Coming into this series, most commentary surrounded the juxtaposition of the veteran-laden Mavericks team facing a young and explosive Miami Heat. However, as the series has progressed, 26-year-old LeBron is the player that continues to disappear down the stretch.
Some have opined that LeBron is simply deferring to Wade while others have cited the Dallas defense as a reason for the LeBron Houdini act. Both assertions are probably correct in some respects, but one issue doesn't seem to garner the same level of attention as the aforementioned explanations: LeBron is tired.
"LeBron is 26," Dwyane Wade said. "He’s not going to wear down."
Are we sure about that?
Upon LeBron's arrival, most basketball analysts asserted that Miami's lack of depth would detrimentally affect the team's long-term potential. Commentators referenced the grind of an 82 game regular season and the physical toll dished out during a run through the Eastern Conference postseason. To its credit, the Heat shrugged off the critiques and rolled through the Eastern conference, leaving a trail of bloody teams in their wake. Depth has not been an issue for the team as a whole and the cyborg known as LeBron James has shown no ill-effects of the increased workload.
Until now.
After Game 4, James is now a combined 3-of-12 in the 4th quarter throughout the Finals. Why? Fatigue seems like a logical explanation.
LeBron has been asked to play substantially more minutes per game during this postseason than any other player still standing. Through 19 postseason games, James is averaging 44 minutes/game. Dirk has averaged the most playing time for the Mavericks, coming in at 39 minutes/game.
While that may not seem like a significant difference, consider the fact that each of the players mentioned have played in 19 postseason games this season.
Total Postseason Minutes
LeBron: 836
Dirk: 741
LeBron has played an additional 95 minutes this posteason...essentially equating to playing two more postseason games than Dirk has, in terms of minutes played. And these have not been low-pressure minutes. LeBron's minutes involve being one of the two primary offensive options on every possession of the game while also being asked to lock down one of the opposing team's best scorers. For 44 minutes. Every game. All season long.
Another issue: LeBron's heavy workload didn't begin in the playoffs. During the regular season, James had the sixth-highest per-game average in terms of minutes played at 39 minutes/game. Dirk averaged 34.
Regular Season Minutes
LeBron: 3063
Dirk: 2503
LeBron played 560 more minutes than Dirk during the regular season. In other words, he essentially played almost 12 additional regular season games in terms of minutes played. If you combine the minutes in the regular season with the postseason minutes, James has played approximately 14 more games than Nowitzki throughout this season.
Despite LeBron's gifted athleticism and physical build, playing almost every minute of every game during the regular season and throughout a grueling postseason has to eventually affect one's production.
While we like to believe that James was built with metal and steel, it appears that he may be made of flesh and blood after all.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
The Paul Molitor Myth
The Paul Molitor Myth
It remains unlikely that Michael Young is traded before the season starts (as discussed in detail by Jamey Newberg here).
In summation, in order to avoid weakening the 2011 club, Texas would need to trade Young for a player that could help the Rangers win this year. Unfortunately, teams that would be interested in a 34-year-old DH/second-baseman are also looking to contend in 2011 – meaning that they are unlikely to trade away players who can contribute this year.
During the last week (and more generally, over the last couple of years), many pundits have suggested that Michael Young will end his career as a Paul Molitor-type DH. Like Young, Molitor came up as a second-baseman and then moved around the diamond, eventually settling at DH for the last portion of his career. Molitor began getting the majority of his starts at DH when he turned 34 (the current age of Young). Realistically, that’s where the similarities stop.
Beginning at age 34, Molitor posted these numbers as a primary DH:
Age 34: .325/.399/.489 (.888)
Age 35: .320/.389/.461 (.851)
Age 36: .332/.402/.509 (.911)
Age 37: .341/.410/.518 (.927)
Average: .330/.400/.494 (.894)
Here are Young’s last four seasons (age 30-33):
Age 30: .315/.366/.418 (.783)
Age 31: .284/.339/.402 (.741)
Age 32: .322/.374/.518 (.892)
Age 33: .284/.330/.444 (.774)
Average: .301/.352/.445 (.798)
During the last four years for Young, years that are typically considered near the “prime” for most players, he has managed to produce an average yearly OPS slightly below .800.
During the four years in which Molitor was age 34 – 37, years in which players typically decline, he produced an average yearly OPS slightly below .900.
How about home/away splits?
Molitor During Age 34-37 Seasons:
Home OPS: .910
Away OPS: .876
Young During Age 30- 33 Seasons:
Home OPS: .855 (very similar to his career Home OPS of .859)
Away OPS: .742 (very similar to his career Away OPS of .733)
Though Molitor was a better hitter at home, he was still a very above-average hitter on the road.
Young, on the other hand, has been an above-average hitter at home and a below-average hitter on the road. If Young’s ability to consistently produce really is a strength of his, one must take into account the fact that he is consistently a below-average hitter away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
The goal is not to suggest that Young is a bad hitter or a useless player. In fact, he could be a very valuable part of this team moving forward. But this is just a reality check. For whatever reason, Young is considered by many Rangers fans as a great player (Evan Grant recently suggested placing a statue of Young in RBiA). But putting aside the intangibles that he possesses (assuming you consider them relevant), Young’s on-field production is solid but unspectacular. Put Young on the Washington Nationals and people in the DFW area wouldn't even consider labeling him as a "great" player. On the flip side, Paul Molitor was one of the best hitters in baseball for a significant period of time (before the PED era).
Michael Young is the Rangers’ best option at full-time DH for 2011 and who knows, maybe he will have a late-career boom as a DH. But, based on his recent numbers and his career production, it seems unrealistic to suggest that Michael Young will become a Molitor-clone at DH. We should be satisfied if Young can muster average ML production from this point forward and we should refrain from creating expectations for Young that he will never fulfill.
It remains unlikely that Michael Young is traded before the season starts (as discussed in detail by Jamey Newberg here).
In summation, in order to avoid weakening the 2011 club, Texas would need to trade Young for a player that could help the Rangers win this year. Unfortunately, teams that would be interested in a 34-year-old DH/second-baseman are also looking to contend in 2011 – meaning that they are unlikely to trade away players who can contribute this year.
During the last week (and more generally, over the last couple of years), many pundits have suggested that Michael Young will end his career as a Paul Molitor-type DH. Like Young, Molitor came up as a second-baseman and then moved around the diamond, eventually settling at DH for the last portion of his career. Molitor began getting the majority of his starts at DH when he turned 34 (the current age of Young). Realistically, that’s where the similarities stop.
Beginning at age 34, Molitor posted these numbers as a primary DH:
Age 34: .325/.399/.489 (.888)
Age 35: .320/.389/.461 (.851)
Age 36: .332/.402/.509 (.911)
Age 37: .341/.410/.518 (.927)
Average: .330/.400/.494 (.894)
Here are Young’s last four seasons (age 30-33):
Age 30: .315/.366/.418 (.783)
Age 31: .284/.339/.402 (.741)
Age 32: .322/.374/.518 (.892)
Age 33: .284/.330/.444 (.774)
Average: .301/.352/.445 (.798)
During the last four years for Young, years that are typically considered near the “prime” for most players, he has managed to produce an average yearly OPS slightly below .800.
During the four years in which Molitor was age 34 – 37, years in which players typically decline, he produced an average yearly OPS slightly below .900.
How about home/away splits?
Molitor During Age 34-37 Seasons:
Home OPS: .910
Away OPS: .876
Young During Age 30- 33 Seasons:
Home OPS: .855 (very similar to his career Home OPS of .859)
Away OPS: .742 (very similar to his career Away OPS of .733)
Though Molitor was a better hitter at home, he was still a very above-average hitter on the road.
Young, on the other hand, has been an above-average hitter at home and a below-average hitter on the road. If Young’s ability to consistently produce really is a strength of his, one must take into account the fact that he is consistently a below-average hitter away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
The goal is not to suggest that Young is a bad hitter or a useless player. In fact, he could be a very valuable part of this team moving forward. But this is just a reality check. For whatever reason, Young is considered by many Rangers fans as a great player (Evan Grant recently suggested placing a statue of Young in RBiA). But putting aside the intangibles that he possesses (assuming you consider them relevant), Young’s on-field production is solid but unspectacular. Put Young on the Washington Nationals and people in the DFW area wouldn't even consider labeling him as a "great" player. On the flip side, Paul Molitor was one of the best hitters in baseball for a significant period of time (before the PED era).
Michael Young is the Rangers’ best option at full-time DH for 2011 and who knows, maybe he will have a late-career boom as a DH. But, based on his recent numbers and his career production, it seems unrealistic to suggest that Michael Young will become a Molitor-clone at DH. We should be satisfied if Young can muster average ML production from this point forward and we should refrain from creating expectations for Young that he will never fulfill.
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