after playing one of the weakest schedules in the American League and we feel the need to jump out there and give Ron Washington an extension? Was there some reason to knee jerk this move now? Was there this uncertainty in the clubhouse? Were we afraid we were gonna lose Washington to another team? I venture to say that this young club is 9 games over in spite of Ron Washington, not because of him.
Blair @ 8:43am
So…you liked the move?
Dad @ 8:54am
Look - sometimes good moves don't work, sometimes dumb moves do, but playing it by “the book" works more times than not...that's how it became "the book!” This team needs Wash to just get out of the way...try not to trip over the bats and balls as we roll them out there. Wash has made a litany of bad moves so far this year, but just for brevity sake, let's look at Monday’s game:
6th inning, runners on 1st and 3rd with one out and we've just been given 3 gift runs to draw within 4-3. With Elvis Andrus at the plate, Wash is not content to sit idly by and let the game take care of itself. Instead, the genius of Wash once again raises its ugly head: a SQUEEZE PLAY? Are you kidding me? Elvis Andrus at the plate...22 strike-outs in 163 at-bats...too fast to be doubled-up...and Wash goes with the all-or-nothing squeeze play just to tie?
There are ten ways to score a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Ground out, error, sac fly, etc…Heaven forbid Andrus get the opportunity to get a base-hit where we're in position to go ahead in the game. Not to mention – if he somehow doesn't get the runner home - our leading RBI guy (Kinsler) is on deck. I take my chances 100 times out of 100 on Andrus making contact and/or Kinsler coming through.
Mike Basik (the Ticket) justified the move based on the fact that National League teams “have pitchers do it all the time.” Do you know why pitchers do it all the time? Because they hit .127 and strike-out more times than they don’t. If a batter is hitting .275 - and makes consistent contact – calling for a squeeze play is idiotic. The failed squeeze left Texas down a run and they eventually lost 6-3.
It was a ridiculous decision, but what is even more ridiculous is the fact we just gave this guy an extension. Idiocy!
Blair @ 8:58am
So…you liked the move?
Blair @ 8:23am
Dad – what do you think about Washington coming back next year?
Dad @ 8:34am
OK, let me get this straight...through one-third of the season, Texas is 9 games over .500 after playing one of the weakest schedules in the American League and we feel the need to jump out there and give Ron Washington an extension? Was there some reason to knee jerk this move now? Was there this uncertainty in the clubhouse? Were we afraid we were gonna lose Washington to another team? I venture to say that this young club is 9 games over in spite of Ron Washington, not because of him.
Blair @ 8:43am
So…you liked the move?
Dad @ 8:54am
Look - sometimes good moves don't work, sometimes dumb moves do, but playing it by “the book" works more times than not...that's how it became "the book!” This team needs Wash to just get out of the way...try not to trip over the bats and balls as we roll them out there. Wash has made a litany of bad moves so far this year, but just for brevity sake, let's look at Monday’s game:
6th inning, runners on 1st and 3rd with one out and we've just been given 3 gift runs to draw within 4-3. With Elvis Andrus at the plate, Wash is not content to sit idly by and let the game take care of itself. Instead, the genius of Wash once again raises its ugly head: a SQUEEZE PLAY? Are you kidding me? Elvis Andrus at the plate...22 strike-outs in 163 at-bats...too fast to be doubled-up...and Wash goes with the all-or-nothing squeeze play just to tie?
There are ten ways to score a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Ground out, error, sac fly, etc…Heaven forbid Andrus get the opportunity to get a base-hit where we're in position to go ahead in the game. Not to mention – if he somehow doesn't get the runner home - our leading RBI guy (Kinsler) is on deck. I take my chances 100 times out of 100 on Andrus making contact and/or Kinsler coming through.
Mike Basik (the Ticket) justified the move based on the fact that National League teams “have pitchers do it all the time.” Do you know why pitchers do it all the time? Because they hit .127 and strike-out more times than they don’t. If a batter is hitting .275 - and makes consistent contact – calling for a squeeze play is idiotic. The failed squeeze left Texas down a run and they eventually lost 6-3.
It was a ridiculous decision, but what is even more ridiculous is the fact we just gave this guy an extension. Idiocy!
Blair @ 8:58am
So…you liked the move?
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Old School v GenX: Round 1
My dad was at the Rangers’ game on Saturday and sent me a text message regarding Michael Young that spiraled into an in-depth text-message battle:
Dad @ 1:31
Michael Young is the best pure “hitter” in baseball. He hits the ball where it’s pitched, always has good at bats and does what it takes to win the game. He is just awesome to watch.
Blair @ 1:37
He has been good so far this year...but OPS below .785 in 2007 and 2008.
Dad @ 1:45
Very comparable stats to Jeter each year and Young has more productive years to come. Not fair to compare a SS to sluggers by using OPS. Compare them to the role they play.
Blair at 2:11
Jeter has had a significantly better average and much better OBP throughout his career:
Derek Jeter: .316/.386/.458 (.844)
Hanley Ramirez: .309/.381/.528 (.909)
Miguel Tejada: .288/.342/.472 (.814)
Michael Young: .347/.445/.301 (.792)
Dad @ 2:19
OK…so Young is right there with some of the best short-stops in the game. Are you trying to make my case for me?
Blair @ 2:31
Ok old man – let me break it down for you:
Young had a total of 3 years in which he had an OPS above .785…
Jeter has 10 out of 14…
Tejada has 8 out of 12…
Hanley Ramirez has 3 out of 3 (while stealing 50 bases every year)…
He has had 3 above-average offensive years in 9 seasons. A career .300 hitter with a career OBP of .345 means that he simply doesn’t do a very good job of getting on base. I understand that every player isn’t going to hit for a ton of power – but a .345 OBP isn’t very good if you aren’t providing the team with other production (steals, power, etc…)
It’s a lot easier to get 200 hits every year when you aren’t willing to take a walk.
Dad @ 2:53
Wrong. As usual – you aren’t old or wise enough to recognize the flaws in your logic.
Dad @ 1:31
Michael Young is the best pure “hitter” in baseball. He hits the ball where it’s pitched, always has good at bats and does what it takes to win the game. He is just awesome to watch.
Blair @ 1:37
He has been good so far this year...but OPS below .785 in 2007 and 2008.
Dad @ 1:45
Very comparable stats to Jeter each year and Young has more productive years to come. Not fair to compare a SS to sluggers by using OPS. Compare them to the role they play.
Blair at 2:11
Jeter has had a significantly better average and much better OBP throughout his career:
Derek Jeter: .316/.386/.458 (.844)
Hanley Ramirez: .309/.381/.528 (.909)
Miguel Tejada: .288/.342/.472 (.814)
Michael Young: .347/.445/.301 (.792)
Dad @ 2:19
OK…so Young is right there with some of the best short-stops in the game. Are you trying to make my case for me?
Blair @ 2:31
Ok old man – let me break it down for you:
Young had a total of 3 years in which he had an OPS above .785…
Jeter has 10 out of 14…
Tejada has 8 out of 12…
Hanley Ramirez has 3 out of 3 (while stealing 50 bases every year)…
He has had 3 above-average offensive years in 9 seasons. A career .300 hitter with a career OBP of .345 means that he simply doesn’t do a very good job of getting on base. I understand that every player isn’t going to hit for a ton of power – but a .345 OBP isn’t very good if you aren’t providing the team with other production (steals, power, etc…)
It’s a lot easier to get 200 hits every year when you aren’t willing to take a walk.
Dad @ 2:53
Wrong. As usual – you aren’t old or wise enough to recognize the flaws in your logic.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Disturbing Rangers' Trend
After losing two of three to the Yankees, the Rangers continued a disturbing trend: they can't beat good teams.
During the first two months of 2009, Texas has played 31 of 46 games against teams with a losing record. In other words, the Rangers have benefited by playing 2/3 of their games against poor competition. To their credit, Texas has taken care of business and beaten the teams that they should beat.
In 31 games against teams with a losing record, the Rangers have produced:
* Record: 22-9 (.710 winning%)
* Team ERA: 4.22
* Runs/Game: 5.44
* Run Differential: 1.22
In 15 games against teams with a winning record, they have produced:
* Record: 5-10 (.333 winning%)
* Team ERA: 5.38
* Runs/Game: 3.80
* Run Differential: - 1.58
The splits are somewhat understandable: most teams will have better numbers against weaker competition than they do against upper-echelon teams. Having said that, the next month looms large for the Rangers' 2009 campaign: Texas faces winning teams in 13 of their next 17 games (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers).
If this trend continues, Texas may find itself in a familiar place: hovering near the .500 mark. But if the Rangers can find a way to raise their game to the next level and post some wins against the big boys, they will solidify their spot as a legitimate contender.
The next month should be fun!
During the first two months of 2009, Texas has played 31 of 46 games against teams with a losing record. In other words, the Rangers have benefited by playing 2/3 of their games against poor competition. To their credit, Texas has taken care of business and beaten the teams that they should beat.
In 31 games against teams with a losing record, the Rangers have produced:
* Record: 22-9 (.710 winning%)
* Team ERA: 4.22
* Runs/Game: 5.44
* Run Differential: 1.22
In 15 games against teams with a winning record, they have produced:
* Record: 5-10 (.333 winning%)
* Team ERA: 5.38
* Runs/Game: 3.80
* Run Differential: - 1.58
The splits are somewhat understandable: most teams will have better numbers against weaker competition than they do against upper-echelon teams. Having said that, the next month looms large for the Rangers' 2009 campaign: Texas faces winning teams in 13 of their next 17 games (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers).
If this trend continues, Texas may find itself in a familiar place: hovering near the .500 mark. But if the Rangers can find a way to raise their game to the next level and post some wins against the big boys, they will solidify their spot as a legitimate contender.
The next month should be fun!
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Random Ranger Thoughts
Yesterday, after Texas was destroyed by the Yanks, my dad sent me an email that pretty well summed up the afternoon. It wasn't a fun game to watch:
That pretty much sums it up.
On a day when 7 of the major league teams scored in double digits (23% of the teams) and 4 of the games were decided by at least 10 runs (26% of the games) the Rangers were not quite as noticeable by their ineptness as they normally might have been. The game against the Yankees did reveal a concerning trend and no, it's not that Matt Harrison has been exposed as having only average major league stuff or that he might not be the real deal after all, it's the Ranger batting order showing an inconsistency that has almost reached the alarming point.
In a lineup full of bashers but very few "professional" hitters, once again the inability to make good contact and to know the strike zone was evident. A four hitter? Are you serious?? Against Phil Hughes? The ability to compete at the plate on a consistent basis requires hitters who know the strike zone, are able to hit the ball where it's pitched (see Michael Young) and hitters that can make good contact on a regular basis. This lineup is filled with too many 230 hitters at this point. Even Kinsler, who we can all agree is a star, is in a big slump mainly because of his insistence on pulling every pitch. There are not many major-leaguers that can swing at the pitches the Ranger swing at and get any better results than the Rangers do. Even Josh Hamilton is going to be prone to droughts of low power production and hitless nights if he doesn't become more selective at the plate.
I know we're going to stay with Davis even during his struggles but do we need to really stay with the Blalocks of the world? Is his flailing worth his once a week dinger? I know they've come at opportune times, but that won't always be the case. Let's start filling some of these holes in our batting order and work on the approach of our young stars. Staying in a slump for months (Davis) can irreparably harm a young players psyche forever. We have the best hitting coach in baseball so maybe it's time to lay down the law: learn the strike zone or grab a seat. Look in the farm system for a DH that has the potential to hit 300...we don't need more power we need more base runners. Just some random thoughts
That pretty much sums it up.
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