The Paul Molitor Myth

The Paul Molitor Myth

It remains unlikely that Michael Young is traded before the season starts (as discussed in detail by Jamey Newberg here).

In summation, in order to avoid weakening the 2011 club, Texas would need to trade Young for a player that could help the Rangers win this year. Unfortunately, teams that would be interested in a 34-year-old DH/second-baseman are also looking to contend in 2011 – meaning that they are unlikely to trade away players who can contribute this year.

During the last week (and more generally, over the last couple of years), many pundits have suggested that Michael Young will end his career as a Paul Molitor-type DH. Like Young, Molitor came up as a second-baseman and then moved around the diamond, eventually settling at DH for the last portion of his career. Molitor began getting the majority of his starts at DH when he turned 34 (the current age of Young). Realistically, that’s where the similarities stop.

Beginning at age 34, Molitor posted these numbers as a primary DH:

Age 34: .325/.399/.489 (.888)
Age 35: .320/.389/.461 (.851)
Age 36: .332/.402/.509 (.911)
Age 37: .341/.410/.518 (.927)
Average: .330/.400/.494 (.894)

Here are Young’s last four seasons (age 30-33):

Age 30: .315/.366/.418 (.783)
Age 31: .284/.339/.402 (.741)
Age 32: .322/.374/.518 (.892)
Age 33: .284/.330/.444 (.774)
Average: .301/.352/.445 (.798)

During the last four years for Young, years that are typically considered near the “prime” for most players, he has managed to produce an average yearly OPS slightly below .800.

During the four years in which Molitor was age 34 – 37, years in which players typically decline, he produced an average yearly OPS slightly below .900.

How about home/away splits?

Molitor During Age 34-37 Seasons:
Home OPS: .910
Away OPS: .876

Young During Age 30- 33 Seasons:
Home OPS: .855 (very similar to his career Home OPS of .859)
Away OPS: .742 (very similar to his career Away OPS of .733)

Though Molitor was a better hitter at home, he was still a very above-average hitter on the road.

Young, on the other hand, has been an above-average hitter at home and a below-average hitter on the road. If Young’s ability to consistently produce really is a strength of his, one must take into account the fact that he is consistently a below-average hitter away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

The goal is not to suggest that Young is a bad hitter or a useless player. In fact, he could be a very valuable part of this team moving forward. But this is just a reality check. For whatever reason, Young is considered by many Rangers fans as a great player (Evan Grant recently suggested placing a statue of Young in RBiA). But putting aside the intangibles that he possesses (assuming you consider them relevant), Young’s on-field production is solid but unspectacular. Put Young on the Washington Nationals and people in the DFW area wouldn't even consider labeling him as a "great" player. On the flip side, Paul Molitor was one of the best hitters in baseball for a significant period of time (before the PED era).

Michael Young is the Rangers’ best option at full-time DH for 2011 and who knows, maybe he will have a late-career boom as a DH. But, based on his recent numbers and his career production, it seems unrealistic to suggest that Michael Young will become a Molitor-clone at DH. We should be satisfied if Young can muster average ML production from this point forward and we should refrain from creating expectations for Young that he will never fulfill.